Looks like the road to the presidency is getting a bit bumpy for Sarah Palin.
The Daily Beast speculates that MN Governor Tim Pawlenty is now finding himself in a stronger position to contest the nomination in 2012:
On paper, Tim Pawlenty’s appeal is clear. As the two-term governor of Minnesota, he has a demonstrated ability to win the votes of Democrats and independents. To defeat Barack Obama, Republicans will have to break out of their demographic box, and that means winning races in the Upper Midwest and other regions that have proven inhospitable terrain for at least the last decade. As the first member of his working-class family to graduate from college, Pawlenty has a compelling personal story.
Pawlenty also has a reputation as a likable and even gentle campaigner, who isn’t inclined to use scorched-earth tactics against his opponents, a break with the anger to tea-party activists who’ve energized the conservative base but who might also turn off swing voters who like their leader even-tempered.
What does this say about Minnesota? Pawlenty’s election margin was greater in 2002 than in 2006, and we know that relations between the Governor and legislative Democrats are more cold than warm. Could Pawlenty become as polarizing a figure on the national political stage as Palin or Bachmann, or will he find he needs to moderate his rhetoric in order to broaden his appeal?
15 Reader Comments
8:00 am
As a relative unknown on the national stage, Pawlenty will seem attractive to the national political media, who seem to love the horse race of elections more than hard work of governing.
Pawlenty has three advantages (for now):
1) He’s a fresh face with little if any national baggage
2) He’s not Sarah Palin, and is therefor The Anti-Sarah
3) He has never lost in a national primary/caucus
10:51 am
If he can appeal to the angry independent voter he has a good shot at it. He is playing to his base right now. Sara has no chance of winning in the general election but Pawlenty comes across as a moderate compared to her. I don’t think holding a hard line on spending and the budget will hert him at all. Most of the people will support what he did in Minnesota. He can come out and say that he knows how to handle the tax and spend democrats and this will resonate with both his base and the independents. Oboma is a one term president. The mood of the county is moving against his policies and a perceived moderate like Tim has a good shot at it. I predict that the democrats take a major beating in the midterms and this could help a guy like pawlenty.
11:14 am
“Most of the people will support what he did in Minnesota”
Except most Minnesotans. Pawlenty has never garnered more than 50% of the vote for governor.
“Oboma is a one term president”
You may be right about Oboma. But I think Obama can win a second term easily. History suggests that the GOP might make some gains in the midterms, but they have a lot of ground to make in the House, and are at a disadvantage in the Senate, where four Republicans are retiring, compaired to two Democrats. So we’ll see.
11:40 am
Pawlenty? – PAW lenty – Puh-lenty …..
Puh-lease.
Could you all imagine we Americans going around talking about \President Paw-lenty\? Horrid. The sound alone is enough to make you want to vote for any of his opponents.
11:51 am
They just need to learn to call him T-Paw, as we do.
12:24 pm
If he can appeal to the angry independent voter he has a good shot at it. He is playing to his base right now. Sara has no chance of winning in the general election but Pawlenty comes across as a moderate compared to her.
That may well prove true but … the fight right now is for the party nomination, and that’s what the article is covering. How much of a realistic chance does T-Paw have against Palin, Romney, and Huckabee for the GOP nomination?
I don’t think Palin will be a factor in the GOP a year from now. At all. Her base of support is more independent than party-affiliated. She could become the 2012 equivalent of Roosevelt’s Bull Moose Party but with an added advantage of appealing to non-self-GOP-identified voters who would cast a ballot in an election based on the gender (i.e. the anti-Obama PUMAs) of a candidate.
2:04 pm
Timmy has a good chance against Palin, Rommney and Huckabee. The big three are the god crowd and the base loves them. However, the intellectual wing of the party will prevail over time. They all three are running on values, i.e. the big three G’s, God, Guns and Gynecology. This will not make it in the general election. Right now they need to get the support of these people but the libertarian independants and the fiscal Conservatives that tolerate the Jesus crap will not vote for Palin, Rommney or Huckabee in the general election. Timmy runs the middle, the other three will split the vote between them leaving T-paw the winner. The republicans have not come to terms with the fact that the religious crowd is shrinking and the rest of us will not vote for them. I for one will never vote for an Evangelical as long as I live. I would rather throw my vote away. Look at what the party did to Ron Paul, they marginalized him and this hurt their party in the last election and long run. When you isolate the fiscal conservatives and libertarians at the expense of the value voters the republicans lose. Timmy plays the middle well and gets that.
@bob – I agree he did not get more that 50% in MN, but he won. He won by being moderate on the social issues and conservative fiscally that is the formula for success.
2:20 pm
“Look at what the party did to Ron Paul, they marginalized him…”
One could make the case that Dr. Paul has marginalized himself with his radical positions, such as eliminating Medicare and Medicaid. WTH?
As for the libertarian vote, do you know the difference between a libertaian and a loser?*
*It’s a trick question. There is no difference.
2:30 pm
I don’t think the Republicans had to do much of anything, inre: Paul. He took a spot on the fringe, and that’s where he’ll be again. It’s not just his ideas. The man has all the warmth of a fistful of quarters.
2:45 pm
The Rat is right, personality does count in Presidential elections — perhaps a little too much.
Bottom line, Pawlenty seems like a longshot, but longshots have won before. Like Truman, for example.
3:22 pm
Ron Paul never had a chance but he has a following and/or a coalition within the Republican party. He is the counter wight to the values crew. Without the libertarian wing of the Republican party all they have is God and that aint enough to win. Ron is a symbole not a canidate. By the way, he is getting some play on his stance on the federal reserve you laugh at him and his kind at your owen peril. I agree is a bit of a nut but he makes some great points.
3:27 pm
The “Libertarian” label is IMHO being applied with a very broad brush. Is there even a cohesive Libertarian movement? Or are supporters just picking and choosing from among some imagined manifesto’s talking points?
Ron Paul doesn’t strike me as believing in the same things as Glenn Beck (who appears to have co-opted the Tea Party movement). Or maybe it’s just that Paul doesn’t use the same incendiary language.
3:27 pm
Most of the great nuts do make good points.
Actually, the GOP has pretty obviously put ALL their eggs in the Obama Backlash Basket. They are counting on at least some of the people who voted for him to turn against him, and turn hard. If they are right, they may do well, even though they have offered little leadership ideas of their own.
If they are wrong…well, it’s going to be a very long 8 years for them.
6:00 pm
@noodle – They have to pick and choose. Once in a while they get a Ross P. or a Jesse, but it is the independent vote.
Ron Paul doesn’t strike me as believing in the same things as Glenn Beck (who appears to have co-opted the Tea Party movement). Or maybe it’s just that Paul doesn’t use the same incendiary language.
Your point is right on. This is the difference in the extremes. The republican party is split. Glenn Beck is an entertainer/evangelist, Ron P. is a absolutist from an economic stand point.
@justbob – The republicans play that card at their own peril.
8:58 pm
A hint of what’s to come with party in-fighting? [via Salon.com]