Secrets of the City

I asked the reporters for the dataset they used to write that story.

I doubt I get it. I wish everytime a news organization published a story that attemps to make a fact-based claim on a dataset that they were somehow obliged to make that dataset available to the public online.

It’s not like technology hasn’t made it so large amounts of data can be made readily available or anything.

I agree. I’m really interested in the methodology.

What types of establishments were included, etc.
How much did the revenue go “up”?

Check out this post on Behing the Mortgage. Don’t miss the comments. “borrowing the powers of government”

Damnit. Hear we go…

hmm i wonder if anything will change through the first winter of the ban. it’s a lot easier to smoke outside when it’s 70 than when it’s -10.

(nonsmoker against the ban)

Well, since you can’t get the data maybe you should try a to do a study of your own. There are prob. some dollars from the gov. for that kind of work. Or suggest it to a local group of schools as a mass economics/science project. Might be interesting.

From my purely anecdotal point of view I don’t see any big disparity in the numbers of folks going to Minneapolis versus Saint Paul b/c of the ban. I think that was one of the things that were expected that people would ditch Minneapolis bars for Saint Paul. Anybody think that’s going on? I don’t get out as much as I used to after all and am not the best person to judge.

(never had a cigarette, love the ban)

Without comment, I offer these three articles as further reading on the subject:

“How many jobs lost to smoking ban?” Brandt Williams, MPR, 11/29/05

“Leveling the playing field,” Jeremy Stratton, Downtown Journal, 12/5/05

“Where there’s no smoke, there’s profit,” unsigned editorial, Saint Paul Pioneer Press, 12/07/2005

The Pioneer Press article conflicts with the coversation I had with the bartender at Kerrigan’s in Nor’d East.

I love that comment — in-depth economic study vs. bartender in nordeast. You decide!

This “debate” brings to the front the classical conumdrum. Confusing Anecdotal Evidence with Statistics. Seems to be rampant in the culture lately. Maybe people aren’t working/drinking/creating hard enough, giving them too much time to think. Most of us are complete morons (author included) with little to no actual access to first hand data on the subjects we discuss. It sure is fun thou isn’t it!

he happened to be a manager or an owner too
“in-depth economic studies” sounds suspicious
just passing on what I heard from a regular guy trying to run a business despite the best efforts of government

not sure how you can ge tmore first hand than to talk to a guy that counts the money, hires and lays off staff and maintains inventory.
“confusing anecdotal evidence”, not sure what you’re talking about.

20 bucks says he smokes too.

And even though I just wrote that, I immediately redact it, cuz I really don’t want to start another smoking shoot-out ’round these parts. So advance apologies for the snarkiness.

not sure why it would matter if he smokes or not? if someone a couple of someones is/are quick to advocate for the pioneer press article then $20 bucks say he’s/they’re anti-smoking
check or money order would be fine

The problem with these shoot-outs is that people are focusing on different things. Most of the ban proponents seem to focus on the apparent lack of harm to restaurants. Most of the ban opponents seem to focus on the apparent harm to corner bars.

As David Thune concedes in that article, “”The smaller, older bars fare the worst, I would suspect. … The little neighborhood bar, we want to make sure that they stay healthy. & We want to talk about how we can put some kind of package together to help them.” To me, this is an admission that the business model for these bars is not presently feasible under a smoking ban.

Perhaps an area for compromise is, as Thune suggests, with some sort of aid to businesses most likely to be harmed by the smoking ban.

See, now that’s just silly. You’re implying that the article was sourced by advocacy groups rather than hard data. You’ve got no reason to make those accusations.

And honestly — I have mixed opinions about the smoking ban. I just hate rhetoric.

you’re the one that brought up the implication that somehow since the bar owner smokes he is against the ban
who’s silly?

The reporters in question from the Pioneer Press responded that they cannot make the data available because of “company policy”.

I have kicked it up the chain another notch. Their rendition of the data seems to be badly massaged and does not match the revenue figures available to me at all.

I fail to see why news organizations deserve to be granted by the grace of the public, protections from prosecution when they are not accountable to the public for what they print.

I further find it to be a very sorry state of affairs when semi-intelligent individuals are convinced by “groovy” representations of nebulous data.

PS: Rex to what in-depth economic study are you referring? The one that 2 reporters say that they have done and yet will not provide? It seems to me that in the absence of sources and data their word is just the word of 2 people and is actually no better than the opinions of a couple of bartenders in northeast.

Guess what? I have cold fusion working on my dining room table. I can’t show you or give you any data about it though. Company policy.

>>”To me, this is an admission that the business model for these bars is not presently feasible under a smoking ban.”

Agree. Businesses will have to adapt to stay profitable. Has anyone found stories or resources out there for corner bar owners to adapt to a smoking ban. Obviously there are thounsands of other cities that have smoking bans .. surely there must be some success stories.

Assuming you decided not to fight the ban and you ran “the corner bar,” what would you do?

i have serious reservations about the intelligence of pioneer press reporters due a actual experience I had. I heard about a riverboat cruise sponsored by a woodbury group that got shut down due to drugs and drinking. to me this seemed like an important story and that getting it in the paper might bring the guilty parties to justice. a few kids ruined it for the whole group. i e-mailed the regional reporter at the pioneer press and they wrote me back with a question. they said after chcking with the woodbury and stillwater police they could find no indication that the incident occurred. let’s analyze, woodbury is landlocked and there are also riverboats in minneapolis and st paul. so to have checked with only the woodbury and stillwater police and then throw your hands up and say “i can’t find anything about the incident” seems to expose stupidity and a lack of attention to detail. after sending an e-mail back to them that they should perhaps check with minneapolis and st paul too because they have riverboats, lo and behold an artile appeared in the paper. never thought i’d have to think for a newspaper reporter. i never got paid either.

I know, it would be a wild theory to postulate that a bar-owning smoker might be biased in their opinions about the smoking ban.

Hey, I totally think the PiPress should reveal their reporting methods. I’m not sure if they have to do it, but I think they should. I guess I’m saying that I trust editors to present reliable information to their readers. There’s no reason why they’d make it up — I mean, the opposite conclusion would’ve been a far better story.

I just don’t believe in sinister cabals — but again, a methodology report would be nice, so good luck…

Ok people lets face facts here. We live in a litigious society. If someone is harmed by the actions of another person, they sue. Thus, if a bartender or a member of the wait staff is a non-smoker and gets lung cancer they are going to sue. They are going to sue their employer, and they will likely sue the city/state for not protecting them like they protect every other worker.

Thus, smoking bans city and state wide are inevitable. You may not like it, but it is a product of our society. It isn’t necessarily the government trying to get into your business. It is the government attempting to have equal protection for ALL of its citizens. If there is a smoking ban in all buildings except bars and restaurants, then that opens the door for these establishment workers to sue the city and the state. The government doesn’t want that. A statewide smoking ban is coming and there isn’t anything any of us can do to stop it. We can only put it off for a while.

The Pioneer Press DID explain their analaysis on page 10A of yesterday’s paper. An I the only blogger in town who still spends a quarter on a daily paper?

We pro-ban types discuss enonomy so much only because the antis keep beating the drum of “economic disaster.” Even today, Craig Westover wrote (in the Pioneer Press!) that more than 2,000 people had lost their jobs because of the Hennepin County ban. Interesting, that’s the same number Sue Jeffers (Stub & Herbs owner) always gives…

Hold on a minute — more than 2,000 jobs (about the same who work at the local Ford plant) gone in Hennepin County alone, and no one noticed except Sue Jeffers and her pal Craig??? Don’t you think this would show up in the state’s jobless claims (which can be sorted by county and industry)? Well, someone checked.

MPR checked out the “more than 2,000 jobs” myth and proved it to be false. Only 18 more people filed for unemployment benefits than the same time period last year — also, the hospitality industry unemployment in “smoking allowed” counties like Anoka were much higher than Hennepin’s. Draw your own conclusions, folks.

We all agree that primary smoking is a leading cause of preventable illness and death in this state, right? Did you also know that workplace smoking bans are one of the few proven methods of helping large numbers of people quit?

We don’t know (yet) how many Minnesotans have quit this year because of the bans (and “fee”), but if we are like other communities that have done the same, it will be a significant percentage.

So it’s about saving lives, not dollars, after all.

the bartender who rex seems to bent on portraying as a “bar-owning smoker (that) might be biased in their opinions about the smoking ban” indicated that people only have to go about 30 blocks north on Central Ave and they’re in Anoka County. He’d be happy if the ban was statewide and everyone was treated equally.

Assuming you decided not to fight the ban and you ran “the corner bar,” what would you do?

I would stop running the corner bar and try to find someone interested in owning a corner coffee shop or neighborhood restaurant.

Upon further reflection, another problematic aspect to the Pioneer Press article is that they focus on the effect of the ban on Psycho Suzi’s, which is a destination for teh cool kids. People are going to go to bars like Psycho Suzi’s, the Red Dragon, etc., regardless whether there is a smoking ban. It would be more interesting to hear from people who own corner bars.

And as others have noted, it’s a bit early to analyze the effect of the smoking ban, when people have been able to comfortably smoke outside since it was instituted. How many bars will be able to keep those patios heated at 20 below zero?

I support and adore the ban, but my immediate reaction to the groovy interactive map is that if you sit about five feet back from the screen, you clearly see more decline (red) and non-change (yellow) of liquor sales in Hennepin and Ramsey counties, and gain (green) in the other counties.

It is not perfectly clear from this what effect the ban has had on this, if any. Ramsey County bars can and do file for exemptions, so what is the problem? Yet it’s interesting that your Wayzatas and Minnetonkas would see a decline while your Burnsvilles and Anokas would see an increase.

As for the longstanding complaints that the Northeast dive bars would lose business to Columbia Heights: Well, those far-Northeast zip codes are indeed in the red, yet Columbia Heights (and Fridley for that matter) have barely changed.

Based on what has happened in New York and other major cities with smoking bans — I would bet the PiPress used ALL restaurant FOOD & Beverage sales to compile their “study”.

Keep in mind all restaurants would include the QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) segment, which is made up of your McDonald’s, Burger King, etc. This segment has been smokefree for years. Plus most don’t serve alcohol. Plus their growth rate is much higher than the FSR (Full Service Restaurant) segment.

To truly see how the smoking ban has impacted the bar & nightclub market… the study should be done — only looking at “Drinking Establishments”.

Bottom line — I’m sure the growth and expansion of the major QSR and FSR chains has offset the losses experienced by independent bar and restaurant owners as a result of the ban. But that’s just my speculation based on the number of Applebee’s and Olive Garden’s that continue to grow and litter the landscape of the Twin Cities.

Complain about the methodology if you will, but at least the PiPress used hard tax data — not anecdotes — to write their front page story. The pro-smoke folks’ media statements kept getting wilder and wilder…Dozens of bars closed, thousands of people out of work, millions in tax dollars lost…it was only a matter of time before someone in the media called them on it.

Hard tax data, sure, but we don’t know how selectively they used it. Until the pro-smoke folks have access to the same hard tax data they have no choice but to use anecdotal evidence. Let’s level the playing field here.

Plus or minus 4% is a pretty small fluctuation to ascribe to, or factor out, any one particular cause.

And sales are not directly translated into profits, which is what the owners, and their banks and creditors look for.

Whach you talkin’ bout, everyone?

Local smoking bans are building blocks to statewide & national smoking bans. All bans are designed to make it harder to smoke (fewer places to go). A ban on smoking in bars is especially effective (no more “cool factor” — “I only smoke when I drink.”)

People who advocate bans know some business owners will suffer. However, theya re single-minded in their crusdae against cigs.

People who are against bans know cigs are bad for you. Bar owners especially know that cigs and all the booze they serve is slowly killing their patrons (the regulars, not casual customers).

There are no saints in this debate.

Yes, bans are driving some small business owners out of business.
Yes, bans make it harder to find a place to light up.
Ban proponents need these local bans to win the state level PR war.

The questions for our elected officials are these:

Are local bans the correct method to foster social change?
Is it the role of government to foster social change?
Do business owners affected by these ordinances deserve compensation or exemption?

Their attitudes & actions on this matter should inform your decision as a voter.

is anyone here a smoker and hasn’t minded the ban all that much?
i’m a bit against the ban for reasons that the gov’t shouldn’t tell businesses what to do, and the fact that i’m a smoker. but i have been doing just fine with the smoking ban.

as long as the rest of the world doesn’t do this, my investments in companies that make cigarettes are just fine

alamn –

Spout all you want about the ban not having an economic impact at the macro level. Sure, it may not be having a huge impact in AGGREGATE — without looking at the more specific bar/drinking establishment segment.

The independent bar/nightclub owner is getting hit hard. That’s a fact. It will get worse in Mpls with subzero temperatures upon us.

If you want to argue that those types of loses are acceptable — given the positive impact on public health… so be it.

Just don’t try to sell B.S. that these business people aren’t getting hurt. And don’t sell the B.S. that their staffs haven’t been reduced — and while the AGGREGATE job data suggests little impact…. it is a FACT that former bartenders and waitstaff are losing jobs and finding new work elsewhere… often for less tip income than they would have made in their old job.

Check out this article on personal freedom and government regs.

http://www.cato.org/testimony/dct-rb061405.html

It may change the way you think. But probably not.

So where are the old smokers in bars going to? Why are they not supporting their local establishments when they need it the most? Seems like these bars that are closing didn’t have a very local customer base in the first place.

Nice article cap’n! Here here! Where’s the ACLU in all of this? Oh yea, they’re out making sure there aren’t any crosses on public land or on the seals for cities, counties or towns. What a worthless waste of time group that is!

Where are all the conservative public-interest legal organizations on this? Oh yea, they’re out making sure there are crosses on public land and on the seals for cities, counties or towns. What a worthless waste of time group they are!

Bob from ALAMN, you aren’t being very honest.

The post from above attributed to “Moe” goes as follows:

So where are the old smokers in bars going to? Why are they not supporting their local establishments when they need it the most? Seems like these bars that are closing didn’t have a very local customer base in the first place.
»» Submitted by »»» moe at 1:45 PM on December 9

Bob, this sounds alot like an arguement YOU have been posting in other blogs.

_____
Don’t you just love it when someone speaks for both sides of an issue?

I’m confused. First you talk about bar owners who “…took their economic future in their own hands,” then you blame ban supporters for the bar’s (claimed) business failures. Why are you mad at us? If I were you, I would be mad at the “loyal customers” who you say left you — for a lousy cigarette. Or the elected officials (who did the right thing, in our opinion) who passed the ordinances.

I know a couple of smokefree joints near other bars that allow smoking that are doing great business, attracting smokers and nonsmokers alike. What’s their secret?

Post the address of your joint and I’ll buy a beer there, bar owner. I have visited many smokefree places since the March 31 ban, including Stub & Herb’s, the grand temple of Minneapolis’ pro-smoke cult.

Ban won’t play in rural MN? Tell it to Meeker County, which passed a ban this summer.

Posted by: Bob from ALAMN at November 3, 2005 08:48 AM

Full Post here.

Bob, you’re just not that tricky.

What?

this the funniest on-line moment i’ve ever witnessed

Touche.

I don’t think I even understand. Is someone accusing Moe of not being real? I’m pretty sure Moe is, um, Moe. (Click your little red arrows for profiles, newbies.)

no someone is accusing moe of being bob from alamn

Right. Well, I’m pretty sure I can vouch for the both of them. I guess I haven’t met Moe, but I have met Bob, and I’m pretty sure he’s not behind East-Lake.net.

This has been another weird day here on MNspeak.

another question.
if people are trying to get everybody to stop smoking, then who is going to flip the taxes for all of the cigarette tax that will no longer come in?
granted this isn’t the situation, but the outcome desired is not just to curb a few people from smoking altogether, but to eliminate it completely from people’s lives. but getting at my original question, who is going to pay the taxes missing? the people who can’t afford to in the first place like usual?

Weird indeed, Rex. This isn’t the first time I have been accused of being someone else using a phoney blog name. I once had to defend myself from being “marcus,” a pro-smoke blogger who posted such laughable material some thought it was me, trying to make the pro-smoke crowd look stupid. Like lame “St. Louis Park” study, or something like that.

Say, did everyone know that Stasiu’s is open again? See the Girl Friday blog. I stopped in to see Jerry and the old crowd. Doing a good business tonight — parking lot was full, bar was smokefree and busy. Looks like the new owners got it together.

somebody really hates bob.

city pages blotter has good smoking ban stuff today.

Bob from the Lung said:

“We all agree that primary smoking is a leading cause of preventable illness and death in this state, right? ………..
We don’t know (yet) how many Minnesotans have quit this year because of the bans (and “fee”), …..”

Which exposes the real agenda of the activists…..get smokers to quit smoking……a noble cause unto itself…..if and only if you get smokers to stop smoking voluntarily.

However, Bob and the non-profits are openly admitting they are unable to do that……so they demand government to do what they cannot.

In order to do that however, they have to exaggerate and lie about the “health hazards” of secondhand smoke…..this new set of data threatens to stop the pro-smoking ban activists in their tracks.

http://cleanairquality.blogspot.com/2005/12/osha-and-environmental-health.html

Thank You Marcus. I just love how MPATT, ACS and ALA know what’s in my best interest. I like to think at 27 years of age I can do that for myself. So I guess I know who to call when I can’t make a decision or I need someone to hold my hand as I cross the street. I could call Dictator Rybak, Wanna Be Dictator Thune, anyone from MPATT, the ACS or ALA.

Just imagine all the possibilities.

Relax, folks. It’s going to be okay, just as it is in all of the other cities, counties and states that have done this already…

Washington (state) went smokefree last week. Washington D.C., going smokefree, too. Looks like Chicago is joining the group as well.

Signing off on this thread…enjoy the weekend, everyone!

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