Senate Prediction

submitted by Max Sparber

Nov 23 2008 — 10:54pm

FiveThirtyEight is predicting Franken will win by all of 27 votes. How’s that for math!

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9 Reader Comments

sandburg Nov 24 2008
12:34 am

Is this where we place our bets? I’ll say Franken, but with 20 votes.

sandburg Nov 24 2008
12:35 am

(That is not based on any sort of mathematical formula or simulation, fyi.)

kurtis Nov 24 2008
6:47 am

I really wasn’t able to follow Nate’s argument this time. Too much math, not enough name calling. He should just accuse both sides of cheating like the Star Tribune commenters.

kurtis Nov 24 2008
6:51 am

I’d check line 54 of the rules.input_evaluators.inc script and make sure the first argument in the callback to the call_user_func_array() function is valid.

g rote Nov 24 2008
7:20 am

I wonder if the sports books in Vegas have an over/under line on this. If it was at Franken @ 27 votes I would take the under.

jeffk Nov 24 2008
7:44 am

The first time I read it I was confused too; it’s not very well explained. But in a word, I think what he’s doing is using the correlation between Franken gaining votes and a lack of challenges to estimate what percentage of the challenges will fall for Franken. It’s interesting, and I suppose it’s about the best statistical analysis a person could do with the information we have, but it’s a stretch. The statistical error bars are such that this only gives Franken a 52-48 edge (this is mentioned later in the thread), and that’s assuming the methodology is right. and everything is appropriately random, which of course it isn’t.

Tom Bartel Nov 24 2008
8:43 am

My prediction is a small nuclear explosion at Powerline if Franken wins.

Tom Bartel Nov 24 2008
8:45 am

And that line 54 stuff is just the sort of evidence Powerline will use to prove that Franken cheated.

justpbob Nov 24 2008
8:52 am

Both righty tighty and lefty loosey blogs feed on outrage, Tom.

They might be secretly rooting for Franken. It will give them six years of material.