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On the Ball
The Three-Pointer: Worse Than Last Year?
Photo copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by Don Smith/NBAE via Getty Images)
Game #22, Home Game #11: Minnesota 86, San Antonio 98
Game #23, Road Game #12: Los Angeles Lakers 98, Minnesota 86
Game #24, Road Game #13: Sacramento 118, Minnesota 103
Season Record: 4-20
1. No D in Fun
Are we having fun yet? A mere week ago, fun was the bromide then-incoming coach Kevin McHale was invoking as a means to rejuvenate this sorry basketball team. And it made some sense: Ex-coach Randy Wittman had scarred and tethered the mindset of his young charges toward a fear of mistakes, consuming brain cells that might otherwise be engaged in learning how to play this game at the pro level-- or at least remembering the inspiration for *why* you played the game in the first place. Before he had his superstar abortion and was forced to walk around with the letters "KG" stenciled in scarlet on his reputation, McHale was a fun-loving guy. Besides, when you tell your team of 'tweeners that your master plan is to outquick opponents in the paint, you can't really do it with a straight face. So, fun it is! A lot of pace up and down the court. Try to put a wry spin on things when you're working the refs. No hangdog on all those muffed layups. Backslaps and handclaps are in, whipcracks and negative feedback are out.
And, best of all, nobody has to trouble themselves with playing defense. Yeah, that's the ticket!
Forgive the bad jokes and tortured wordplay. But if you wanted a straight take on the Wolves right now, you obviously haven't been watching. Things are profoundly awry with the franchise. Just six days ago, McHale held a postgame press conference after a tough loss to Utah and french kissed the effort of his ballclub, swearing he'd become a better coach so that all their hard work would be rewarded. Tonight, strenuously striving to keep the smoke from coming out of his ears, Coach McHale scrubbed the bottom of his bench and played the entire fourth quarter with a lineup that included veteran journeymen Kevin Ollie and Brian Cardinal, rookie Kevin Love, fringe athletic-swingman Rodney Carney, and glutton for vitriol and martyrdom Rashad McCants. Aside from the fact that it applies the nail set to the remaining shards of Bassy Telfair's confidence, I can't disagree with this otherwise abstruse snit-by-substitution. It represents the first cracks in the fun facade, which hasn't even worked as well as Randy Wittman's Boris Karloff imitation.
The Timberwolves literally don't know how to play, don't know the basics of functioning as a synergistic five-man unit. Aside from the insult their presence posed to the benched starters, that's why Ollie and Cardinal were in the game, to provide a primer on Team Basketball 101. Seriously.
Furthermore, the Timberwolves literally don't know how to compete, don't grasp how shameful it is to passively concede eminently winnable games to opponents who join you down in the dregs of the NBA talent pool.
The Sacramento Kings are a rotten basketball team. Just hours before squaring off with the Wolves, they fired their coach, Reggie Theus, for losing ten of the past 11 games. They have been without their leading scorer, Kevin Martin, for a month now. They opened tonight's game missing 13 of their first 14 shots, a product of their incompetence much more than Minnesota's defensive vigor, enabling the Wolves to leap out to a 15-3 lead. The Kings were mentally ready to shut it down for the night, to go through the motions for 48 minutes and then go home and absorb the sea change wrought by Theus's firing. It required an extraordinary level of laziness and dysfunction by the Wolves to reinterest Sacramento in this game. It required a performance on the defensive end of the court bereft of intensity, trust, pride and anticipation. In the grand scheme of the NBA, it's small potatoes to hear that a 4-19 team played with such a will for losing that it resusitated a 6-18 ballclub that had been ready to die. But when you watch such a game, it leaves a bad taste on your memory that's not easily erased.
Let's get specific. Even before he damaged his ankle, Mike Miller exhibited an almost shocking absence of foot speed on defense. The injury simply puts him three steps behind his man instead of two. Under McHale, Craig Smith has proven he can pretty much score on anybody--and that most anyone taller than 6-8 can score on him. Al Jefferson and Randy Foye fashion themselves as stars, not gritty glue guys who regard a deft defensive rotation to be as important as finding the rhythm on their jump shots. That leaves 250-pound Ryan Gomes as your defensive stopper against the league's most gifted scorers out on the wing. Consequently, once up by a dozen against an inept foe whose record was nearly as pathetic as their own, the Wolves relaxed. Whether they truly thought they had the game won or merely hoped it was so is moot; defensively they had no intention of pressing their advantage.
After opening 1-14 FG, the Kings sank 4 of their final 7 shots of the first period to make a game of it after all, down just six, 26-20. Their sense of possibility quickens just as the Wolves are hitting automatic pilot--relying on Jefferson for offense and opponents' misses on defense--in the second quarter. Big Al is a dervish on the left block, shooting over Brad Miller, splitting double teams and overpowering the other Sacramento bigs. He finishes the period 8-10 FG; the rest of the Wolves are 3-8 FG. But Jefferson is giving it all back at the other end, and his teammates are following his defensive lead. Less than ten minutes into the second quarter, Sacramento already has 16 points in the paint for the period, and has scored on nine straight possessions. A trey at the halftime buzzer gives the Kings a 53-50 lead. The rout begins in the third quarter, as the Kings successfully dedicate themselves to denying Jefferson the ball--he had 22 points in the first half on 11-17 FG, and was shut out with just three FGA in the second half--and maximize their discovery that the Wolves have no one with enough length and quickness to successfully defend the paint. Sac hits 6 of its first 7 shots, outscore the Wolves 33-17 in the third, and compel McHale to empty his bench.
Defense, as the cliche tells us, wins championships, and that's because it is reliable--when the players buy in and learn the schemes, it is far more consistent than the most high-powered offense. But the reverse also tends to be true: Lousy defense will make you a consistent loser. Friday night against San Antonio at the Target Center, Minnesota consistently allowed the Spurs to drift into the corners for open three-pointers--in part because they were sealing the lane to prevent Tony Parker from duplicating his 55 point effort from earlier this year (TP got his crunchtime layups anyway) but in part because they lack the commitment, the experience and the foot speed to effectively extend their rotations. More than two pointers or free throws, the Spurs won the game through their advantage outside--8-18 3pt FG versus Minnesota's 2-6 3pt FG.
Then Sunday night at the Staples Center, the Wolves were up three versus the Lakers midway through the third when they decided to take a half-dozen defensive possessions for granted and it cost them the game (or at least any speck of a chance of winning it). The Laker boomlet began with a long Kobe trey--no shame there. But then Lamar Odom glides by Kevin Love and Luke Walton finds himself open against Shaddy McCants, and no teammates effectively help out in either case. Then, after Love misses an easy jumper off a feed from Mike Miller, Foye and Jefferson totally screw up the pick and roll defense, leading to dribble penetration and a kick out to Walton for a wide-open trey to complete the 10-0 run. Later in the period, Odom against beats Love down the court and Foye again is flat-footed one moment, belatedly bum-rushing a successful three point shooter the next.
Just a week into his coaching stint, McHale is already where Wittman descended after two years--playing Ollie and Cardinal (who have no viable role in the future of this franchise) as both examples of veteran professionalism and punishment for the cocky young'uns who don't expend the effort. His current mantra--that he hasn't had sufficient practice time to implement his program and philosophy--is rich to those of us who remember McHale snorting about the sophistication of today's game. Players are players, the grumpy old man would say. It isn't that hard--common sense, actually--to know how to play the right way, he'd say. Five guys who play right can beat five more talented guys who don't play right, he'd say. During those reductive discussions, tons of practice time was never part of his argument.
2. The Unbearable Lightness of the Wolves Recent Draft Picks
Shaddy McCants and Kevin Love bookend the vision McHale once had for rebuilding the Timberwolves, with or without KG. The Wolves need to hope that Love is further along in Year Four than McCants is now, of course, and I'm pretty sure he will be. But both players are significantly flawed and will probably remain incomplete performers--never a good verdict when talking about a first-round pick. McCants's regression this year has become even more apparent with a more sympathetic coach, McHale instead of Wittman, dictating playing time. Shaddy is a ball-hog addict, in that even when he's laying off and playing soberly, getting all his teammates involved, you know there's an integral part of him just dying to control the rock and jack up shots. There is a beguiling amount of genuine talent for filling the hoop lurking here, no doubt. The problem--or maybe it's a blessing, because it makes it easier to consider cutting your losses--is that McCants has become either incapable or unwilling to play quality team defense, and has increasingly revealed a pattern of being a garbage-time dynamo and a crunchtime bust. Watching Shaddy stay with Kobe and eventually rise up and block his shot Sunday, and then watching him yet again drain a procession of meaningless baskets late in Monday's game stirs up anger at his lost potential. The fans have already decided--the booing he received after missing a layup against the Spurs Friday was harsh and heartfelt. But those of us who want to see him succeed wonder what's missing from his heart that prevents him from more consistently utilizing the guile and anticipatory quickness he displayed against Kobe? And what's missing from his psyche that allows him to pile on the points in meaningless situations and clank so reliably when the pressure is on?
Love has very different issues. The old saying "You can't teach height" is usually given a positive spin and invoked in reference to a very tall individual. But it applies in a negative way to Love, who has the skill set of a classic low-post operator but is simply too short and unathetic to be a dominant force. Someone who grabs as many offensive rebounds as Love should be shooting well over 50% on the basis of the high-percentage putbacks alone. But if Love can't tip the ball in or finish a putback immediately while crashing the boards on the weak side, he's better off passing the ball back out and restarting the half-court set. His nose for the offensive board doesn't extend to his timing nor his instinct for drawing contact when he goes up for the putback. This weekend's games revealed another disturbing trend: Love is being beaten down the court on a fairly regular basis, by big men such as Bynum, Gasol and Odom of the Lakers and Thompson and Hawes of the Kings. A pint-sized big (and at under 6-10, Love qualifies) who doesn't beat his man down the floor is targeted for extinction in the NBA, and while Love isn't that blatantly deficient, he needs to upgrade his defense in transition, let alone in the half court, if he's going to remove the question marks from his resume. Of course the same could be said for Jefferson, Craig Smith and every big on the roster except Mark Madsen. Isn't that depressing?
3. Some Quick NBA Takes
I never liked Theus much as a player, but it is hard not to be impressed with his record in Sacramento. Any coach who could coax 38 wins out of last year's Kings' ballclub deserved more than 24 games this season.
It is turning out to be a fabulous year for rookie point guards and MVP candidates. The best of the former is Derrick Rose, of course, but I've been really impressed with OKC's Russell Westbrook and Miami's Mario Chalmers (the guy the Wolves gave away for nothing because they were so besotted with obtaining Miller, Love, etc, for Mayo and company). In the MVP race, I'd put Chauncey Billups up there with LeBron, Wade, and Dwight Howard.
Speaking of Mike Miller, he's obviously extremely popular among this teammates, and when I focused on the quality of his passing against the Kings (instead of loudly lamenting his disinclination to shoot), he's also possessed of above-average court vision. But when a bad shot from you is as likely to go in as a good shot from a teammate, isn't the "right' way to play to be a little more selfish?
54 Reader Comments
I commend Britt on his willingness to keep a hard eye to defense. Those of us with less fortitude tend to watch the offense, since it is easier to follow, assess, and critique. So, having said that, here's how it looks from my place in the cheap seats: Too small, too slow, their only real scorers (Jefferson and McCants) are flow killers, and something very strange is going on with Mike MIller.
This team has the 29th ranked eFG in the league with a mark nearly 4 points below the league average. Here's something I wrote over at Hoopus:
"They have the 2nd worst eFG in the league at 45.5%. That is absurdly bad. Only OKC is worse. The Wolves are accomplishing this task with a below average number of 3 point attempts; which means that they are missing 2 pointers at a surprising clip. In fact, the Wolves have the league's 28th worst 2FG% at .355%. That doesn't include inside shots but it gives you a sense of just how bad they are playing from mid-range. Even their inside shooting leaves something to be desired. The Wolves sport the league's 27th worst inside shooting percentage at .553%. Q: What does this mean for a team with zero guard play and an interior #1 scorer? A: disaster. I'm not sure how you coach up shooting this bad. Who do you turn to? The Wolves have only 3 players with above a 50% eFG. "
I know it seems counter intuitive but the Wolves are worse on offense this year than defense. This year they have the 25th ranked defense with a DE of 109.8. This is improved from last year's disaster of 111.2, which was good for 27th in the league. Right now the Wolves have an OE of 102.5, which is good for 26th in the league and nearly a point and a half down from last year's mark, which was also good for 27th in the league.
There is also a positive dissonance associated with the team's DE numbers. They rank 25th in the league in DE but give up the 23rd fewest points. On offense, they have the 26th ranked OE and score the 26th most points.
They are performing admirably (compared to last year) at the free throw line, they are dominating the offensive glass, they are turnover neutral, and they are getting destroyed by poor shooting.
They currently have a -4.5% differential on shooting percentage. That's good for 29th in the league.
Last night's game was a textbook example of why this team fails. It wasn't because of D. They had a fantastic pace last night of 101. They had a better FT/FG rate, dominated the offensive glass, and were relatively turnover neutral. They took 86 shots and 34 free throws compared to 85 and 29 for the Kings. They shot 38% through 3. Right before Shaddy starting piling on garbage points in the 4th, their eFG was below 40%. Against the Lakers they shot 33% in the first 1/2 and were only down by 5.
Defense is great but it was never happening with this club. This club was supposed to be able to shoot. That's it's biggest failure and I'm pinning it straight on the most dysfunctional backcourt rotation in recent NBA memory.
If you want to point to a single area why this team is probably worse than last year (to give my answer to your question), it is the guard play. You can even throw in the 3. They have either the worst or the 2nd worst positional stats at the 1 and 3. Foye and Miller have put up enough net stats to render the 2 merely mediocre but that's headed in the wrong direction as well. This team has zero useful perimeter players at the moment. They were lit up by Orlando's 2nd and 3rd string guards. We can talk all we want about the length and athleticism of the frontcourt, but the backcourt is worse. A lot worse.
I'm not sure where the majority of blame should lie, but I'd grade the Wolves something like this:
Backcourt Offense - D+
Frontcourt Offense - A-
Backcourt Defense - D-
Frontcourt Defense - D-
It's getting hard to watch these games, and it's only December.
You got the sense after last night's game that another change needs to be made to revitalize (for the sake of argument, let's assume they were once *vital*) the Wolves. But now they've played their hand by firing Wittman. What's left? A trade? A lineup shift? It kind of feels like something *has* to happen or else they'll never win, but we don't have many options at this point. Ugh. Thanks for the continued coverage, Britt.
After last nights game I think that no one is untouchable at this point. And yes, that includes Big Al. The team needs to go through a drastic makeover at all levels. Please Glen, can we finally cut the cord with McHale. It's bordering on insanity. Fans will not turn out (the 1200 that are left) to see this product anymore. I need at least 5 vodka tonics to make it through watching a game. My health is in the balance!!
Otherwise, we are seeing the future 2010 Seattle Supersonics. Which is very depressing to think about.......
Great wrap up, it's impressive to produce entertaining writing about such an unentertaining team. Love deserves props for his rebounding and may be the only positive thing about this season, but it's becomming undeniable that the Mayo trade was a disaster if not organizational suicide.
Yes, the Grizzlies just won four straight, Mayo dropped 28 to increase his better than 20 ppg average and is shooting above 45 percent as a rookie. Miller, like many of us said, has proved virtually useless on a team this bad. Love, to his credit, is a gritty but overall flawed player. A nice prospect but no comparison to Mayo, who is easily outscoring him and Miller combined while the Wolves guards are playing at a sub NBA reserve level. Let's hope that cap flexibillity is put to amazingly good use!
Britt, I have no idea whether the new fun-loving McHale is any more approachable than the old grumpy one. But is it possible to ask him in a way that does not offend him what he thinks of the talent level and chemistry potential on this team now that he has been on the floor with them? I'm serious. All of us out here see a train wreck. Theoretically, he is a better basketball mind than all of us. Does he still see something? If so, what?
Your commentary on Shaddy plays right into my 2008-9 nickname for him - JV Kobe.
Pregnant pauses in the TV broadcast have become frequent. For those keeping track at home I believe it was the J-Pete "how do I simultaneously meet my obligation to myself, the handful of remaining viewers and my employer with my next comment" pregnant pause number 17 on the night.
Shaddy had just sunk his third trey in garbage time to bring our favorite squad within 14 with maybe four minutes to play. Hanneman commented on a massive McCants fist pump. I was incredulous and so too was Pete. After a five second eternity, Peterson with half a voice responded with something like "it would be nice to see that from Shaddy with the game on the line for a change." It was so quiet, Hanny asked him to repeat the comment. I wanted to reach through the tv and hug the big lug.
Jim,
I agree. The Mayo trade has been an unabashed catastrophe for our franchise. It was another "What was McHale thinking?" kind of moment, even on draft night, for people who thought McHale was selling us short when he traded Mayo for several unathletic gap fillers to fill gaps on a team loaded with gaping holes rather than tiny crevices that could be adequately fixed with players like Love and Miller. Stop-n-Pop gave a well thought out defense of the deal yesterday on his blog, and I'm not trying to denigrate the opinion of those people whose views I respect. But when it's al said and done, my own view is that this trade can't be viewed as anything other than a disaster for the future of the Wolves, which as others have pointed out, may be trotting out the worst backcourt in recent NBA history and could surely use Mayo, one of the best young guards in the league.
I hadn't heard/seen anyone take it as far as calling the deal "organizational suicide," but you may be right. Roy-Foye was sort of like harmful but non-lethal self-mutiliation, but now the depressed franchise might be on the road to a slow, painful death due to McHale's OD on Love's pre-draft workouts and 35'' vertical leap.
With the loss of Corey Brewer, I am starting to believe that we now are probably the most unathletic team in the NBA. No matter which team we are playing, or even which string is out on the court, the T-wolves seem to be less athletic at 3 or 4 positions. A pretty big mountain to climb every night.
McHale is right 5 guys playing right can beat 5 more talented guys. Teams I played on in college/after college did it many times. But it holds true ONLY if that the overall athleticism and skill level is not orders of magnitude different. In my team's case,when we hit our 30's, we were still a much better team than the 20 year olds we played - but we stopped winning because we were so much less athletic. Which where the T-wolves find themselves today.
Unfortunately, this has come about because McHale himself has severely over valued "knowing how to play" in comparison to athleticism and filled the roster accordingly. It is NOT going to be an easy fix. We will need to turn the roster over significantly to get up to an average level of athleticism. It is NOT going to come through practice......
S+P--
Yes, from a statistical perspective, you are probably right, the numbers lay the blame at the Wolves' inability to hit shots. But for a team clanking at a horrendous 42.6% not that many of those misses seem like stupid shots. Yeah, McCants gets tunnel vision, and Foye and Gomes occasionally slip in their shot selection. But more often than not, their unconverted field goal attempts don't look boneheaded as they're going up.
A couple things are going on here. First of all, the Wolves clearly lead the league in missed putbacks, which pumps up their offensive rebounding numbers and decimates their field goal percentage. Kevin Love is *averaging* 3.6 offensive rebounds per game and yet is shooting 40.4%! Even Craig Smith's 51.9% accuracy looks suspect when you consider how often the Rhino scores when he drives down the lane--putbacks are dragging down his percentage too. It is laughable that the Wolves are leading the NBA in "second chance points." I'd bet they are middling in 2nd chance pts and lapping the league in 3rd and 4th chance points.
Second, for whatever reason, Foye and McCants are having historically terrible shooting seasons. Foye, who is second on the team in FGA, is a career 43.2% shooter, and 38.7% from outside; this year he's at 38.9% and 25%. For his career, McCants is 44.1% overall and 37.9% from three point range, compared to his current 35.6% and 25.7%.
But I repeat, the shots being taken are not head-slappers. Mike Miller is almost comically handing out dimes on a silver platter, only to watch the wide open look strike iron. The Wolves are moving the ball, and under McHale have begun to attack the basket more frequently.
By contrast, the defensive effort from this crew makes them a very unlikeable squad to watch. I have never seen a player so sophisticated at one end of the court and so clueless at the other as Al Jefferson. Someone who thrives on foot positioning at one end of the court doesn't deign to move his feet at the other. McCants and Foye frequently take plays off. Love and Smith are often overmatched, but nearly as often are being beaten in transition by larger, heavier opponents.
To sum up, the Wolves may be performing less admirably on offense from a statistical standpoint, but as a viewer catching the game, their shoddy defense is what jumps out and creates such a rotten impression.
Jim & Shogun,
Agreed completely. A couple questions about The Trade:
1) Wouldn't it be nice to have a two-way guard that takes serious pride in his defense, while being better-known for his offense?
2) Is there a single player in the next draft that will be as good as OJ Mayo?
The first one is an obvious "yes." The second involves a lot of speculation, but I have serious doubts that (other than Blake Griffin, who happens to play...you guessed it, POWER FORWARD!!!) there will be a 2009-10 rookie with OJ's all-around game. Hell, he's been better than Beasley, so far.
I supported the Love/Mayo trade on draft day. I also supported the Roy for Foye trade on the day it occurred. Likewise, I supported trading KG for the list of players and draft picks.
I am a rummy and a horrible evaluator of NBA talent. I can see the WOlves deficiencies as a team. They are horrible, no doubt. But, to me, Love looks like a player. I cannot see what Randy Foye lacks to be a decent guard, even point guard, in the league. Mike Miller should fill an important role on a team with a dominant inside scorer like Jefferson and Ryan Gomes looks pretty good too. Add Craig Smith, Rashad McCants, Corey brewer and Bassy and this team should be athletic enough, and good enough to be a better team than last year. But, they are not better.
I could still convince myself that they are merely in a shooting slump and once Foye, McCants, Miller start hitting a lot of threes and open it up more for Al, Love and Smith down low, this team is going to be able to play with any team in the league. But, I really don't believe that.
What would this team look like if it had drafted Mayo. They could have taken Chalmers with the 2nd round pick too and not signed Bassy. Either Foye or McCants would have had some trade value that was higher than their current value with the club now and they might have gotten a decent three or big man if packaged with Antoine Walker or Jaric. And Speaking of Jaric, I can't believe I am sayin this, but I actually miss him over having Miller right now.
Miller's reluctance to shoot and his liability on defense makes him a role player that not too many teams could use. At least, Jaric could get in passing lanes and make some steals while providing some ball handling chores on the offensive side. And, he was a threat enough from the three point line for teams to be reluctant to leave him alone to double down on Al.
What we could have had.
Chalmers,
Mayo
Jaric
Gomes
Jefferson
Foye
Rashad
Smith
We'd still be undersized, but Foye or McCants might have been traded for another big and the Mayo Jefferson inside out would be better than anything they have right now. What we would be talking about is the tension between both players and who the offense should run through and that would be more exciting than talking about how good the Wolves might look if their best outside shooter would ever decide to shoot.
The Wolves are a bad team. The only bright spot is Kevin Love and I do think he can be a good NBA player if he is nto already. But, I'm a rummy and I no longer trust any impression I have of NBA players anymore.
Britt:
I'm not denying they're a bad defensive team. My point with the OE/DE is that they are who we thought they were on defense and they aren't who they thought they were on offense. I think you make an excellent point about the quality of their shots. They're not missing a bunch of dumb shots. As for Love, check out his 82games shot chart:
http://www.82games.com/0809/08MIN11.HTM
He's only hitting .275 (eFG) on his jumpers. He's getting 20% of his inside shots blocked. For the life of me I don't understand why they don't run some high post pick and pops for the guy. Hell, throw in some 4 out/1 in or 5 out sets and see what he can do away from the bucket. He can still crash the boards from this position. Granted, he's off to a terrible shooting start but they have to start building his game up to where it will eventually have to be in the NBA. He's a high post pick and pop kind of guy who can rebound the hell out of the ball.
Andy G:
Take a look at James Harden. Tyreke Evans has the skill set to be a solid pro. In the front court, check out Greg Monroe of Georgetown.
Free agent/trade wise, if they can't land Gerald Wallace, keep an eye on Trevor Ariza. Kobe has a player option this year and they are well over the cap if he decides to stay.
SnP-
I have to see Harden play--his numbers are really impressive. The only thing that will give me pause (like it stupidly did with Brandon Roy) is if he looks somewhat unathletic on the NBA 2-Guard scale. My point above was just that Mayo was a sure-thing (at least to be "good" and we certainly could use a "good" guard right now) and we passed on him for less of a sure thing, in Love. Love has identifiable skills and identifiable shortcomings (calling lack of size a "weakness" is unfair, even if partially true). My guess is that we'll be in a bit of a crapshoot in the '09 Draft, and those haven't worked in our favor since 1995.
Keep the faith Brit. As a Knicks fan who had to endure a similarly talented GM/Coach in Isiah, all I can say is there is a light at the end of the tunnel for yall. Maybe in 2015. If it's of any comfort I think Big Al is more talented than any current Knick.
As far as painful draft decisions goes Weiss over Artest might be worse than
Love, Miller at least are servicable players
Good luck
Thanks for the draft names, Stop-N-Pop. Just a note, Chad Ford has his draft lottery preview/fun page up at espn.com. The NBA: Where summer before Christmas happens.
Regarding the defense, there was so much casual penetration last night I thought the game was on Cinemax, not KSTC. (Talk about your bad jokes and tortured wordplay!)
Seriously though, this McHale led team has as many identity issues as a Wittman team. Why? Psst...it's the talent!
Up-tempo team? Bad perimeter and wing finishers, primary front court finisher more adept at half-court game, un-athletic.
Smashmouth team? Undersized front court; one guy who grabs a lot of offensive rebounds (Love) can't finish.
Defensive team? Please.
And going back to the Casey era, you have the raging inconsistency. For example, against the Lakers, the team had 23 assists, against the Kings 13. Of course, the excuse now is that they're young.
In fact, the Kings game resembled a Kris Humphries led Gopher team a few years back, where Humphries would get the ball, score a lot, pass little and then get frozen out by his teammates. How else can one explain 22 points by Jefferson in the first half, and hardly any touches in the second? And, where exactly was the coaching to remind our other players that one of their teammates was incredibly hot in the first half?
In the end, if the Wolves aren't what we thought they'd be on offense, then they're going to have be better than we thought they'd be on defense. Or, Britt's caption will be a harbinger of results to come: worse than last year.
Hard to see any progress in that outcome.
After Kevin Ollie pushed the tempo, drove the lane for uncontested layups, and drove the lane to create contact and free throws (all against Sac-town's second unit) I was left wondering, why doesn't Randy Foye look this good against second units?
If Ollie was a 22 year old point guard instead of a 35 year old point guard, I would have come away with *something* positive about last night's game. Instead, I worry even more about Randy Foye.
What the hell is going on with this team. They really cannot shoot the ball. It's so obvious, I don't even need stats. Foye just can't shoot. His skills are regressing. Depressing.
At least Love has some identifiable skill (rebounding). What the hell is Foye's identifiable skill? He's just inconsistent. McCants can't even score. Ugh.
agreed with the dire assessments of the backcourt play offered here. agreed that Love's offensive rebounding is encouraging. agreed also, of course, that mchale needs a retirement check and a fishing pole. i offer here some thoughts on ways forward.
BACKCOURT:
the entirety of the backcourt needs to be rethought and/or blown up: miller, foye, mccants, telfair, etc. i have a suspicion that foye would make a decent first guard off the bench on a championship team, but have doubted for ages that he has the goods to lead a competitive club. it is his lack of leadership, as much as his lack of handle or defensive commitment, that has me depressed. simply put, no one will ever take cues from him during a heated game 7. i say keep him, but start getting comfortable with owning the foye-for-roy trade publicly. we can get something for miller, so let's do it and fast. we are well past the point of worrying about it getting any worse. maybe that something is the disappearance of another contract (telfair's?), maybe it's a pick in a draft not quite so lame as this one. (we couldn't have had four last year?!) at present, we have exactly *one* legit rotation guard (foye) and he belongs as a combo backup. fortunately, this draft has a few guards. we do, however, have to act decisively and target guards who have clear identities and potential as complete players. fit foye in next to them, rather than vice versa. harden and rubio are my priorities. our slew of picks should make one of those players available. craig smith should help us get close to the next best player at the guard position we don't fill with our first pick. use whatever low picks remain either (a) to swap for future picks or (b) to pick players we can develop overseas. my wish for 2009-10: an identifiable franchise distributer, a two-way shooter, and a healthy corey brewer on the same court. keep gomes, play him almost exclusively at the 3, release carney. i don't like gerald wallace at his likely price; very interesting suggestion about ariza, by SnP, though.
FRONTCOURT:
how soon before we call time of death on the jefferson/love frontcourt experiment? given that i suggest we address the backcourt in the current draft, we leave the experiment (even with its known outcome) in place for another year and attempt to teach some defense. long-term, we look to add a defensive presence (noah?) that has perhaps become undervalued elsewhere, and wait for our dead-contract bigs to come off the books. this gives us a second year of kevin love to make the jefferson vs. love decision -- inevitable since draft day -- easier to make. for the record, i like love.
this, of course, leaves us many pieces away from competing. but i think it is a realistic picture. we have, i think, at most five championship caliber rotation players: foye, love, jefferson, miller, and brewer. we likely have to eliminate one as a matter of logistics (love vs. jefferson), one will serve as a third guard in a rotation (foye), and one (miller) has --hopefully i can still use the present tense here-- more trade value than long-term value in a club three years minimum away from serious contention. that leaves the team with three players, and leaves me seriously hoping the scouts are wrong about the talent level of this year's draft.
Peter:
I did a Google quote search on McHale circa the Casey firing. It's a gold mine of material with the Iron Ranger now at the end of the bench.
It is surprising just how bad the talent was on this team. I thought they would have at least 4 or 5 average players and that this would translate into a nice core of players (outside Jefferson) that could settle either into glue roles or solid bench performers. Love and Smith are the only worthwhile non-Jefferson players on this team right now. Miller would be if he was able to reprise his Memphis role on a team with other functional perimeter players. Their 3 best players all play the same position. At least we know McHale can evaluate power forward talent.
OK, I'll be the one to bring out the hyperbole and the alcohol. Since the KG trade, there has been an eerily similar trajectory to the Celtics' incline and the Wolves' decline. Their records at any one time over the last two seasons are almost always mirror images, their winning and losing streaks often coincide, and with all of the ex-Wolves and ex-Celtics on the other rosters it's hard not to see them as Bizarro images of one another.
Last season ESPN ran a graphic for awhile tracing the Celtics vs. the '96 Bulls for best record ever and the Wolves vs. the Sixers for worst record ever. The thing was, though, very few REALLY thought either team would end up eclipsing the competition.
This year, though, the Celtics are playing even better and look like (barring injury) they could make a SERIOUS run at 70+ wins (and the Lakers and Cavs seem to be pushing them to do it). Likewise, outside of that mini flurry of 3 wins for the Wolves, they have looked significantly worse than last year's crew.
And the signs aren't pretty...just like the New Jersey game marked the point where the wheels officially came off for Whitman, last night's Sac game had that feel for Mchale. And as someone else pointed out...there don't seem to be any other levers for the Wolves to pull. There's no injured Foye to hope will come back and revive the team. There's no scapegoat coach to fire and "change the outlook". Barring a big trade to at least get new people on the floor and give give a new talking point to hang onto...where is the hope for improvement?
And if, ridiculously, the Celtics were to top the Bulls and the Wolves to bottom the 76ers in the same season... is there even a word or phrase in the English language that could encompass what that would be like for a Timberwolves fan?
The really bad part is that...it doesn't seem like a stretch at all that this happens. I feel like I'm watching a train wreck in slow motion, and it's so morbidly fascinating that it almost makes it worth it to sit through the incredibly depressing games...
drza44:
It will get especially interesting if they head into Memphis with 18 straight losses. 0-December is a pretty real possibility right now and that would leave them with 4 wins before the new year...which is exactly where they were last year.
On Jan 2 they head into what should be, on paper, the easiest part of their scheudle with games against Golden State, Chicago, Memphis, OKC, Milwaukee, Miami, and the Clippers before things get nasty again with Utah, NOLA, and Phoenix. This is also where the B2Bs are really going to hurt them. They have 4 sets in Jan. The back ends are at Chicago, against OKC, @ Utah, and @ Milwaukee.
This has the potential to get really ugly.
It is obvious that it is time to blow up the roster. The main problem is that there are few parts of it that any sane GM/coach would want. Our best trade asset is Mike Miller, and he should be traded immediately before other teams realize what a terrible defender he truly is. There is no point having him on a team that is this bad. Our next best assets are the first round picks in the upcoming not-very-deep draft. We also need to realize that upcoming cap space McHale made this past summer isn't going to matter that much as no quality free agent is going to want to play for the Wolves as they are a terrible basketball team in a small media market. This team is so bad that I've already begun to look at next year's draft and it isn't even Christmas.
This one is expensive but works:
Mike Miller for Samuel Dalembert.
Wolves get shot blocking defensive center.
Sixers get the shooter they need to put alongside Elton Brand.
Dalembert makes a lot of money. But his PER numbers are historically solid (although down this year, likely because he's playing less and the Sixers are in disarray).
Just a thought.
The only way you can "blow up" this roster is by trading Al Jefferson. Any other trades would hardly make the news. We "blew up" the KG roster and got about $0.50 on the $1.00 in return. The same would likely happen if we trade Jefferson. Since we're already headed toward the top of the lottery, I don't see any gains in taking less than market value for our best player.
We could trade Foye, Miller, Love, McCants, Telfair, Gomes, Brewer, Carney, whoever--and possibly bring back a more helpful or valuable player. There are probably plausible trade scenarios involving those players that would help us in the short and long term. But, they wouldn't qualify as "blowing up the roster" since they aren't important pieces to any teams' success--including ours.
This is simplifying things, but it seems like the athletic guys have no clue how to play basketball. No good instincts on the floor, just an ability to run and jump. The guys who know how to play a little bit aren't great athletes. Not a good mix...
I was excited when we drafted Roy, as he was touted as the most NBA ready and complete player in the draft. Just what the Wolves needed! However, they got cute and decided the Foye was the better fit, and traded Roy.
I was excited when we drafted Mayo, as he was touted as a skilled guard, NBA ready, with a great shot and gym rat mentality. Just what the Wolves needed! Then they got cute and packaged him for Kevin Love and Mike Miller.
I was excited when we drafted Mario Chalmers. He was a projected 1st round PG, and seemed to have a legitimate chance to contribute, something that is rare out of 2nd round picks. However, we tradeded him for a future 2nd round pick. If I was a betting man, I would bet that whoever we get with that pick will be out of the league in a few years. That is simply the odds with second rounders.
They simply overthink every choice, and always muck it up.
We have a lot of tradable assets. We have some young potential, and we have expiring contracts. With teams trying to get under the cap in 2010, we could do some things.
Trade 1: Trade either Mike Miller or Jason Collins and Foye/McCants to the Clippers for Chris Kaman. Kaman is a solid center and is only 26 years old. This would allow Al Jefferson to move to PF.
Trade 2: Trade whoever wasn't traded to the Clips to the Knicks for Eddy Curry and their 2009 and 2011 1st round picks. We could also take Jared Jeffries contract off their hands.
This gives us an established front court with Jefferson and Kaman, and a lot of draft picks to hopefully fill out the back court.
You lost me at Eddy Curry. Is the thinking that we'd have to take Curry to get their draft picks? Or that Curry could turn it around as a Timberwolf next to Kaman and Jefferson? I'd be all for a Kaman deal, but I'm not sure it's worth taking on the Knicks' bad contracts just for a couple more first round picks, which we've already stockpiled a lot of.
Nate - getting Dalembert would be nice. There are several things to consider about your proposed trade:
1) McHale is being forced to "put up" or "shut up" with the team that he assembled. I just don't think that there are any trades on the horizon.
2) McHale has seemed to eschew the true center, apparently believing that his star "big man", i.e. first KG and now Jefferson, could be competitive. So even if the Wolves were willing to do trades, Dalembert is probably very low on their list of possible transactions.
3) Although you referenced "expensive" in terms of dollars, I'll maintain that trading Miller for Dalembert would be extremely costly in leadership.
Watched the first three quarters last night. The most disturbing thing about the game to me wasn't effort, lack of skill or any specifically basketball-related issue. It's that I think some of the players are starting to lose thier minds. McCants has always seemed to be in his own world, but that world now seems to have drifted even furthur away. What do you think goes through his head when he's on the court with Kevin Ollie and Brian Cardinal, down by 20 and listening to smack from the likes of Mikki Moore? The guy won a national championship; I remember when we drafted him reading a few columnists that thought he was going to be a ROY candidate. Remember when he went chest to chest with Gary Payton and KG walked over to back him up? I'm thinking that moment lives on as Rashad's happy place, where he goes when catching and draining a three after a kick-out from Cardinal, the game decided long ago.
Then you've got Big Al, who acts like he's the real basketball player and the other Wolves are just warm bodies to be discarded as soon as the other good players show up. Message to Al - they are never coming. It's just you and the other guys on the team, so you might as well stop acting like you're better than them. Look at the teams you have played for. They have always sucked. We had a one-player team for years before you came. We know what one looks like, and this isn't it. I like the pretty moves but I like hustle as well. I cannot see Big Al diving for a ball. I cannot see this no matter how hard I try. I am sick of seeing Big Al glare at another player, then get abused on defense, brick a shot, get abused on defense again, demand the ball when he's not open which causes a steal, get abused on defense, then head to the bench after a time-out even more pissed off than before. Screw Big Al.
Finally, I just want to see Randy Foye smile. Seriously, I think that's the secret with him. He looks painfully unhappy, and I can't see how that's good for the team's game. We keep saying that some of these guys will be good someday, on another team. I keep thinking of the ex-Twin Latroy Hawkins. One theory about him was that he got beat so much early on that he could not see himself succeding, which is why he almost always melted down in pressure situations. The same thing will happen with these guys if something doesn't change.
Two of the most distressing Foye as PG moments came during this road trip. When the LA game was still close he obtusely crossed the timeline into a waiting double team and in the Sac team, after his PF heavy lifter got nailed in the face, he wasn't aware enough to take a timeout. Do we have any keepers on this team besieds the flawed jefferson?
It looks like the comments are winding down, and rightly so. There is only so much to say about this team without descending into repetitive venting. I would like to close with what I think is a fairly succinct assessment: we had the third overall pick in the NBA draft and are worse than last year. For my money, you can chisel that on the tombstone of this year's Timberwolves.
I haven't read all the comments and I have to go make dinner, so apologies if this has already been touched on: as much as it hurts to see Chalmers do well, we didn't get "nothing" for him. We got 2 future 2nds and $2 million. A pretty return for #34.
Although, I've been upset since the moment we traded that pick,l given the amount of talent that slipped to the 2nd round this year.
Also, with regard to blowing up the team *right now*, I think it's a bad idea regardless of how painful this season is and will continue to be.
It doesn't matter how good the Hoiberg, Stack, Babcock 3-headed monster of player personnel is or could be. We need a completely new leadership group.
There are simply too many connections to the current situation, especially the roster, for anyone currently on the staff to make clean the slate.
How can anyone but a brand new GM trade Al? Or Mike Miller? Fans would skewer the current administration for trading the players that they used to convince fans trading KG and Mayo was the way to go.
Nice to finally see an outcry about the Chalmers giveaway :)
Our best player is an offensively gifted, undersized PF who can't or won't play D.
Our second best player is an offensively gifted, undersized PF who can't or won't play D.
Our third best player is an offensively gifted, undersized PF who can't or won't play D.
I guess McHale knows his position and doesn't care about D, and that's about all you can say for him. Meanwhile, our best center is Mark Madsen and our best PG is Kevin Ollie.
So, why do the Wolves suck? Is it their lack of D, or their miserable shooting percentage? Their clueless (ex)GM? Lack of heart? Lack of athleticism? Is it because they don't know how to play? A roster stacked with redundancies and tweeners? A coach that doesn't know his X from an O?
Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, and yes!!!
midlife crisis asks if there are any "keepers on this team besides the flawed Jefferson?
I'll offer these:
* Miller - SG
Mike has unquestionable NBA starter-level talent level. And his all-around game is nice. I'll agree that it looks like he needs to work on his defense.
* Gomes - SF
Ryan works hard and has the fundamentals. Perhaps a little lacking in the talent area and needs to develop a couple of "go to" moves on offense. He'd look better if the Wolves quit overmatching him on defense.
* Love - PF
Kevin is a rookie. A young rookie. But it's already clear that he has his head in the game. If only he were a head taller. Still, he's a keeper even if he may only ever be a solid big man off the bench. Definitely worth developing.
* Telfair - PG (backup)
No, I don't think Sebastian will ever find a shooting touch. But he has shown that he can run a team for extended stints. Maybe even play some defense.
* Ollie - PG (3rd string)
There are Ollie "haters" out there, I am not one of them.
* Brewer - SF
Maybe this injury will help him add some body mass and strength.
* Collins - C
At least he is a legit body for the "5". I think that he would benefit from better coaching.
So, I say: The Wolves should trade McCants, Foye, Jefferson, and anyone else I haven't named above for a poised point guard and a serviceable center.
McCants & Madsen to Clippers for Eric Gordon and DeAndre Jordon. It works for sad Puppies because we need young, moldable, athletic talent in those positions. It works for the Clippers because they're best talent is at or just past their prime and need role players more than long-term development projects.
Britt, a small correction regarding practice never being mentioned. McHale did emphasize lots of "repetition". And I think it's good that they look sad in losses. Shows they care about the game. Better than having 2 guys in party mode like, say, Pretty Ricky and the center who's no longer in the league.
I think we'd have to make it McCants + Love for Gordon and Jordan, and I'm not sure LAC would make that move because they are loaded in the frontcourt. Gordon's a much better player than McCants, and I would've have objected to drafting Mayo and trading him for the right to draft Gordon + our first round pick back. Then we could've drafted DeAndre in the second round, which I was screaming for. But instead we did the Love/Miller deal. Anyway, it'll be Christmas come early (again) if we find a way to pry Eric Gordon from LAC. He's looked very solid on offense since he moved into the starting rotation, and the surprising thing is that he's a very good defender and ballhandler, the two supposed "knocks" on his game going into the draft.
In Wittman's last game, Gordon looked better than Foye. He actually stuffed him on a jumper, early in the game, and converted some nice hoops before the game was well out-of-reach. He's undersized (like Foye) but has a pure scorer's mentality that doesn't cause any confusion with his position or role on the team.
i really think you could comb through the D league and overseas u.s players who'd rather be in the NBA and come up with a much better roster than the Wolves currently have.
How about Love, Miller and McCants for Kamen and Eric Gordan? We gain two unquestionably talented young starting players who fit their positions and the Clippers get veteran shooting and a young big man. This trade works for both teams. It adds an exciting young player in Gordon who is explosive going to the hoop and has shootnig range as good as anyone in the league in addition to a legit center to pair with Jefferson.
Would any deal with the Clips not involve a request to remove the restrictions on the Marko deal? I can't imagine a Kaman scenario not involving Al Jefferson that doesn't involve that pick. Like him or not, Love has what I call Foye Protection. With Mayo and Roy doing what they do, Randy and Kevin aint going anywhere.
Jim:
I'd do that deal. In fact, I really like it. You get to trot out Foye/Gordon/BrewerGomes/Jefferson/Kaman. Chances are good that we'll have a chance at either Rubio or Jennings in the draft, in which case, we'd have a real point guard to go with Gordon, and Foye could slide to sixth man.
The Clips might do that deal too. They seem to want to win now, and they also seem to want to get rid of Kaman. They could run out Baron/M. Miller/Thornton/Randolph/Camby and bring Rashad and Love off the bench. That'd be an interesting trade that could help both teams.
Stop-n-pop I think your right about the "Foye protection" and though a trade like the one I mentioned seems like it is realistic, it's not because the current brain trust would have to admit past mistakes to do it, which isn't going to happen. That's another reason why a new leadership group untied to past mistakes is the only way the franchise can move forward. I'd also say that Taylor has to be willing to not meddle in a prospective new GM's vision, since Glen is just as tied to the past botched moves as anyone.
Thinking through this hypothetically, the Clip Joint might be the only team where M. Miller would get even fewer open looks. Randolph is, somehow, an even bigger black hole and worse passer than Jefferson. Miller would never, ever, get open shots off of kicks from him. But he would get some in transition from Baron.
Did you guys see the pimp hat Miller was wearing the other night during his post-game interview? Did he think it was Halloween, or is he the worst, most confused dresser in the NBA?
How about this:
Jefferson + Miller to the Clips for Kaman + Gordon and the return of the #1 pick? I think that's an equal return on Jefferson's value and it allows you to keep a Love/Smith rotation at the 4 while adding a nice young guard to the weakest backcourt in the league.
S-n-P I like the trade, but if Love has Foye protection, doesn't Jefferson have some sort of KG protection.
I suppose in the case of Foye, Love and Jefferson it matters just how much influence McHale stills has and whether anyone is willing in the current FO is ready to forgo Mchales Jefferson/Love combo.
I would do the trade with either Jefferson or Love to get Kaman, Gordon and the pick back. I think getting the pick back is the key though.
ABP: I guess he would have something of a KG protection but I think that's a lot less than what Roy/Mayo gives Foye and Love. I think the sentiment amongst a lot of Wolves fans is that the KG deal had to happen in one form or another. Something had to give. Roy/Mayo were (depending on your point of view with Love) unforced errors.
I'm not a big Al Jefferson guy. I think he's problematic for a number of reasons and while I think the team sold KG for pennies on the dollar, getting Kaman, Gordon and the Marko pick back is a pretty solid investment for a 4 win team going nowhere fast.
I'd make that deal in a heartbeat.
Trading Jefferson would be fine if the right deal came along, but the fact that it allows the Love/Smith rotation to continue at the 4 doesn't seem like a plus to me. Love is not a starter and doesn't look like he'll ever be except on a team he fits perfectly. Smith is much worse - his offensive numbers mean nothing to me since his defense is so atrocious he can't possibly make up for the damage he does. The fact that he's not a good passer (is in fact a ball hog) doesn't add to his charm.
I'm also not a big fan of undersized shooting guards so I'd happily get rid of Foye and certainly wouldn't want to add Gordon.
I should add that the pragmatist in me says the right move with this club is to wait for draft day and then move an expiring Miller deal + expiring Cardinal deal with a bunch of picks for the best assets available. The fan in me wants action immediately. This is getting brutal.
I would try the Clips deal in the off season as well as calling up the Wizards to see what a sign and trade for Butler would cost (I'd unload the Heat pick, 2 late 1sts, Miller, and Cardinal to get him in a S&T). Offer Ariza a full MLE (or more) and hope for the best with the top pick. Ultimately, I think Love can give you 12-14 points a night with comparable defense and more rebounds and passing than Big Al. If you can move him for a perimeter scorer or a do-over on the Marko pick + Kaman and Gordon, I think you do that.
Britt, I know you like AJ's presence in the paint. But what I really think and I hope I don't offend anyone greatly in saying this is that AJ is a selfish player. He is always lookig for his shot before others. I don't see how you can take a guy like Ricky Davis over the coals and spare AJ. I don't think AJ will ever be the center piece of a team. And I don't think he will ever accept this either. There is something seriously wrong with the personalities of this team and the way they play together. And I think if AJ was better about working as a unit and trying to set guys up and taking advantage of double and triple teams by setting up and trusting his team mates we'd see more "chemsitry".
I guess what I'm saying to sum it all up is this: Al Jefferson is not the answer and is a ball hog. Trade him.
Britt,
Let's pat this organization on the back. It's time to go for an NBA record for wins and losses. That would be a fitting end to McHale's Timberwolves legacy. With that in mind, it's time to trade anyone and everyone for assets like expiring contracts and draft picks. Who cares if we only get 50 cents on the dollar? This franchise needs to clean house. We've got 4 number one picks next year. That's 4 new starters!
Pleased to see Jesse G's comment on Al Jefferson. Any of us who has ever played the game on any level knows the experience of playing with a "black hole" player. You win some, you lose some, and even if the ball hog is good, you lose interest in the game as the fluid, balletic, game of athletic chess that, at its best, it can be. AJ is a good one on one player who can beat his man on offense. Basketball is a five on five game where you try to beat your opponent on offense and defense. Big difference.
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