i’m no economist, but there is some work out there abt the limitations of the inviz hand, that it can only select for efficiency among the choices history has given it: the metaphor is a road built on a curve btw two points. obv it’s the fastest way between them, and rebuilding the road straight isn’t in anyone’s immediate capital interest, so long term inefficency is built in to the short-term best choice. so, voila: the road to energy has a toll both staffed by 30,000 mendacious sanctimonious drunk bedouins…

My main point was that we will NOT have a sudden disappearance of oil. Rather, IF it were to run out, it would a drawn out process and would surely take longer than five years. Over that time the price of oil would slowly inch upwards. The further it inches upwards, the more incentive there is for someone to come up with a cheaper alternative energy source.

But we do have some common ground- I drive a fuel efficient car. It’s because I’m a cheapskate, not an environmentalist, but it has the same effect.

Chonger

P.S. Geoff, I’m no Randian. Also, it’s clear that the Saudis are propped up by governments, which is no failure of the invisible hand.

Add it all up, and you’re paying $22.4K (ownership) + $15K (fuel) + 10K (maintenance) + $8K (insurance/tax) = $55.4K to own this vehicle for 10 years, or $5.5K per year. This is oversimplified, of course, because it doesn’t take into account (a) time value of money (except for pmt @ 7%), (b) accidents, (c) rising costs of fuel and insurance, or (d) salvage value at year 11.

But you get the drift. Your $20K car costs you about $7.5K your first year of ownership, and over $55K for 10 years of ownership. At the end of 10, you maybe could get $1.5K for it, if you’ve treated it well with no accidents. What a deal.

personal transportation is the last stop for energy consumption; we have to recompute those costs into everything else: anything that gets trucked, anything that gets flown (flown?? er flied? you know), all farming (incl the machines and the fertilizers), anything with a plastic part or carried in one. energy costs are a drag on every element of the economy, not just folks driving around.

no other source of energy is as efficent or productive as petroluem. there are, frankly, NO alternatives, nothing works as well. it won’t just “run out” one day, it’s becoming increasingly (and at some point, prohibitavely) expensive to get out of the ground–and no other source can really pick up the slack. it’s not just a matter of switching but of living & working with less energy, period.

in the meantime, the bottom piece of the whole economic jenga game is the saudi royal family. the invisible hand hasn’t fixed them yet.

(oh and i drive a big olds my late grandma gave me. everywhere.)

The fact is that the chicken littles are consistently wrong about their predictions of long term supply shortage. Perhaps you have heard of the famous bet between Paul Erlich and Julian Simon? Unless you think oil resources will dry up in the space of a year, or even five years, there is plenty of time for the market to respond to the need for alternatives.

Have some faith!

Chonger

The smart has more room in the front than the Odyssey but you got to be a people person. Every time you stop people want to talk about it.

Took the smart on a 800 mile trip last week. It was great.