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On the Ball
The Three-Pointer: Margins of Error
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Game #43, Road Game #22: Milwaukee 83, Minnesota 90
Game #44, Home Game #22: Minnesota 89, Detroit 98
Season Record: 16-28
1. Fine Tooth Insight
Monday night's Wolves win over the Milwaukee Bucks was the most brain-numbing game of the McHale coaching era, and perhaps the entire season to-date. Sans their sharpshooter Michael Redd and their 7-foot grinder, Andrew Bogut, the Bucks had bupkiss. Minnesota rode a typically staunch low-post display from Al Jefferson and an atypically noisy shooting show from blend-in barometer Ryan Gomes to triumph, albeit not without letting Milwaukee back in the game courtesy of a dinged up Charlie Bell, spurned Spur Francisco Elson, and cool hand Luke Ridenour. It was awful.
By contrast, tonight's Wolves loss to Detroit at Target Center was highly entertaining, full of interesting matchups, careening moods and momentums, close competition, and a fairly high-caliber effort and execution from both teams.
Or so I thought. In his postgame press conference, McHale was as disappointed in his club's effort and execution as I've seen him this season. Mixing stats with observations, he gave a glimpse into how thoroughly those who patrol the sidelines sweat the details and priorities they want established. "Four fast break points. We got to the line 16 times," he began, and offering a couple cliches and pro-forma praise to the Pistons, continued, "the whole game long we seemed stuck in the mud. We never got out running..." and steadily got more specific. "We had no entry screens, no movement with purpose," he lamented. "We weren't making hard cuts. We settled a lot. We'd make a halfway decent entry pass that pulled the guy off the block a little...We never got the pace where we needed to be; it was like we couldn't get out of second gear.
"I don't mind the physical mistakes but not the mental mistakes--you've got to know where you are going," he said. "We must have had six 'and 1's' tonight, where we just grabbed their arm," a situation that occurs, he added, "when guys on the weak side [of the defense] don't move." Then he matter-of-factly foreclosed the solution: "We have a short practice tomorrow but we'll put some intensity in it."
To the extent McHale is playing mind games, I think he doesn't want his team thinking they aren't any good with games against last year's NBA finalists, the Lakers and Celts, next on the horizon. If they lost to Detroit due to their own lack of execution, well, that can be remedied and perhaps they have a shot in the next pair of games. If they played well and still lost to a stumbling, inconsistent, but still more talented and slightly better team, well, they have no shot with Kobe on Friday and at Boston vs. KG on Sunday.
Again, for what it's worth, I thought Minnesota played relatively well--or at least much better than Monday's eye-closer. Here's my autopsy of why the Wolves went down.
* Hobbled by his bruised thigh, Bassy Telfair couldn't stay with Allen Iverson and found himself in foul trouble.
Telfair logged a mere 20:17, just 5:25 of it in the second half, when he committed three of his five fouls and the Wolves were held to 37 points. "I appreciated his effort," McHale said after the game, emphasizing the injury. "His inability to use his speed, his inability to turn the corner, hurt us." Indeed, in many respects, Telfair has been the unsung hero of this recent surge, but had cooled off with a 3-13 FG, 6-turnover game in Milwaukee Monday. Tonight he bounced back to go 4-6 FGand put up 3 assists versus one miscue, but his limited mobility compelled him to foul Iverson (who got to the line a game-high 10 times), and prevented him from forcing the issue with penetration or his patented snap passes at the other end.
* Rasheed Wallace outplayed Al Jefferson at both ends of the court down the stretch.
There is no shame in this. 'Sheed has the entire package to make him a top-10 NBA talent--everything but the focus and commitment required for consistency. That flaw has been aggravated this season with the trading of Billups and the step back taken by the Pistons franchise--'Sheed has frequently not been as much engaged as he was during Detroit's stretch of deep playoff runs. But one out of every four or five games, he'll click in and overwhelm his matchup--even Big Al. For his part, Jefferson initially looked to be up to the challenge--one of the reasons this was such an entertaining game. He even showcased a new move in the low left block--a variation on his signature hard-angle step and up-and-under banker, except that he does almost a 360 with his inside shoulder and squares up to the rim much straighter at the finish. He flabbergasted 'Sheed, who'd obviously done his filmwork, the first time he tried it, and made it work a second time in the second half.
At the end of three periods, Jefferson had 22 points (10-17 FG, 2-4 FT) and 5 rebounds, while "Sheed had 15 points (6-11 FG, 1-3 3ptFG, 2-2 FT) and 7 rebounds. Wallace also had 4 steals by then, filching entry passes and anticipating some passing lanes, but the Wolves were still up a point, 72-71, heading into the final 12 minutes. They pushed it to 5, 84-79, with 5:53 to go, and then the game swung. Jefferson was scoreless, 0-5 FG, with most of the misses coming in the paint against 'Sheed's single coverage. Wallace had 7 points bunched into a 37 second spurt in the final two minutes that included a pair of perimeter jumpers right over Jefferson, turning a three point Piston lead with 1:48 to play into a 7 point margin at 1:11.
Score one for the old guys: 'Sheed, age 34, Antonio McDyess, who is ten days older than 'Sheed, and Iverson, the young'un of the trio at 33, combined for 25 of the Pistons' 27 4th quarter points.
2. Waiting for Ollie; Getting Tired of Waiting for Miller
It was odd to see the Wolves suddenly have a problem with their backcourt tonight. Throughout this boomlet of success, the inside-outside template has been working extremely well, with Jefferson magnetizing defenders so that Love can own the weakside glass for an indefinite number of second-chances, and freeing up the long range gunners. Telfair has been solid with the rock, Foye a burgeoning star, and Rodney Carney a three-point homerun hitter extraordinaire.
But with Telfair waylaid by bruises and whistles, and 'Sheed effectively battling Big Al all by his lonesome in the low hole, the Pistons could aggressively defend the perimeter with more bodies than the Wolves are accustomed to seeing out there, creating greater need for a ballhandler for most of Bassy's absence. Truth be told, neither the Wolves nor (as much as he would deny it) Randy Foye want to see Foye responsible for the set-ups and dribbling that go with play at the point, and Rodney Carney certainly doesn't have the handle to assist Foye against the rapacious likes of Iverson and Rodney Stuckey. But Mike Miller does. And so, with Kevin Ollie still recuperating from a bum elbow and thus not able to spell Bassy in the backcourt, Miller logged 20:20 of the 24 second-half minutes for Minnesota. Carney was thus reduced to 12:25, and the Wolves missed his outside marksmanship, making only 2 of 12 from behind the arc, after averaging more than 20 trey attempts per game--and making 38.7% of them--during their 12-4 surge.
For the past six weeks or so, Miller has increasingly been performing like a pass-first point guard, albeit one 6-8, with very slow feet, and a former killer instinct with his jump shot that has, like all muscles and skills that are rarely if ever exercised, atrophied beyond recognition. True to form tonight, he was a lead-footed dervish, slowly but surely taking his man off the dribble and dishing it down low to the big men or out to the wing with his now-patented, jump-and-twist overhead heave. Make no mistake: Miller is an excellent passer. He had a team-tying best 5 assists tonight and should have had at a couple more if teammates had simply dropped the dimes he laid in rhythm on their doorsteps. But Miller has also become the most predictible guy to scout on the Timberwolves roster. He will catch the ball out on the perimeter, and, if he is behind the three point line with absolutely nobody around him and the shot clock winding down, there is a decent possibility that he'll hoist up a three pointer--and a pretty decent possibility that it will clank. In almost any other circumstance, he'll start dribbling . Most of the time, he will short-circuit the move relatively quickly with that twist-pass. Otherwise he'll take it hard to the rim and either dish at the last moment or go for the layup.
Mike Miller will not shoot the ball anywhere between the three-point arc and the deepest part of the paint, and on the rare occasion when he does, you do not have to worry about it going in. How do we know this? The Timberwolves have now played 13 games in the month of January. During that time, Miller has converted 25 baskets--less than 2 per game. Six of those baskets have been three pointers. Eighteen of them have been layups. Exactly one time in the month of January--in the 4th quarter of the game in Phoenix on January 16th, to be exact--he sank a shot that was neither a trey nor a layup. Time after time after time, he turns down shots that his height, his history and the fundaments of half-court basketball dictate he should attempt. Now, part of that is because he is converting less than 40% of his shots in January, and less than 20% of his treys. But if teams don't start daring him to shoot, the scouts are not doing their jobs. And if Miller, who has compiled a very nice 45/20 assist-to-turnover ratio in this period, and corralled a bushel of rebounds, doesn't start trying to find what was one of the premiere shooting strokes in the NBA, then he's not doing his job.
3. Quick Hits
Craig Smith finally found an advantageous matchup in Detroit's Amir Johnson and was his team's best plus +6 while Johnson was his team's worst minus -9.
Don't know what Ryan Gomes is shooting when he's moving toward the hoop on his jumper, usually after a deke or upfake, but it is probably very high. The return of his stealth points was the best thing about the Milwaukee win and tonight he flashed that hot shooting again with 8 points (on three buckets moving to the basket), in the third period.
Iverson was just terrible, a ball-hogging flow-killer who'd lost his touch, air-balling layups layering ridiculous shot selection on top of lousy aim, while going 3-10 FG with 1 assist in the first half. In the second half, he was near-vintage AI, with 11 points and two dimes on 2-5 FG and 7-8 FT.
Randy Foye has begun to play defense at times other than the 4th quarter. Twice tonight in the first period, Foye hustled back to contest transition hoops, creating a missed shot the first time while blocking the second, only to have the other man execute the putback each time.
We've all heard of the rookie wall--what about the rookie launching pad? Kevin Love has been a revelation the past 3 weeks or so. His monster ingestion of all things rebound continued, with 10 in a mere 25:49 tonight (and two or three others where he was in perfect position but the long bounce off the missed trey just cleared his outstretched fingers), please an offensive game that has become surprisingly formidable. Love posted up Jason Maxiell and dumped in a baby shot over the bruiser's leaping block attempt. Then he came down a possession or two later and swished a textbook-pretty jump hook. For style points, the winner was his behind-the-back dribble down the left lane, leading to a layup that barely rolled out. Love had 11 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists in the second period alone, and finished with 17-10-4. Asked by a reporter about not being chosen for the Rookie All Stars, he issued a two-word response: "That's bullshit."
Yes, yes it is.
41 Reader Comments
Come on. Is it really bullshit that Love isn't going to the Rookie game. This is a very strong crop. I don't see any guys on that roster that definitely shouldn't be there.
Let's be honest, Love has only been playing well for the last month. Had the season started in January, he'd be a lock. But, I can't fault the selection committee for considering the entire season.
Keep it up Love, you'll be All-Rookie, and this will be quickly forgotten.
Two comments involving Kevin Love:
1) There's no excuse for sitting him entire periods at a time. He didn't get off the bench in the 1st Quarter, and he didn't come in for Rhino until after the 2:00 mark in the 3rd Quarter. I guess if I were coaching and Love had to come off the bench, I'd at least start him in the 2nd Half, so he could get two full stints out there in that half. I don't know (or care) what the +/- was when he was in or out, last night--Detroit had a big size advantage over us even when it was Love-Jefferson. When it's Love-Cardinal or Jefferson-Gomes/Rhino, it was ridiculous. Oh yeah, and it's becoming pretty clear that Love's one of our best players--he should get that type of minutes.
2) I hate smallball. This recent success ALMOST had me on board with the idea, but a quality opponent with size and skill down low showed me again why I opposed the idea so much when it was being sold to us before and after the draft. I don't have TiVo and I didn't bring a notebook to the game, so I don't know the total count, but we lost a whole lot of rebounds due to sheer lack of height. A couple that I remember involved Gomes and Love being outjumped by McDyess--one of them off a missed FT that led to a three. Sheed climbed Love's back for a 4th Quarter offensive board and somehow the ref said Love fouled him. Granted, that was bogus but it had happened so many times (not always to Love) that it was painfully obvious how different our front line looks against a contender. LAL will be even bigger, although probably not quite as good as Detroit's big boys. I will say, though, that it was fun to watch Sheed, in person. I'd never seen him live, before, and like Britt mentions, he's a Top-10 talent when he puts it together.
Well AndyG, they'd be even smaller ballers if they had Mayo instead of Love.
I would trade all three of this year's draft choices plus Pekovic's rights and our expirings for a rotational big that defends and a starting guard with a complete game that complements Foye's game. Fill in the roster with 2nd rounders.
Dunno--
I've watched Marc Gasol play four or five times this season, plus a lot more in last summer's Olympics. If you seriously think Gasol is better than Kevin Love, I told know what to tell you.
Defense? Love is superior.
Passing? Love is superior.
Rebounding? It isn't even a conversation.
Scoring? Well, here and here only, your comment about Love being a slow starter has weight.
I'm not apologist for the local squad. But choosing Marc Gasol of the 11-win Grizzlies, who already have a ROY candidate and a guy who was in the conversation for ROY two years before that, choosing him over Kevin Love is, as he so eloquently put it, bullshit.
I thought this game showed us exactly what we need to find for next year - a long athletic 2 who can be a sniper and a legit 7' defensive post.
I agree - I think Telfair's contribution during this run has not received its due attention. It was clear he was not himself last night and it showed up in the team's play. I still believe that Foye works well at the point for those 10-12 minutes of rest - but not for the nearly 30 he logged last night. I thought running the point and playing the strong defense (as Britt's so properly points out), left 4th quarter Foye's tank empty at the end of the game when we desperately needed a couple of outside shots.
I agree with Andy G, we were a little small for Detroit's front line. I think the bigger problem I noticed last night was how many long rebounds Detroit's guard got by frankly out hustling our guards.
Even with all of this, I was very entertained last night and am really looking forward to Friday night.
I think the most disappointing thing about Love not making the team is that the Clippers, Griz, and Blazers all have 2 guys in the game. The Clips and Griz are inferior teams to the Wolves. Their rookies and 2nd year players are inferior to Love. The Wolves have a combined 11 wins more than those two teams. Later on today, I'm sure we'll hear lots of garbage about how Big Al didn't make the All Star team because winning matters.
Love is the league's best offensive rebounder. He is probably one of the top 3 overall rebounders in the league. He has adjusted to the pace and style of play better than any other rookie in the league outside of Westbrook (how about that UCLA squad?). I get that this is just a rookie/sophomore game, but Love has more of a claim to be on this team than Big Al does in the main event. Love is straight up better than Beasley or Gasol. He's right on par with Lopez and Oden.
Andy G:
The Wolves didn't lose last night's game because of small ball. They lost because of sloppy play, not getting to the line, and being unable to push the tempo. Their pace factor was 85 last night and they were outgunned at the free throw line and out offensive rebounded. It was as close to a Wittman-esque effort as we've seen in a while and it was pretty much the opposite of what small ball has been with this club. This team operates at around a 93-95 pace factor with a 110 OE. They have been collecting over 30% of their misses (with a small roster) while being free throw neutral. Last night, the Wolves settled for shots they haven't been taking during the course of the streak:
http://scores.espn.go.com/nba/shotchart?gameId=290128016
They failed to make the extra pass and they did a piss-poor job of setting up shots.
The height on the court for the Wolves didn't change last night from what they have been doing in recent weeks. Nor did it play into the way they poorly executed their offense. It was a fugly game where the Wolves relied on Miller and Foye at the lead guard in the 2nd 1/2 and in which they played about 10 possessions slower than one of their normal contests. They were out of position on both ends of the court and it was all-around ugly. I think you chalk this one up to effort and lack of concentration more than anything else.
I do think that last night's game highlighted the importance of using the 1st pick in the draft on a guard who can split time with Bassy. This team needs point guard help in a bad way.
Britt,
Your looking at this from a current, point in time, perspective. I agree with everything you are saying, but would you have stood by these comments in Nov-Dec.?
I can see people believing that Gasol has had a more consistently solid output over the course of the season. He's also a starter and can play the 4 or 5, which gives the roster a little more balance.
Is Love the better player? Yes. If he were picked over Gasol, I don't think Gasol would have a legit claim of "bullshit" either.
That's all I am saying.
The more losses the better. Maybe it will bring them back into reality and a trade will get done. I'd swap Miller for an injured Gerald Wallace even if Gerald has to sit out the remainder of the season. Had the ice fish moved on the Nets/Bulls trade talk, they probably could have had a 3-team swap for Noah.
NOA-
I don't rethink the trade in a vaccum. I have to believe that, had we kept Mayo, we would've made a move to pick up a big man. It's not a stretch to think we would've traded Shaddy McCants, back when he had some value. And even with the trade, we still could've (and hopefully will in the near future) added a longer, more athletic big man to fill out the rotation. It's not a good situation when you're throwing out front lines of 6'8"/6'7" and 6'9"/6'6". Sheed & McDyess showed us that.
JAF-
The long rebounds piled up in the 4th Quarter--especially one sequence where they got a few in a row. I noticed the high ones going Detroit's way throughout the game.
And I totally agree about Bassy. I didn't realize he was injured, so I was pretty upset watching the offense fall apart down the stretch when it was obvious that we needed him out there. It really is amazing how different the team looks with him running the show, versus whoever else.
I must preface by stating that I was unable to watch the game, but did follow the audio and the ESPN Gamecast.
Looking only at the stats it seems that the Wolves had a relatively careful game, with just 11 turnovers. The problem wasn't the number of sloppy plays, but the timing of them. There were (from what I recall) a few egregious turnovers in the fourth quarter that a veteran team like the Pistons easily capitalized on. Without the extra possessions it could easily have been the Wolves game.
Is this just the difference between a young squad that is currently playing above expectations and a vet, somewhat more talented, Pistons team?
Yup. If last night's game doesn't clearly indicate Bassy's impact on the game, when he's aggressive, than nothing will. Wittman had him reduced to a perimeter player. Since McHale took over, Bassy's gotten a lot more picks and opportunities to attack, create angles and set up teammates more effectively.
Even though his jumper was falling last night, he was--through no fault of his own--reduced to the slow-things-down perimeter PG he was under the last coach and under Doc Rivers. And the team didn't get as many quality looks.
Foye can make a nice pass now and again and pile up assists, but that does not make him a PG. Running the team is not his thing.
While I wish Miller would take a few more jumpers, I think he's a net plus out there. He almost always makes a good pass (except when he kicks out to Cardinal!) and crashes the boards. But if he's going to wait until he has nobody within 6 feet of him to shoot the rock, than he needs to make those shots. he has a quick enough release and is long enough that he can get a decent shot off when he's being guarded.
I disagree that team's should leave him alone. He's been too good over the course of his career to merit the Bassy treatment.
Dunno- I absolutely agree with you. If K Love wanted to be on the Rookie team he probably should've upped his learning curve over the summer so that it didn't take him until the end of December to become a legit contributor. While right now I look at the Rookie list there are only three or four guys I'd take over him, if you'de have asked me in late November I'd have taken them all.
Frankly, I'm much more concerned with the minutes Kevin's getting in our own sad uniforms on our own laughably two-tone hardwood. How can anyone be getting worked up by K Love not playing because of Marc Gasol when they watch him cool his heels on the bench nightly in favor of Craig Smith. Is there anyone out there who wouldn't run comically through a pane of glass in order to trade Craig for Marc?
To the appropriately named Flingerofpoo--
Why divide up the stats into before and after late December? Why not just look at the composite numbers and what each player has done for his respective team?
In 30.4 minutes per game thus far this year, Gasol is averaging 11 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.6 assists. According to 82games.com, the Grizzlies are -.7.8 points per 48 minutes when he is on the floor, and -4.4 pp48 when he is on the bench.
In 23.1 minutes per game, Love is averaging 9 points, 8.4 rebounds and 1.2 assists. The Wolves are -2.0 pp48 when he is on the floor and -4.3 when he is on the bench.
I've written about my distaste for Smith getting so many minutes at the expense of Love, but if not Smith, then it has to be Collins or Madsen or even smaller ball with Gomes or Cardinal. Yes, I think Love should be bumped up to 35 minutes per night. If he had been, you wouldn't even have that flimsy leg you are standing on to make the claim that Gasol should be in the rookie game over Love.
Finally, the gap between Smith and Gasol is not as great as you apparently imagine. Did you see Gasol "defending" Jefferson when the Grizz came to Target Center? The guy's a water buffalo--not that much more valuable than a Rhino.
Britt -
Your love for K-Love is admirable. The conversation always starts out, "well, he's not that athletic," or "maybe in a few years he'll be good."
The future is now. After a funky first month or so in the league, the kid is rocking.
As for the rotation. Playing K-Love 23 mpg as a rookie makes sense. Last night versus the Thunder, Mayo put in 46 minutes. That is crazy. No wonder he was only 4 for 15 and his 3's are clanking.
I've said I won't buy a Wolves ticket until they have a 50/50 shot at a win on any given night. It is starting to get closer.
Britt:
I agree that if Love had been getting the minutes he's earned I would have no leg to stand on, flimsy or otherwise. Sadly, that hasn't happened of yet, hopefully soon.
The point (which I apparently did a poor job of making) of how poorly Love performed in the earlier parts of this season is actually more a point of exposure to those voting on this honour. For half the season to this point, when one was game planning for the Wolves, and soon thereafter competing against the Wolves, Kevin Love was a non-entity. Presumably this formed opinions in the heads of said assistant coaches, that being that K Love was less than. Clearly, that opinion if false, and the statistics bear this out- but moreover what we see everyday makes that abundantly clear. But I strongly doubt that these coaches are going to the tape to watch Love play unless they're about to match up with him, just as I doubt when given the chance to make their votes they all immediately went to 82 games.com to make their tough choices. What many of these coaches likely remember from the games they played against the Wolves is that K Love was an unathletic tweener who couldn't convert a layup and who beat himself up over every miscue. Meanwhile Marc played their team and was game planned for, performed at his nightly mediocre level, and had a toughness and passing ability these coaches admired.
Look, I've got mad man-love for Love (it's creepy really), and would never suggest Marc Gasol was a better player than him (I wouldn't take his big brother at this point), but Love's problem wasn't statistical, it was the amount of times he wasn't even on coaches' radars.
On a sidenote: I really appreciate this forum and your analysis.
I agree that picking Marc Gasol over K-Love was a travesty. But what about picking Greg Oden over K-Love? I know that Oden is a bigger name than Love, so that's probably why the choice was made. But I'm simply looking at the stats.
Oden and Love both average around 23 minutes per game and both average 9 ppg. Love outrebounds Oden by about a rebound per game, while the only advantage Oden has over Love is about half a blocked shot per game.
Seems pretty even to me, and since the Blazers already have Rudy F. going to the game (and the Slam Dunk Contest), it would seem to me that picking Love would be the fair move.
Love is definitely playing better, but I wonder if that is due to his limited minutes, not in spite of them. If he was asked to be a starter and play regular rotation minutes of 32+ minutes a game I suspect his efficiency would go down... perhaps significantly. The "water buffalo" really looked terrible to me the one time I saw him play - but to his credit he's able to play 30 minutes a game, shoot over 50% and pull down 7 rebounds a game. He's not significantly better than Love, but he is able to put up better raw numbers than Love in almost every statistical category (Love gets 1 more rebound a game, is slightly better at the line). Until Love shows that he can play against starters and for more than 23 minutes a game, I don't think I'd call it bullshit to pick Gasol over him - maybe wrong, but not bullshit. That said, let's hope Love continues to improve - he's certainly better now then when the season started.
I'm also impressed with Kevin Love, though it's *so* painful to watch him miss those short little gimme-buckets sometimes. His confidence is improved - he doesn't have that hesitation when shooting from outside the paint.
I'll agree with GabeZ though - Detroit has veterans, and the Wolves are a young squad. We've all seen Rasheed play before - he's going to knock down big shots AND handle the Wolves most potent weapon. When was the last time you remember Al not seeing a doubleteam on every possession?
As for Mike Miller, we all know he needs to shoot more, or at least find his rhythm. But let's not ignore the fact that he brings the ball up (when playing with Randy), rebounds well for his position, and finds open players. His dribble-drives are also a sign of aggression. When most players get into a funk, it's because they're *not* doing things Miller is doing now. Sure, he may be easy to scout, but if he keeps driving, he's going to meet a lazy defender who rotates a step too slow and he can shoot. Of course, since he plays with Carney (where all the defender must do is stay at home), he's usually going to get the better defender.
Anto,
It is not that Miller does not contribute with others skills. It's that Miller needed to be our stretch the defense shooter and, unfortunately for whatever mental/physical/emotional reasons, he is not. It leaves a gaping deficiency in the collective skill set on this team. Only Foye has the ability to consistently make the jumper. Gomes and Carney can make the shot but are wildly inconsistent - you never know if it is going to be one of their 4-5 nights or a 1-7 night.
Without a couple of consistent shooters, we are going to have problems competing against the upper level teams. That is why I am so strong on a taller, sharp shooting 2 as the biggest priority for the Twolves this off season.
Flinger--
I get it the second time around.
caerochren--Nope. Love gets 1.3 more rebounds per game in 7.3 less minutes, so that side of the argument is settled--even if Love were exhausted, he isn't going to get *fewer* rebounds with more time. Do you think he can put up 2 more points in those extra 7.3 minutes? If so, that's a wash. Do you think he can register .4 assists in those extra 7.3 minutes--meaning one thin dime for every extra 18 minutes he's on the court? If so, then assists are a wash.
Now let's say in doing this, his game falls apart to the point where instead of the Wolves being only -2.0 pp48 when he is on the court, they collapse to -7.8 pp48 due to the extra 7.3 minutes per 48 he is on the court. That is a huge exhaustion factor. And if it happens, then Love and Gasol will again be a wash.
Tim Allen--Greg Oden is a staunch low post defender who helps an already good Blazers team get better. Portland is +3.9 pp48 when he is on the floor, versus +2.4 when he is off the floor. You could say Love has a bigger "impact" in that regard, but it requires more ability to make a good team better than to make a bad team better. Even with his injury history, I would trade Love for Oden in a New York minute.
Actually, I do think he could start getting fewer rebounds if he consistently played more minutes. Because his minutes are so short, he is much fresher every game, his body is not breaking down as much. If he put in big minutes every night his effectiveness could go down, which take away some of those rebounds, make his shooting percentage worse, etc. This is the point Captain America made in passing about Mayo, who's been forced to be the best player on his team every night. As the season wears on he is not as effective - partly due to scouting, but also due to fatigue. Admittedly this is sheer speculation, Love's numbers might be better if he played more minutes. Given his conditioning and style of play, I don't think we can expect that to be true though.
I'm a Pistons fan, but regularly read this site for the great analysis/commentary, and was looking forward to this game just to read the post-game breakdown here.
From an outsider perspective, I've gotta say Kevin Love was impressive. He's got a pretty rare combination for someone his size of high basketball skill/IQ and consistent, big-time effort. He was a horrible match-up for all of our bigs, other than McDyess (who is tall/strong enough to match-up and plays equally hard consistently, unlike 'Sheed).
Foye, even though it seems like this game wasn't what you guys have recently come to expect from him, I still thought looked good as well. Iverson was just totally overmatched trying to guard him.
I've been reading here about Mike Miller's strange season for a while, but was still taken aback seeing it for myself. This probably isn't a very original suggestion, but I wonder if when Telfair is out of the game, if Miller could just be officially designated the "point-forward" and keep Foye in his off-ball/guard mind frame.
The truth is the Wolves just got unlucky. There's no real pattern to 'Sheed's good games anymore, and they're increasingly infrequent (I'd say definitely less frequent than 1 in 4 or 5 games at this point). If he has one of his average games at the level he's played at this season, the Wolves win pretty easily.
I attended the game last night and was disappointed with Al's defense and attitude at the defensive end. We're all used to Al bitching when he doesn't get the rock, but tonight he chewed out Kevin Love for helping on Sheed with about a minute left in the game. Love fouled Sheed on the play, sending him to the line, so it wasn't a great play by Love but the idea of Al yelling at someone else about defense is absurd. Especially when it was about someone coming to help him on Sheed, who was torching him in the 4th. That's just not being a good teammate, and if Al thinks he doesn't need help guarding Sheed, he should have a long look at the game tape today.
I think that one can make a "forest and trees" argument for KLove not getting placed on the rookie team. In the last few games I sense an edge in the guy that wasn't there early on. With the exception of Big Al, the Twolves are a little bit too "nice" as a team. I don't mean glaring, glowering, tongue wagging idiot faces after dunks; I mean being willing to mix it up and back it up during the action on the floor. When the season started, Love rebounded "small and desperate." Now he is rebounding "mean and angry." The "we don't get no respect" game is as old as the game itself. But now, in Love's case, it is true. I expect to see a pissed off "I'll show you bastards" player now that the assistant coaches have given him the finger during the all-star selection process. If he can put that edge into his offensive game as well, he will be something to watch. I'll tell you, I'm eating a lot of crow right now.
Hollinger reacts to Love's exclusion over at ESPN:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&pag...
Love should be in there over Gasol. Anybody who has watched either player in the last 15 games can tell which belongs in All-Star Weekend, and which is a role-playing stiff.
Eric Gordon should be there, with Love--not instead of him. EG is putting together a really solid rookie year. If Hollinger's calculator tells him otherwise, he should throw it away.
Andy G:
Eric Gordon's inclusion is the biggest slap in Love's face. Not only has Gordon come on later than Love (and he has indeed come on) but he's done it for a worse team and with worse efficiency. Every excuse that was probably used to not vote for Love by the assistant coaches can be used and then some on Gordon.
The fact that there are two Clippers in this game (along with 2 members of the Griz) is stupid.
Where are the young Wizards? At least we figured out one thing: the assistant coaches in the NBA don't actually watch or pay attention to the NBA.
BTW: The sophomores are going to get run...with or without Love.
Britt,
I echo the sentiments of Just A Fan comments above. This game really highlighted the wolves personnel weaknesses. Al did his best against Sheed, I thought he played with energy at the defensive end, but Sheed is simply too long and versatile for Al. McDyess also caused the wolves problems with his length, getting several key offensive rebounds with both Love and Jefferson in the game. The wolves need to add a long atheletic defensive presence to their front-court rotation with Al and Love. Also, Craig Smith should be used more like the Microwave back on those great Piston teams... The next couple of games could get ugly because of the size of the laker and celtic frontcourts. The wolves may have no choice but to summon one of their journeyman centers off the pine.
Obviously you've talked about the frontcourt length issue several times before, but last night I thought was the perfect example of how to exploit this "small ball" team.
One last comment: I think it is great Love didn't make it on the rookie squad and that he's pissed off about it. This snub may really fuel his desire to start on this team and become a double-double machine!
Think of it this way, if you're coaching the rookie team (and presumably want to win) and you're forced to choose between Eric Gordon and Marc Gasol, who are you picking? It's a complete no-brainer that you pick Gordon. He's already a bigtime scorer and solid defender.
Think of it another way, if you're a fan deciding whether or not to watch the Rookie-Sophomore Game, which player's inclusion will make you want to watch it more: Gordon or Gasol? Again--a no-brainer for Gordon.
The same can be said for Love vs Gasol. Love would help them win and be more fun to watch while doing it. He and Gordon both should be on the team.
Oden should be with the class he was drafted with (Durant et al), which would immediately open the slot for Love.
Andy G:
The sad thing here is that the assistant coaches voted for this thing and I doubt that even a minimal amount of thought went into it. Beasley is another guy that shouldn't be there in place of Love.
If I could pick starting rookie 5s, I go with Westbrook, Rose, Fernandez, Love, and Lopez. I'd bring Gordon and Mayo off the bench with Oden and Speights rounding things out.
Moving on...who's got some Mike Miller trade scenarios in mind?
Wallace for Miller would be awesome-squared. But I don't see what the Bobcats pick up in that deal- a few less years on the contract(yes, I am too lazy to look it up)?
For whatever it's worth Chad Ford assigns a 65% probability to Miller being dealt.
While were at it, why did anyone think Miller was going to step in and become a cornerstone? Don't you think it is telling that he's already on his third team?
Most of what I'd say has been said already. If Wallace doesn't get interested late (and Jefferson doesn't go cold - he had some shots rim out), it goes down to the buzzer. It was disappointing to see them let the Pistons control the tempo of the game, but the Pistons deserve credit for getting back on defense and getting the long offensive rebounds in the 4th quarter. To me, this game would've been a perfect time to try McCants as the lead guard; they had Telfair in case he crapped the bed, and he might take the challenge against a veteran team and lift his game.
I was disappointed by the rookie game roster, too. Without a doubt, the coaches are looking at standard stats and who's playing the most, not who's the most productive. Gordon, Gasol, and Fernandez were the biggest question marks. I thought Mario Chalmers should've been in over Gordon and a pick 'em between Gasol and Fernandez for the other spot. Something tells me Gordon's minutes and scoring numbers would be drastically different if Baron Davis, Camby, Kaman, and Randolph weren't missing time with injuries.
Dunno:
My take is that Miller becomes much more valuable a. after he starts performing again (although his track record is decent, so that's probably less of a thing than with some) and b. at next years trade deadline, when Miami and NY, among others, make desperate moves in order to make certain they control their free agency fates. The only thing I'd be thrilled with trading for him now would be an extremely young budding star (a Monte Ellis package perhaps) or a contract that's up at the end of this year and some picks. This year is the Timberwolves honeypot, the big boys will have 2010 locked down.
Honestly, I'd sit him (although I'd juxtapose his and Rodney Carney's minutes for at least the foreseeable future).
By sit him I meant sit on him, as in hold on to him- but what I really meant was that if I'm to start drinking early, I should also quit typing early.
I was looking at the rookie/sophomore rosters last night, and two things stood out to me. First, it seemed like the NBA selected these teams about a month ago. Second, they just had to have international flair. Gasol and Rudy Fernandez shouldn't be there; Love and Jason Thompson of Sacramento should. Actually, the whole construction of the roster is strange, given that Beasley is the only one who's a "true" forward.
But yeah, Kevin called BS, and he's right.
Mssr Dunno -- despite Britt's documented displeasure with Mike Miller, I'm hoping that Miller will come around and that the Wolves will keep (and build *with*) him. He's got far more basketball sense than a lot of past and present Timberwolves. If (when?) he resumes taking his shots and they are falling, he can be a matchup issue (no, I won't use the "nightmare" cliche), that can at least keep the defense spread.
If you dredge up some real imagination, you could try to find someone to take McCants.
From the Wolve website...
All I can say is "What a fan! You go, Ohno!"
-- Mitsuaki Ohno is a special Timberwolves fan who lives in Japan but buys season tickets each year. He attends one game a year and gives the rest away to different charities. He was at tonight's game, and gave some special analysis of how the Wolves are playing so far this season.
"It's a development season, so it's not about winning a game, it's about improving plays and communication with teammates to improve the level of basketball."
"Kevin Love has impressed me the most. The media and newspapers said he's not ready for the NBA, but he's showing a lot of skill and toughness. Now he just needs consistancy." Mitsuaki Ohno, 31, Kawasaki Japan
Mssr Levi,
Miller is already a matchup issue. Anybody he is guarding can drive the lane at will.
Foye has earned the starting 2 spot for the foreseeable future, and we have two cheap,young options at 3 next year (Carney and Brewer).
Explain to me how Miller is anything more than a disappointing luxury on this roster going forward.
McCants' trade value has been nil since it became clear that we decided to glue him to the bench. Anybody with an interest can simply call his agent and wait for next season to sign him.
Um, how about because he's in the worst shooting slump of his career and because shooters as good as him usually bounce back? Also, while his D isn't good, he rebounds well and still contributes offensively.
I don't think him being on his third team indicates anything. He's been in the league for almost nine seasons and has been a contributor on five playoff teams. Chauncey Billups is on his 7th team (counting Denver twice); what does that indicate about him?
If they get a decent deal for him, I have no problem trading him. But they don't have to trade him now, so why would they do it when everyone would try to lowball them?
As for McCants, didn't we trade an underachieving shot-jacker in the last year of his contract for a 2nd-rounder and a guy who played well for us last year? McCants is a better player than Gerald Green, so dealing him is not impossible.
What PagingStan said re Miller.
Regarding McCants? I guess we'll know in a couple of weeks if Stack has a prayer that works...
Speaking of prayers, the Boston Globe brings us the latest from the McHale KoolAid machine:
So, how long will Kevin McHale remain on the bench?
"I don't know," he said. "I would not make a commitment that I couldn't keep. I just don't think you should do that. You kind of just wait and see how everything goes. We'll go from here. But I'm very connected to these guys. I brought most of them here and I want them to have success. That's a driving force for me. We'll see. The difference is the guys believe in each other. It has nothing to do with me. My biggest contribution is all the prayers I say for them."
Chuckle. Gotta love that last line. It's probably true.
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