Secrets of the City

Is this where we place our bets? I’ll say Franken, but with 20 votes.

(That is not based on any sort of mathematical formula or simulation, fyi.)

I really wasn’t able to follow Nate’s argument this time. Too much math, not enough name calling. He should just accuse both sides of cheating like the Star Tribune commenters.

I’d check line 54 of the rules.input_evaluators.inc script and make sure the first argument in the callback to the call_user_func_array() function is valid.

I wonder if the sports books in Vegas have an over/under line on this. If it was at Franken @ 27 votes I would take the under.

The first time I read it I was confused too; it’s not very well explained. But in a word, I think what he’s doing is using the correlation between Franken gaining votes and a lack of challenges to estimate what percentage of the challenges will fall for Franken. It’s interesting, and I suppose it’s about the best statistical analysis a person could do with the information we have, but it’s a stretch. The statistical error bars are such that this only gives Franken a 52-48 edge (this is mentioned later in the thread), and that’s assuming the methodology is right. and everything is appropriately random, which of course it isn’t.

My prediction is a small nuclear explosion at Powerline if Franken wins.

And that line 54 stuff is just the sort of evidence Powerline will use to prove that Franken cheated.

Both righty tighty and lefty loosey blogs feed on outrage, Tom.

They might be secretly rooting for Franken. It will give them six years of material.