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The Three-Pointer: Reality Checkmate

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Photo copyright 2008 NBAE (Photo by David Sherman/NBAE via Getty Images)

Game # 2, Home Game #2: Minnesota 85, Dallas 95

Game # 3, Road Game #1: Oklahoma City 88, Minnesota 85

Season record: 1-2

1. Untrustworthy

The Wolves had just manufactured their first loss of the season against a very ordinary Dallas Mavericks ballclub and Randy Wittman was at the postgame microphone. Rather than offer any introductory remarks, he simply said, "Questions?" Silence.

The unofficial ritual of these things is that you start off with general topics and gradually hone in on specificities; sort of a priming-the-pump kind of deal, which is why I prefer to wait until the postgame press conference is well under way before unburdening myself of my own curiosities. But as the stillness reached the awkward stage, I figured what the heck and blurted out what was on my mind: What did you think of the way Al [Jefferson] and Miller played on defense tonight?

"Whaatt?!" Witt said, rather incredulously, wheeling in my direction with a perplexed smile on his face while muttering that he didn't even know what I was asking. Well, what I was really asking was why Mike Miller had just covered his man like his shoes were full of cement the first two games of the season, and why Jefferson's vaunted improvement on defensive rotations and overall staunch protection of the paint in the second half of last season now seemed like a mirage, replaced by last year's first-half Al, a second late and an inch short in preventing points.  But rather than leaping forth with such an accusatory blast, I was trying to follow the rules of the postgame dance by moseying into the subject. Even so, the question still wasn't innocuous enough, and in softening the tone and content, all I'd done was make it more vague. 

Put simply, I was apparently coming off as incoherent and a little out of my league. Most of you won't be surprised to hear that I've had some experience in this sort of circumstance, and have learned that if you're painted into a corner with a dunce cap on your head, you may as well seek to "smarten up" by pressing forward and at least getting some information out of the exchange.  So I asked again, a little more pointedly, if the coach felt that Jefferson and Miller had defended Dallas well, while indicating either in words or tone of voice (I honestly can't remember) that I was dubious about the result.

Then Witt gave a solid, somewhat revealing answer. "The problem with tonight's game at both ends of the floor is we don't have that trust factor," he said, adding that that what had helped make them a good team and what they had worked on for four weeks in training camp from a defensive standpoint. "It makes it look like there were a lot of screwups, but it boils down tonight to the trust factor." He explained that some of it was the way people were responding on pick-and-rolls, how people talked, how people reacted. "I don't know if that answers your question or not," he concluded, with a shake of his head.

It seemed to me that Witt was not so subtly defending his two most important offensive players by inferring that you have to know the schemes the team was running to know where the breakdowns were occurring. In the locker room, the ever-personable Ryan Gomes contributed to that impression by saying that on defense Saturday, "sometimes we're trying to go a different route than the route we had planned in our defensive scheme. Sometimes as a player you might think it is the right way, you might want to take a gamble and it costs you. That's what happened tonight."

Being slower afoot, Jefferson and Miller are more likely to be exposed by these breakdowns in communication because they can't adjust as quickly. And perhaps that's why Corey Brewer--who looks like a terror on D, but also gambles a fair bit--didn't play at all in the 4th quarter. In any case, in defending his players from individual blame, the coach ultimately cast aspersions on himself. Throughout training camp, team defense was presented as priorities A through Z by Wittman. Now, in just Game #2, his players were already abandoning the systemic mechanisms and trust in team unity that is the key ingredient in making it work.

To Wittman's credit, he did not oversell the Mavericks as a vastly superior team; on the contrary, he announced it was a game that his ballclub could have won. Yet the Wolves weren't finished buzz-killing the enthusiasm of their suffering faithful this weekend. Sunday night, they traveled to Oklahoma City to play the deservedly winless Thunder (formerly the Seattle Sonics), and again spit the bit, losing 88-85. As blame factors go, lack of trust was passe; this time out, the Wolves were "too relaxed." As in yielding 25 second-chance points, many due to the 19 offensive rebounds the Thunder corralled. There was no concentration, no finding your man and boxing him out, Witt mentioned, revealing that the opponents shot a paltry 25% on their set half-court plays in the first half but were able to boost it to 40% overall due to all the putbacks and second chances they had. 

The Strib's Jerry Zgoda admirably asked if lack of size on the front line had anything to do with it, and Wittman tersely and strongly denied that it did.

So, here we go again. Whatever you want to call it--I've dubbed it Smallball--the Wolves are once again losing games to mediocre at best (Dallas) and bad (Oklahoma City) teams with Al Jefferson as their most rugged defender in the paint.

I've heard all the Mark Madsen jokes, and I'll make no brief for the guy's exalted skills and coordination. But in two losses of the sort that Kevin McHale always describes as potentially defining a season and a mindset if they happen too early and too often, the blame had been laid on a lack of trust and too much relaxation generating a lack of follow-through. I can tell you that Madsen won't gamble foolishly--he'll deliver the scheme with utterly trustworthy fidelity. I can also tell you that there will be nothing relaxed about the way Mad Dog boxes out or conducts his interior rotations. Maybe that's why his plus/minus totals are always surprisingly strong.

When healthy, I'd imagine Jason Collins will be a better option for the pivot. But until then, let's get a center who prioritizes defending the paint and thus has a keen understanding of the way it works via the team-trust dynamic, to be that man in the middle. Ryan Gomes has a huge heart and a fair amount of versatility, but putting Gomes at power forward while Jefferson is at center does neither player any favors--it's corrosive chemistry. Gomes was able to use his quickness to go off for a flurry of buckets on Nick Collison early in the third, but over the course of 48 minutes, the Thunder simply had too much depth and size in its front court. At the very least, can we give Madsen most of Craig Smith's minutes: The Rhino was a combined minus -22 over 35:13 this weekend. And yes, for all you Kevin Love fans, he would be a better option as a starter right now, replacing either Gomes or Brewer. But he's a rookie who is going to make a lot of rookie mistakes--like gambling out of the scheme and losing his man on the box-outs.

Put succinctly, if the Timberwolves are indeed going to make defense a priority and an identity, it would behoove them to play at least one person at the power forward or center spot whose personal identity is oriented primarily toward defense. You might even beat Oklahoma City that way.

2. Spreading the Blame

Of course the littler guys in the backcourt and the offensive dudes are hardly immune from blame for this wretched 1-2 start, in which the Wolves have played two of the six worst teams in the league and an aging ballclub that is clearly in decline. Let's call out a few names and levy specific criticisms.

The most obvious culprit is Randy Foye, of course, the starting point guard who sat for nearly all of crunchtime in the Wolves' opening-night victory and has made Bassy Telfair's shooting stroke seem like George Gervin's with an abominable 3-24 FG performance over the weekend, including Sunday night's 0-10 swan dive into the dumpster.

We all know everyone goes through shooting slumps, so let's be clear that it is not so much that Foye is missing, but when and how he is missing. After Foye's opposite, the Thunder's Russell Westbrook, drove for a layup to put Oklahoma City up by a point late in the game, the teams exchanged misses until there was 1:04 left and the Wolves called timeout. As the point guard, Foye is responsible for ensuring that somebody be in a position to make a good shot.The clearcut first option was Jefferson, who had one of his vintage games, going 11-17 FG for 24 points while garnering 13 rebounds (he also went to the line only twice and registered zero assists, also part of his vintage package). The worst option, given that he was 3-14 FG the previous night and 0-8 thus far in this game, was Foye himself. And yet with a mere 48 seconds on the clock, there was Foye, getting his shot blocked by Jeff Green.

Collison scored on a nifty left-handed runner (Jefferson's defense was good on this play; Collison offense just a little better) to make it 88-85, leading to another timeout with 16 seconds to go. McCants comes in the game for Brewer, teaming with Miller for dual threat trey shooting that could tie the game. Instead, four seconds into the play, Foye exchews both sharpshooters, and the low-post stud Jefferson, in favor of his own layup clank, a shot the stupidity of which was compounded by its high degree of difficulty. Got that? After shooting 0-9 FG and 3-23 FG over the past two games, Foye jacked up a difficult layup (requiring some physical contortion) with his team down by three points, 12 seconds on the clock, with McCants, Miller and Jefferson as spectators. After the game Wittman again repeated that Foye had to play better. Asked if there was any chance Foye would be replaced, with Kevin Ollie turning three straight solid performances and Telfair coming off his three game suspension, Wittman paused and then said, "we don't play again until Wednesday." That's not a ringing endorsement--nor should it be.

Move on to Mike Miller, who seems convinced the Wolves acquired him not to deter double-teams on Jefferson by standing a far distance away from Big Al and setting himself up to rain forth a series of his gloriously accurate long-range jumpers, but instead to utilize his blazing foot speed off the dribble and othewise facilitate ball movement. Through the first three games of the season, Miller has played 108 minutes and launched 26 shots. Of the ten players who have logged time for the Wolves this year, only backup point guard Kevin Ollie has shot less frequently on a per-minute basis.This noble selflessness would be admirable if it was actually helping the team's offense. Alas, it is not. The best way to get an opposing defense to respond to an outside scoring threat and free up space for Jefferson, is to demonstrate that that threat exists. The recalcitrant Miller hasn't done this and the triple teams in the paint on Big Al are growing in frequency.

Then there is Rashad McCants, who once again seems incapable of regulating the flow of his offense, making him very predictable to defend. For most of Sunday's game, McCants preferred to play a modestly supporting role, relatively devoid of histrionics and highlight-reel exploits. Through three periods, he was scoreless, yet was plus +1 in 13:53, while the Wolves in general were up 3, 73-70. Then Miller and Jefferson left the game, leaving Shaddy with Love, Smith, Gomes and Ollie to play with, and a flip switched in his aggression toward the hoop, an intent telegraphed to everyone paying half-attention to the flow of the game. He registered his first points of the game on a jumper with 9:41 to play, bringing the Wolves within a point. For the next three minutes, Minnesota's offense was Shaddy's fiefdom. Five seconds into the shot clock, he drove the lane and missed a layup. The next possession he drove the lane and earned a trip to the foul line, making both. Then he worked his special juju with Craig Smith, feeding the Rhino for a pretty dime. But the man who'd been Mr. Nonchalant was growing increasingly maniacal and tunnel-visioned. There was absolutely no mystery surrounding his plans the next two times down the floor--the Thunder defenders had become Shaddy's personal gauntlet, and after a missed layup and a turnover, Wittman yanked him in favor of Miller until the final seconds. 

The damage wasn't as egregious as Foye's horrible play or Miller's odd aversion to shooting; in part because the Wolves' brass keep a much tighter leash on McCants and his wayward habits. But if Shaddy could figure out a way to make himself an unpredictable second option to Jefferson or Miller, instead of either the only option or the fourth option, it would lessen the soap opera that is his Timberwolves' career to date.

3. Boob Tube 

Because it is so early in the season, and I haven't steeled myself to ignore it or dismiss it, I plead to the folks at FSN North to stop insulting our intelligence. Leading into the postgame show, anchor Marney Gellner proclaimed that "there were a lot of positives" to be gleaned from Sunday's night game. Really? Even genial homer Tom Hanneman noted that if the Wolves were going to be taken at all seriously this season, they had to beat league doormats like the Thunder on the road. That the Wolves instead lost to a team that is by consensus slated to finish either 14th or 15th among the 15 Western Conference teams, does not put fans in the mood to hear that there really were a lot of silver linings in this enormous sack of shit that had just spilled into the eyes of the horrified faithful.

Then we go to sideline reporter Telly Hughes, interviewing Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook, who had a nice night. Hughes asked Westbrook two questions. The first was, how does it feel to get your first-ever win at home as an OKC franchise? The second was, are you getting more comfortable after three games in the NBA?  And that was it, interview over. And thanks to Telly Hughes, we now know that Russell Westbrook is feeling really glad his team won at home for its fans and that he is becoming more comfortable playing in the NBA. Who would have guessed?

If I wasn't waiting to hear Randy Wittman's pearls of wisdom, I would have clicked off the set. And yes, my own time to look stupid and vapid is surely on its way.

76 Reader Comments

SPM (not verified)02:30am
Nov 3
I have to confess that I only watched the 2nd half, but doesn't the T-wolves offense (at least by the starters) terribly predictable? Step 1. Foye dribbles up, yells out a play, then hands off to wing player A on right side of the key Step 2. Wing player A dribbles it back towards the top of the key, then passes to wing player B on the left side of the key Step 3. Wing player B dumps the ball in to Big Al or the Rhino who goes 1 on 1, usually against a double team. I just think that basketball is a game of mismatches, and if you let the defense line up how they want, you play right into their hands. Is there any reason this team can't play pick and roll? Maybe Foye would shoot better than 0-10. Just a thought. -SPM P.S. Anytime you let the Thunder go on a 13-0 run, you deserve to lose. P.P.S. How about the pass from Love to Ollie
highpockets07:25am
Nov 3
I saw that backdoor play coming out of a timeout. Very nice, even if executed on a rookie (Westbrook). At least you have to give Wittman credit for drawing up something decent coming out of a timeout. At the same time, I don't know how often that type of thing actually works in the NBA against veteran players. But you gotta love the fundamentals, baby!! Of course, our brilliant TV analysts never even mentioned it.
Neil O. (not verified)03:15pm
Nov 3
Re: Wolves not using McCants' mug to promote the team: Not sure if you got a chance to check out the new promo shots plastered up all over the walls of the Skyway entrance to Target Center, but there is now a HUGE portrait of Love, McCants and Corey Brewer.
NoOnesAdvocate (not verified)03:49pm
Nov 3
Clearly the wolves have soured on Jefferson, Foye, and Miller. All sarcasm aside, at what point should the team examine AJ's trade value? Never?
pagingstanleyroberts (not verified)08:36pm
Nov 3
In 3 years. He's too affordable, even for a second-best player on a team, to go anywhere unless he holds the team back from getting to a championship level. Not only that, but 3 years would still be in his prime, and that would probably be the time where, if they wanted or needed to trade him, they'd get the best value.
RhinoLove (not verified)10:28am
Nov 4
ASAP...before the rest of the league figures out how one-dimensional he is, and that his awful defense and unwillingness to pass actually negate pretty much everything he gives you in the low post. Don't believe me? Check out his +/- numbers relative to the average guy on the roster. Check out his numbers in Boston. Look at the records of the teams he has played for. Never mind that his game doesn't mesh with the rest of the squad's strengths. ASAP...while, the rest of the league still thinks he is a future all-star with a reasonable contract. Nobody is dumb enough to give us a KG type talent for him (your dunce cap crown is secure KMac), but his value is probably as high as it'll ever get RIGHT NOW.
levi (not verified)02:42pm
Nov 4
As far as other teams figuring out Al Jeff's dimensions, which of the following do you suppose they'd bother to attempt for "due diligence"? A) Watch actual game tape B) Fast forward through a Wolves highlight reel C) Read a Wolves season ticket promo brochure D) Listen to their old buddy and former teammate giving a good phone pitch? I think McHale might have gotten to "C". It came to me this morning that McHale's experience with teammates in the NBA was pretty much limited to players selected by Red Auerbach (and before that, the UofMn). I cannot see Auerbach selecting, say, Latrell Sprewell for example. Thus, McHale really doesn't have a frame of reference for all the self-centered, no defense, ESPN highlight clip seeking, show me the money players of the modern era. What he doesn't realize is that what was "normal" for his Celtics teammates (hard work, defense, sense of team) during his career was already unusual by the time he retired.
levi (not verified)01:06pm
Nov 3
Shouldn't that have been: "Step 3...goes 1 on 2" or maybe 3?
Wim (Belgium) (not verified)04:56am
Nov 3
As always, worth the read! I hadn't considered Mad Dog at all but now that you mention it it seems so obvious. Also, I'm not really one to always put the blame on the coach when things aren't going right. Far too often that happens. Even though it's only three games into the season, I've said before I feel a lot of the problems are the coache's responsability. All I hope for is either he turns it around or we try someone else by december. We got some decent players now, don't let them go to waste...
Peter Weinhold (not verified)06:50am
Nov 3
Britt, You forgot the appearance of McCain supporter Jim "The Analyst" last night, talking about OKC's "spread the wealth" offense. Your "front court as undersized" notion is, of course, the correct one. After Reusse's recent premature rip on Love, here we have the swinging pendulum of Petersen and a lot of folks trying to sell us Love is already the second best player on this club. To use Colin Powell's logic in refuting the "Obama is Muslim" charge...even if he is, so what? The truth--as it stands right now--is that Big Al and Love can't guard anybody with size and skill underneath. Here's a 20 year old kid already with weight problems who lumbers like Sasquatch down the floor, who's touted to be the partner of another guy who after only three games seems to be moderately interested in getting back on defense. Petersen predicts when those two are together, they'll be another Riggs and Murtaugh, true front court Lethal Weapons. Well maybe someday, but not right now. And, not defensively, unless they suddenly become radical fundamentalists and understand the path to playoff and championship glory is not at the offensive end of the court. Even then, they may be too small to do the work necessary. When guys like Nick Collison are out hustling you, that's a bad sign. Only three games, and already the club is in major spin mode. [Sigh] I picked the wrong time to give up alcohol.
levi (not verified)12:49pm
Nov 3
Peter -- it's always a good time to give up alcohol. But you may have to give up other things to make it work for you...like supporting the Wolves But you don't have to give up the NBA. Maybe you could become, gasp, a Celtics fan for awhile. They've got at least one guy you can admire, and maybe Paul Pierce can continue to redeem himself in the eyes of us b-ball purists.
wtd3 (not verified)09:54pm
Nov 3
A Jefferson and Love combo may constitute "smallball," but it would be a different brand of smallball than the Jefferson/Gomes or Love/Smith brands that we've mainly been watching thus far into the season. How many combined minutes have Love and Jefferson played together? It seems to me that they haven't really spent much time on the floor together, which seems curious. I'd like to actually see Jefferson and Love get the chance to play together before declaring that pair a disaster...
levi (not verified)10:25pm
Nov 3
On the 82games site, you can see stats for the top five units: http://www.82games.com/0809/0809MIN2.HTM Then add up the time for the set of players you're looking for , e.g. Love/Jefferson, to get an idea. Certainly less than 20 minutes after three games. Before getting giddy over the fivesome of Foye, McCants, Miller, Love, and Jefferson's excellent +10 over a miniscule 3 minutes, you should know that the generally accepted number of minutes needed to compare stats like shooting percentage, +/- per minute, etc., is 300. That's three hundred minutes.
highpockets07:32am
Nov 3
No more Smallball !!! When Chris Wilcox and Nick Collison are killing you inside, and point guards are flying through the paint for tip dunks, something is very, very wrong. Get somebody out there who can protect the rim. Am I crazy to miss Theo Ratliff, and/or wish Calvin Booth would get healthy??
RhinoLove (not verified)08:10am
Nov 3
Is it the small ball or just poor coaching and a lack of effort. Last I checked, neither Collison nor Wilcox was listed over 6'10. Bodying up on defense goes a long way to overcome a little height deficiency. The way Al is casually plodding around on defense, I really don't see any way he could be guarding any of the leagues fours that possess a little quickness and some shooting range. A big center would help to protect the rim, but this horseshit on the ball defense is the real problem.
pagingstanleyroberts (not verified)09:09am
Nov 3
I think it's lack of effort and a need for different strategy. The Wolves wanted to slow the tempo; it's obvious the Thunder are more athletic. If that's the case, why not sell out and have everyone crashing the defensive boards? If there's one thing that Miller, a 6-8 guard, and Foye, a guy who played power forward at times in college, should be able to do, it's outrebound the guy they're guarding.
Andy G (not verified)08:10am
Nov 3
Wow, that's a bad loss. ESPN has a SportsNation poll asking which team will win more games, between the Wolves and Thunder. Ouch. Most people expected the interior defense to struggle, but I thought we'd be a smooth offensive team. From what I've seen, which is two of the games and listened to the other, Wittman and Foye can take the brunt of the blame, and a little needs to go to Miller and Jefferson. Miller passes too much and Jefferson doesn't pass at all. I read a report over the weekend, Marc Stein's, I think, that Mike Miller could get traded if the Wolves start slow. Does anyone know anything about that? Telfair's suspension might've been a blessing in disguise, for him. It gave Foye the keys to the offense, and he couldn't have done a worse job with them. Bassy could play just like he did last year--solid, but not even close to spectacular--and be the much better option at point guard. Having seen Foye a couple times, I thought he looked quicker/more explosive than last year, but it's done nothing to help his court sense. I'd really enjoy seeing a Telfair-Foye backcourt on Wednesday. Foye needs less to think about and more catch and shoot opportunities. None of this will matter much if we don't add some size to the front line. We're consistently trotting out 4-5 combos that have a 6'10" or 6'8" center and 6'6" or 6'7" power forward. It's a joke, and needs to be addressed really soon.
RhinoLove (not verified)08:19am
Nov 3
When I heard about the trade my initial thought, was...this makes no sense unless we pull off an in season trade for Miller to a desperate contender for a pick and a prospect. My love of the Wolves aside, I really didn't buy that we were going to be a drastically improved team this year. The Wolves seem to be promoting Miller as one of the franchise cornerstones, but my personal opinion is that holding a veteran shooting specialist is a poor allocation of resources for a team that is clearly still in the early stages of a rebuilding process. I think we'll get some bids as the season progresses, and we'd be wise to take one.
Britt Robson08:44am
Nov 3
Well, although I rarely indulge in this kind of thing, I can tell you that I heard some fairly serious buzz about Miller going to the Lakers for Lamar Odom this summer, and that he apparently was hesitating on moving his family here in the off-season as a result. But I also think it is way too premature to think about scrambling the ballclub yet. I'm curious to see their upside, a game where they play well, and utilize their personnel in a manner that maximizes their strengths and obscures their weaknesses as a team. Clueless is different than talentless.
pagingstanleyroberts (not verified)09:22am
Nov 3
Trading Miller for Odom would be disastrous for this year. If they got a pick from a team, then it would be worth trading him, but not for Odom. I don't think he'd be happy here; he'd be redundant with Brewer, Carney (lanky guys who aren't great perimeter shooters), Smith, Gomes, and Love (frontcourt tweeners); his contract's up after this year, which would lead to him trying to "get his" every night with no regard for team development; and the Lakers don't have a lot of picks to offer and probably will be drafting late for the forseeable future. I don't think they'll trade him, but if they did, I'd rather have it be to a team like Toronto or Orlando, who could offer a potentially earlier pick and don't have as bright of a future as the Lakers. The point is that they don't need to trade with the Lakers if they want to trade Miller, and if they did deal him to LA, the next time we'd need to be interested in this team would involve ping-pong balls.
RhinoLove (not verified)09:42am
Nov 3
First I've heard of the Miller for Odom deal, but we should have done that in a minute. Odom wouldn't stay here, but he is undoubtedly a better trading chip than Miller. A lot of teams would like to have Miller, every team would like to have Odom. That is how the smart teams think, two steps ahead. You get better by acquiring guys with upside and guys/contracts that other teams want. Build for the future with an eye towards trade flexibility. 20 years into this franchise you think maybe we'd have learned this by now.
pagingstanleyroberts (not verified)11:23am
Nov 3
He's a more talented and more productive player, but he's not undoubtedly a better trading chip. For the sake of this season, Odom would be a more talented version of Antoine Walker. He wouldn't be nearly as willing as Miller to fit within the team's rebuilding process, which could lead to losses. He would either "get his numbers" or sulk. Miller might not be playing well, but he is playing within the team system. Second, after what happened with Ratliff last year, no matter how talented Odom is, teams will be waiting for the Wolves to cut him, especially if he starts to sulk. Third, while the Wolves have two years within which they could trade Miller, they only have one to trade Odom. More time on the contract leads to better offers.
levi (not verified)12:07pm
Nov 3
Actually, a tandem of Lamar Odom and Al Jefferson at this stage of their careers *might* be very intriguing. I think Odom is in a pretty toxic spot for him. He couldn't make a go of it in Laker Land, and probably never will. His normal style / tendencies might complement AJ nicely. One thing to remember about the NBA, though, is that very few "star" players change their games much, so interior defense would likely continue to suck. I just don't see why the Lakers would trade Odom for Miller, seems to me like they've already got a pretty good player at the "2/3", on the other hand, I think he'd be great in the Laker's triangle-based offense. We can use this site to see if the deal fits the NBA's Collective Bargaining Agreement: http://www.realgm.com/src_tradechecker To make the deal work, the Wolves also have to give up someone else in order to match Odom's salary -- Jason Collins fits the bill, both in terms of salary and being someone that the Lakers might want as "insurance" for Bynum. We could flatter Collins and suggest that maybe he's the player the Lakers really want (and Odom the one the really DON'T want) and that Miller is the "salary filler" -- although one that they can probably easily trade.
levi (not verified)01:35pm
Nov 3
I did forget that Kobe Bryant can opt out after this season, so the Lakers *might* be interested in Miller as a "failsafe" -- but that's a lot of salary for an "understudy". Pundit Eric Pincus ruled out such a trade: http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=10254
Shogun (not verified)11:14am
Nov 3
I understand that Sean Williams of the NJ Nets is available. I think he'd be the kind of center we need: long, athletic, defensive-minded, and relatively cheap. He has baggage (positive drug tests for marijuana), but as far as I know, he hasn't been a troublemaker in New Jersey and his pot smoking habit makes him fit in with half of the other players in the NBA. His skill set reminds me of a young Marcus Camby. He would provide defense and rebounding right now, and if he develops, he could become a league average or better center in a few years. I'd try to trade a package of Carney and one of our upcoming first round picks (one of the lower ones) or Miller for Williams. He would be a nice pice in our rebuilding project, and I would make him a higher priority than Odom.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)08:42am
Nov 3
I think the players know the team's personnel better than the coaching and front office. Can someone please explain to me how this team is going to win with defense with guys like Miller, Jefferson, Love, McCants, and Foye getting large chunks of minutes? The problem answers itself. This is not a defensively-minded team and the folks that put it together are demanding things out of it that simply aren't there. I know the college game doesn't translate completely to the pros, but Memphis should be a shining example for this squad. If you're going to play small ball, you need to run an offense and tempo that match your personnel. Even if you don't have the personnel to run a dribble-drive motion you have offensive-minded players that can get out and run and move quickly. You have 3 guys who can really stroke the 3. You have 2 guys who can operate in the paint. Defense isn't the problem with this club. It's not the reason why they're losing to OKC and Dallas. They shot under 40% against Dallas. They don't have a real point. Their OE is below 100 while their DE is 10 points under what it was last year. Memphis is a further example because of their gambling defense. If your offense is good enough, you need to gamble for turnovers and show the ability to play good defense for short periods of time. If you want a defensive minded squad, then draft and trade for players that fit that bill. Complaining about defense with this squad is like complaining that the Twins don't hit enough home runs. There's a reason for that: they weren't built for that sort of thing. A Bassy, McCants, Brewer, Love, Jefferson starting 5 can't come quickly enough. BTW: When do the "trade Miller" chants start? I'm not starting it now, but you can bet there will be a push for this sort of thing when this team continues to lose by racking up a sub-100 OE and a 103-105 DE in hopes that they can be the Spurs rather than the Suns.
Britt Robson09:13am
Nov 3
I'll bite on this argument. The starting five you favor is death for the team's best player, With both Bassy and Brewer out on the floor, the triple teams will be SOP against Jefferson in any half-court sets. And a gambling-oriented, run and gun game is not a tempo that Jefferson can play. Meanwhile, at the other end, that team gets pick and rolled to death, or at least whenever the larger point guard feeding into the larger big men isn't sufficient. That doesn't mean you aren't on the right track proclaiming that this team isn't utilizing their talent appropriately, especially when it comes to the run and gun. I maintain that the starting lineup you posit would be much more effective as a second unit coming off the bench, with the Rhino or Mad Dog subbed in for Jefferson. I also think even Randy Foye can be the point guard in half court sets that emphasize spacing and inside-outside ball movement via drive-and-kick and Foye-Jefferson-Gomes-Miller pass patterns, with Collins down low to clean up the garbage.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)09:35am
Nov 3
Perhaps we can agree that the rotations currently being run out just don't seem to match up with what the other squad is doing. As far as the up-tempo offense goes, I think they are in between a rock and a hard place with Jefferson being their building block. Either you surround him with a defensive center and 2 outstanding shooting guards + Brewer or you play small ball with efficient offense and hope for the best on defense. The coaching staff seems to want to have it both ways with their personnel. I just think that between Witt and Foye, the Randy problem on this squad is going to result in yet another lost year where we'll all be sitting around on draft day wondering which point guard the new head coach is going to draft. If Foye could understand the importance of inside-out ball movement with this personnel set, I think he'd have a shot. However, I just don't think it's in his DNA. His best attribute as a player has been his outside spot up shooting. He's one of the guys that should be receiving the kick out. He's also shown nothing in terms of being able to drive and dish. I can't believe I'm watching an NBA point leave his feet as much as Foye does with no clear idea as to what he will do in the air. As for my preferred starting 5, I think it would work in a spaced dribble-drive set. Brewer will never, ever, ever be double teamed and he has shown some encouraging flashes of being able to put the ball on the floor in either a p-n-r or a drive to the rim. Bassy should be doing nothing but dribble-drive anyway. Coaching-wise, I'm simply baffled that inside-out and high-low aren't the focus of what they are trying to do. It's nuts. I don't think I've seen one time where Miller has entered the ball to Jefferson and then kicked it back out once the defense collapsed. This is one of the most basic plays in basketball and I don't think I've seen it once.
Britt Robson09:54am
Nov 3
S+P-- We agree on plenty here, especially in terms of what is not being done. I have less faith in Brewer and Bassy being able to get anything unless it is a breakaway situation, and have a little more faith in Foye's ability to eventually settle down and execute the basics. But the inside-outside game in the half-court and any acknowledgement that there is a decent core of run-and-gunners to be utilized is something that we both heartily endorse, and don't see, from this team thus far.
A.K. Agikamik (not verified)11:02am
Nov 3
SnP - You're comment about Foye in the air is right on the money. Half a dozen times last night he went airborne with no idea where or to whom the ball was headed. It drove me nuts! Each time he was too far from the bucket for a "runner" to be an option and it was obvious he had no clear options in mind. A driving point guard should have either his own high percentage shot and a pass option in mind or two pass options in mind as he begins his drive. Foye seems a long way from figuring this out. Here's a handy comparison: Foye is to T-Jack as Ollie is to Gus Ferotte or would it be Foye is to Ollie as T-Jack is to Gus You get the idea. And don't get me started on Witt is to Chilly...
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)11:09am
Nov 3
I like the Purple analogies. I'm not a fan of the Vikes but I do remember Daunte Culpepper saying he was a Jedi before flaming out never to be seen again. I get the feeling that Foye has said too much by 1/2 about being a point that he simply can't be walked back against the position he's likely taken in the locker room, 4th Quarter Foye, and Roy/Foye. By both his own words and the front office's decisions, he's been locked in pretty heavily at a position I'm sure some folks in the organization knew he wasn't up to as early as last year (maybe before).
antonymous (not verified)11:51am
Nov 3
I don't want to step into a minefield here, but while we've all seen poor play from Randy Foye the past couple of nights, I've also noticed his willingness to step out of his comfort zone. Against Dallas, he might have scored all of his points going to his *left* and finishing at the hoop (sorry, I can't remember precise details). Yeah, he went 3-for-24 this weekend and played terrible, I know. Also, trading Mike Miller right now is accepting defeat for our front office (and would reveal their predraft love for Love). I also happen to think Mike is one of our few starting-caliber players, and I certainly wouldn't trade him for a Lamar Odom rental. Last year one of our problems was size in the backcourt with guys like Foye, Bassy, and McCants - now we add a big shooter like Miller and he's the problem? Puhleeze!
A.K. Agikamik (not verified)12:13pm
Nov 3
Antonymous - This is not intended as a rant on your post at all - more of a general rant. The idea that a move right now is "accepting defeat" is mentioned at least three times in this thread as an argument against a certain potential change (trade Miller, dump Witt, move Foye off the point). Part of making meaningful change most often involves some amount of white-flag-raising or mistake-admitting. Those things in and of themselves do not constitute a reason for against a certain move or decision. Psychology always figures into decision making, but hopefully those in charge consider and make their decisions on the relative merits.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)12:44pm
Nov 3
I've always viewed it as cutting their losses as quickly as possible following the KG trade. The further they get away from that trade the harder it becomes to convince fans that they're simply bouncing back from rock bottom. Pragmatically speaking, it's a matter of managing limited assets and maximizing their potential. Let's say that behind the scenes a decision has been made or an opinion has been formed about Foye. What is the worse crime: holding out hope that he can become something that he's not or cutting one's losses and walking away from the table with as many chips as possible. I get that they're pretty far in on Foye. From marketing to the locker room to draft picks to....well, they bit pretty hard. Even if you subscribe to the idea that he could work out, Foye was drafted to fill a need on a team that no longer exists. Davis, Blount, KG, Hassel...sorry, the white flag has already been hoisted on that mess. This team has a limited amount of resources available to it thanks to the KG trade. 4 possible 1st rounders, a few somewhat tradeable assets, some out-of-whack contracts, and Mike Miller. This is it. They traded a once-in-a-lifetime talent for what ended up to be these assets. Once they blow through the draft next year, they're locked in. That's the team you're going to be looking at in the Al Jefferson era. Let's set aside the white flag/PR business and look at this in strictly pragmatic terms. Does this team have an NBA starting point? Does this team have a coach who can develop players, run quality rotations, and win more than 1 out of every 3 games? I'm of the opinion that we knew the answers to these questions last November. Come next November we'll either be asking the same questions or wondering how the new coach and PG will work out. For some reason, this team always seems to get out in front of itself when it comes to matters of personnel and selling tickets. 4th Quarter Foye works well for selling tickets in a down year (I suppose), but it has been a disastrous personnel decision. This team needs to figure out a few things before it goes any further. What type of players are they going to surround Jefferson with? Are they going to focus on efficient up tempo small ball or will they focus on hoping for a 2nd dominant scorer to mix with defensive-minded role players? Foye or Shaddy? Can they make the playoffs before Mike Miller becomes an off-the-bench 3 point specialist? Can they make the playoffs with Miller's defense on the wing? This team is sending all sorts of mixed messages. They want to be a defensive minded team yet they run out a small ball lineup with guys who don't defend well. They want to have an efficient small ball lineup but they run sets that don't match the personnel. It goes on and on. They need to pick a direction and go with it....from coaching to offense to defense to draft picks and so on and so forth. Personally, and for what it's worth, I think they go the offensive/small-ball route. Love and Jefferson are about as good as you can hope for in the front court and with a draft that will likely include Ricky Rubio, Brandon Jennings, Demar Derozan, Tyreke Evans, and Stephen Curry, the Wolves should be able to find a guard to replace Foye or allow Bassy to start. I don't know about a trade during the year, but Miller becomes an even more valuable trading chip with an expiring contract. Unless they get an offer they can't refuse, he should stay here until the draft...where he could be paired with (hopefully) multiple picks in an attempt to get the player the team wants the most.
Andy G (not verified)02:58pm
Nov 3
Tons of mixed messages. There is no offensive identity to speak of, and the only defensive identity is that every relevant player not-named Gomes, Telfair or Brewer is a below average or worse one-on-one defender. Last year was experimental, to evaluate the talent brought in for KG: Jefferson was a great scorer, solid offensive rebounder, but bad interior defender. Unless you count Jason Collins, which is hard to do, given golf cart injuries and his overall irrelevance for the past five seasons, we didn't do anything to address that problem. I like the idea being tossed around of a trade to NJ for Sean Williams. He'd give us some much needed athleticism up front. Foye sucked at point guard. To fix that problem, we cemented his spot at the point--way before the season even began. For now, we should commit 35-40 minutes per game to Telfair and give him a real opportunity to play point guard for a decent team. Either he makes the most of it, or we draft accordingly. Foye deserves a chance to play, though. Whether that means a mix of 10 point guard minutes and 20 off-guard minutes, or something else, he should see the floor. He had a pretty good rookie year and looks to have his bounce back, after a serious injury. Yeah, he's undersized for a two, but that's not as serious of a problem as being undersized for a four or five--a problem shared by about six current Wolves. Our best player was a power forward. With the third pick in the draft, we took a guard to complement him-----then traded that pick for a power forward. I'm not as upset about this now as I was on draft night--Love has shown plenty to like, and Mayo isn't a lock for greatness...but it sure would be easy to say farewell to McCants, Foye, or both and just commit to Mayo-Jefferson. Plus, Mayo looks to me like the kind of guard that will prefer a slower tempo. He's stronger than he is fast, and his game is gearted more toward jumpshots than it is high-flying finishes at the rim. As an alternative to Mayo, I'd bet money that LAC would've given us our future first rounder back for a pick-swap. Again, Eric Gordon or Jarryd Bayless might not become great--but probably better than our current guards and we're really going to feel a hit if we end up giving LAC a top-notch pick in 2012...I don't want to even joke about this, but imagine if that's the year we strike lottery gold, only to hand it over to Donald Sterling & Co. (Thanks to Canis Hoopus for that draft pick info...that's a good link with all of the details of each traded pick). This could be way off, but I'm guessing that it makes it difficult to make serious commitments (and goodbyes) to many of our rotation players, when the head coach's job is in jeopardy. McHale & Hoiberg might think that Foye could learn to play point in a different coach's system. Hard to say. In any case, I hope that some of the Wolves rotation players show enough promise to create trade value. This thing is probably going to get shaken up, perhaps sooner than later, due to the tension between up-tempo/slow-down and the point guard/combo guard/off guard stuff. It seems like a poor mix of talents and we definitely need help on defense. Mike D'Antoni is in New York and I'm not sure there's another coach who can win games with consistently bad defense. If Al Jeff is our guy, than we'd better tighten up the one-on-one perimeter D, and add a shot-blocking/rebounding presence to round a trio with Jefferson and Love. Rhino's minutes might have to go, and Gomes should never again see the 4-spot.
Britt Robson03:24pm
Nov 3
It's sobering to see many of the commenters I deeply respect calling for fire-drill measures after 3 games. You guys all may be right, but I think you've got to stick with the plan longer than the first week of the season. The biggest blow to the status quo right now is Foye's horrible start. Longtime readers know I've never particularly been a hardy Foye partisan, especially if he's playing the point, but I also don't think you can toss the keys of the offense to Bassy or Ollie, both of whom are still more limited in terms of how far they can take this club than is Foye, in my opinion. Let's see what happens when Foye's confidence-bending slump abates, when Collins gets healthy and Smallball gets so embarrassing that it is taken off the table (at least the Jefferson-Gomes version). Let's see what happens when the team shakes out a reliable rotation, when Mike Miller realizes shooting rather than passing is his primary virtue on this or any other team, and when Jefferson finally gets some major heat for mailing in ballgames at one end of the court. There's plenty of drama left with this roster without tsunami-like upheavals 3 games in. If those type of changes were necessary, the time to have made them was the off-season. So let's all take a breath. I didn't think this team was in sniffing distance of playoff contention, and they're not going to be. Demoting or unloading Foye, firing Wittman, trading Miller, etc., rearranges the proverbial deck chairs on the Titanic while scratching and denting them in the process.
Andy G (not verified)04:23pm
Nov 3
I've gotten ahead of myself, here, but it's frustrating to see that the two big issues for the season--post defense and Foye as a PG--look no better than last year. Add to that the BS that you read from McHale & Wittman about how small the league has gotten, and it makes it more frustrating. Then, there are quotes from Foye about how being a point guard is about being vocal...and that's pretty much it. Just seems like they're pretty arrogant, or ignorant about major basketball issues and it's killing our progress.
stop-n-pop (not verified)04:51pm
Nov 3
I think the frustrating thing for me is that the coaching and point questions are the same issues that were staring this club in the face last October. It's like watching a recovering addict friend hit the bottle again. You know it doesn't work for them. They know it doesn't work. Everybody around knows it doesn't work, yet there's always that group of friends that holds out hope that this time will be different. These are going to be the same issues next October...whether both Randys survive the year or we're talking about the new PG draft pick and the new coach. Meanwhile, we fans are left sitting around watching a product with not as clear as a direction as it should have with assets like Miller slowly looking more and more like luxuries the team can't afford. I still think this team will win 36 games this year. I've said all along I believe Bassy will be the starting point and that he's 3--4% on his jumper away from being what a starting point should be. They are losing close games while playing terrible on the offensive end. However, as far as the team taking that next step...it's not going to happen with Foye at the point or Witt at the head of the bench. This was obvious at the start of last season and it's just as obvious now. This is Witt's 5th year at the head of the bench in the NBA. He's 97-194. Foye is a 25 year old point who came from a gimmicky 3 (sometimes 4) guard college offense and who is trying to learn the point at the highest level possible. This team is finally making some nice moves in the front office. There's finally a culture change where McHale isn't the only voice in town. There's finally something of a plan to move forward and it's going to run into bad coaching and zero point play. Witt may be a great motivator and I think he did a good job last year of having a team that didn't quit, but ultimately he's a Bobby Knight guy in the NBA....if that makes sense.
Boognish (not verified)02:39pm
Nov 4
Such negativity. And after only 3 games. Excuse me, fellas, if I wait for a few more games before I give up all hope and throw all of our players under the bus. Are some of you seriously wanting to trade away Miller and Foye already? Unbelievable. Both guys have been scoring for as long as they've been playing basketball, and they'll break out of this slump eventually. What I have liked seeing is that Foye leads the team in assists every night, as our PG should. I just wish we had a coach who could work with players and teach them, instead of chewing their asses and benching them every time they make a mistake. I'm worried that Wittless is going to absolutely ruin these young, talented players, before we can get a real head coach in here to teach them. P.S. for Britt: I really like reading your blog, but man can we get a little positivity to mix in with the doom and gloom? I hear all the whining I can stand from the message board goofs; it would be great if you could point out a few positives during the course of your articles. We knew this team wasn't going to be great, and we knew we were going to lose more games than we won. Yet people are here crying for wholesale changes after playing our 3rd game.
Britt Robson05:06pm
Nov 4
Boog-- You should probably read my trey from the Sacramento game, where I was fairly upbeat about the Wolves beating a team that is perhaps the league's least talented outfit in its home opener. If you saw the Dallas and OKC games, you know that neither of Minnesota's opponents played very well--the Wolves handed them victories. Losing to Dallas signals that this is not a playoff team (I regard Dallas as at-best on the playoff bubble this year) and losing to the Thunder indicates that we could have a reprise of last year's 22-60. I don't know if that will happen, and any signs of positivity that create wins or generate honest enthusiasm within me will be faithfully reported. But aside from Love and Ollie, nobody on this squad is off to what I would consider a good start. I can't worry about being overly positive or negative; I'm too busy trying to honestly convey my impressions.
A.K. Agikamik (not verified)09:28am
Nov 3
I will read and comment later, but wanted to post the following link for out-of-market Wolves fans. NBA now offers online live game access for thentire season for $84.95 - that's half the League Pass TV price and does not require fancy cable or Dish. All you need is a broadband connection. This service is free thru 11/11 and the deal is good until then - price bumps to $99.95 thereafter. http://www.nba.com/leaguepass/online.html My only requirement if you do this is that your contribution to this blog get even better than it already is. Happy viewing - AK
doubleplusgood (not verified)10:05am
Nov 3
Britt, Wondering what your thoughts were on Rodney Carney's limited time on the floor? He stuck a couple of 12 footers and had a 3 pt play in 9 minutes on the court and then never saw any action after that. From everything I've read about him, they mention his defense and athletic ability. He's stronger than Brewer. I know it's early in the season and I'm not saying Brewer shouldn't get burn, but couldn't Wittman have played him in place of Miller or Brewer for a few more minutes last night and start to see what you have given that the other two guys were less than steller in their combined 63 minutes on the court? Not saying Carney's the answer, but if he can consistently hit an open jumper & play above average D (two things no player on this squad is able to combine), shouldn't he merit more PT? Your thoughts?
antonymous (not verified)11:37am
Nov 3
Unfortunately, one of the knocks on Carney is his consistency. He can certainly go off for a few points once in awhile, but asking for it on a regular basis just doesn't get results with him. He's only a shade worse on D than Brewer, but also doesn't have that disruptive style of play which leads to steals, rebounds and other opportunities. I think he'll continue to see minutes and act as an insurance policy at our SF position.
Britt Robson02:55pm
Nov 3
I don't see how Carney warrants steady minutes unless you're fairly sure he is going to be better than the other candidates at the swingman position. Remember all the time accorded Kirk Snyder last season? How did that benefit the development of this ballclub? As everyone notes, Carney seems to be a Brewer doppelganger in many respects. The franchise invested a lottery pick in Brewer. Carney came over from Philly as a means for that team to clear cap space. If you retard Brewer's development for the sake of finding out about Carney, you better have a dividend coming at the end of the process. And that's a risk I'm not sure the Wolves want to take right now. None of this is a reflection on the actual talent or upside of Carney, of course. There are guys who fall through the cracks all the time, with Snyder, who wasn't half-bad, being a handy example. There are also guys who get rescued, like Boris Diaw by Phoenix, or Roger Mason recently by the Spurs (ditto Udoka). I don't know what Carney can do. I've been alternately intrigued and unimpressed the two times I've seen somewhat extended minutes for the guy in a Wolves uniform.
Game 5 (not verified)10:33am
Nov 3
Britt – So much media attention (national, local, and in this blog space) gets focused on individual NBA players. Every preseason piece has dealt with Brewer’s suspect offense, Big Al’s lone star status, Foye’s make-or-break year at the point, the ability to spread the floor with Miller, and whether or not Love is athletic enough to enjoy the same success he’s had at other levels of play. You know the drill. Always cited, too, is the youth on this squad. These points (as well as plenty of shots at McHale’s eye for talent and chemistry) are made by lazy journalists who only spend enough time to point out the obvious. I would submit that your player analysis goes beyond the obvious, and that’s why I come back to read your articles. Therefore, I request you spend some time thinking and writing about our coach that wins at a 33% clip. He loses two out of every three games. This has remained true over nearly 300 games coached (a more than adequate sample size). And what’s his record so far this year, by the way? Lazy journalists will point out that he’s had bad individual players on the teams he’s coached. Or bad GMs. I would submit that his 2nd year in CLE, for instance, he had a decent team worthy of finishing better than 32-50, and 6th place in the Central in a super weak Eastern Conference. Here’s what I’m trying to say, for all the doubters of McHale and the youth on this team, let’s take a more than casual look at our coaching staff, and their track record for developing players. The defense played by Jefferson, Gomes, and McCants has not improved markedly, or at all, since Wittman began coaching. Nor has the point guard play of Foye. And every article I read pins those shortcomings on the players (or, on McHale for signing them in the first place.) I’m very happy that the discussion on this page has started to question things like: why are we starting a small-ball lineup, and then only running half-court sets? But I think we ought to delve deeper. Specifically, whether these players are receiving the proper instruction from the coach. Whether they are being properly developed into NBA players. Into all they can be. All I have to go on is a .332 win pct.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)10:43am
Nov 3
Here, here about the coaching. If you go to the team's Basketball Reference page, you are greeted by this: Wittman (1-2), Wittman (22-60), Wittman (12-30), Casey (20-20), Casey (33-49). John Hollinger summed up the Casey firing perfectly in real-time: "Can anyone remember the last time a coach took a team that was expected to be lottery-bound, had them at .500 and in line for a playoff spot at the halfway point of the season in a very tough conference, and got fired anyway?" Over at Hoopus I went through whether or not the team improved during the course of the season last year: http://www.canishoopus.com/2008/4/23/415328/did-they-improve It's pretty hard to make the case that they did. They ended the season with a starter back in the lineup and with more wins against inferior competition while absolutely falling apart on defense. During the Dallas game the Mavs' announcers talked about how Gerald Green is now Casey's project and that he is in charge of the team's defense. If the defensive/player development route is what this team wants to do, it's pretty frustrating to think that the coach who should be doing the job is a couple hundred miles down I-35. Here's what I wrote at the end of last year: http://www.canishoopus.com/2008/4/23/415328/did-they-improve "If there is to be any consequences for this year's play (and there won't be) it would be that team development simply did not happen. Player development may have gone forward with career years for Jefferson, Gomes, and McCants, but as a team, the Wolves were running on a treadmill. They lack an identity, an offensive or defensive system, the identification of a clear type of player skill set to fill out their personnel needs, and so on and so forth...you know, front office and coaching stuff. As a team, the Wolves most certainly did not improve throughout the year. Foye simply came back and played well enough for them to knock off a few more wins against the likes of the Clips and Grizz. Pace, DPace, FTM/FTA, DFTM/DFTA, eFG%, DeFG%...the list goes on and on; the Wolves had a series of important numbers that remained consistent throughout the year. Outside of a slight uptick in eFG% after the ASB (which can be tied to a single player more than actual team play), they were the same team they were at the beginning of the year + Foye. They had the same issues, played the same style, had the same deficiencies, and so on and so forth. I'm not sure if you can call this improvement." ...if this team really is going to rebuild and be a post-KG franchise, it needs to make 2 more significant changes and they both involve Randys.
RhinoLove (not verified)11:21am
Nov 3
Totally agree. But getting rid of the Randy's is an open admission of two wasted years and a horribly botched draft night. I am fighting back vomit when I think that we could be trotting out a starting five that includes Roy, Granger, and KG.
Britt Robson02:48pm
Nov 3
The VP of Personnel has already stated he views this as a 40-win ballclub, a mark Wittman properly tried to ratchet back to about 32 (by comparing it to Portland of two years ago), and I believe if the coach can get 32-35 wins out of this ballclub and develop the likes of Foye, McCants, Jefferson's D, Love, Brewer, etc., he deserves to keep going. Now, do I believe that Randy Wittman has demonstrated he is a good coach? No, I don't. Will my criticism of him become more detailed and sharpened if the team continues on the course it has set thus far this season? Yes. But going hammer and tong on the coach after three games seems a little harsh. I know it's a cliche, but Randy Wittman isn't the point guard who has missed 21 of his last 24 shots while sabotaging the offense. In fact he's the guy who sat Foye most of the 4th quarter in the opener, a decision that in retrospect seems pretty smart. Firing Wittman during the first month of the season is very very unlikely. It is nearly as unlikely that Wittman will dramatically depart from whatever strategy he has concocted for the upcoming season. If it turns out to be a collossal failure, well, I haven't seen a reluctance to get rid of coaches on the part of this management team.
Andy G (not verified)10:44am
Nov 3
One idea that we could steal from Nellie in GS, for matchups like SA on Wednesday, as well as future matchups against Utah and NOLA: stick Brewer on the point guard. He can't play point on offense, like Stephen Jackson has been doing, but I like the idea of Corey guarding the stud point guards in the West, whose teams lack dominant wing players. The Ginobili-less Spurs have Bruce Bowen and Michael Finley--(at least three years removed from his more athletic days)--at the 2 and 3 spot. We could easily stick Foye or Telfair on Bowen and leave Gomes or Miller on Finley. Same for NOLA, although Peja's size could make it tough at times, to get away with. But, Monta-less GS took NOLA to the final minute with S-Jack playing 48 minutes of point guard duty. I think Brewer defends penetrators exceptionally well, and would be more valuable against those teams, if he checks their All-Star floor generals. I'd be impressed (and very surprised) if Wittman chooses this strategy on Wednesday. It's worth a try. SA should be beatable, without Manu. If Brew can contain Parker, we'll only have to keep Duncan from going off for 50. I'd say we at least have a 50% chance of doing that.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)11:06am
Nov 3
I think the Blazers did something similar by putting Batum on Parker.
Britt Robson02:37pm
Nov 3
Solid idea. They used to do it with Hassell, remember? Bottom line, some innovation will be required vs. San Antonio after what we've seen against Sac/Dall/OKC.
levi (not verified)01:36pm
Nov 4
Of course *I* remember assigning Trenton to defend some of the point guards. Putting him on Tony Parker was a huge mismatch for Hassell and I really felt sorry for him, as defending the point guard is a completely different kettle of fish and no way did Trenton have the speed to match Tony's. Perhaps the alternatives were worse, but IMHO it wasn't such a good strategy. And I think that Brewer would get completely torched by Parker, as well as pick up a lot fouls very quickly. Corey isn't quick enough and he's way too uncoordinated and gangly, not to mention his tendencies to bite on fakes. Now, I don't know if he has experience defending PGs, but I doubt it. Just because a guy has a reputation as a defender shouldn't mean that you should plug him into every situation. But derned if I know how the Wolves should handle Parker with the current roster.
Britt Robson02:11pm
Nov 4
Levi-- The alternative was Sam Cassell, who was being guarded by Bowen, so rather than try to switch on the fly (something that for some reason coaches and players dislike quite a bit), they threw Hassell on Parker. I don't remember it being as much of a train wreck as you do, but I do acknowledge that Parker's improvement has been dramatic over the past 3-4 years.
Andy G (not verified)02:24pm
Nov 4
I don't remember the Hassell-Parker matchup, but I've seen enough Brewer to know that he could handle Tony Parker pretty easily. In fact, since getting outmuscled has been his only defensive problem to speak of, he might be an even better point guard defender than he against wings. Anyway, I doubt we'll do it--Witt will probably stick Foye on him, then sub Bassy in when Foye can't stay in front of him. You'd hate to get too creative out there, when you're working with a powerhouse like we've got.
pagingstanleyroberts (not verified)04:33pm
Nov 4
Obviously, the matchup would favor the Spurs, but not as much as Foye on Parker favors them. Two years ago, we put Ricky Davis on Steve Nash when we halted the Suns' long winning streak, and I don't think it's a stretch to assume that Brewer's a better defender than Pretty Ricky. With a guy like Parker, it's as important to have a good guy playing help D (the guy guarding the screener) as it is to have a good on the ball defender. Whoever guards Parker needs to worry about getting around screens as much as he does staying in front of Parker.
drza44 (not verified)11:39am
Nov 5
I agree that Hassell was overmatched trying to guard quick point guards, and that it wasn't a good role for him. For Brewer, though, it might be a different animal. I'm not sure on that, but it is worth checking out. Brewer could have trouble with the savvy of NBA point guards, and offenses built to get them open off of screens and such. But on the college level, we absolutely saw Brewer guarding some of the quickest point guards in the country and giving them fits (including Mike Conley, who was a top-5 draft pick). So I think Brewer has the tools to keep up with the fast guys, it's just a question of whether those tools are adaptable enough for the high level PGs in the NBA.
Britt Robson12:41pm
Nov 5
drza44-- Important distinctions on the Hassell/Parker matchup: It was still early in Parker's career and hand-checks--Hassell's best friend--were still legal. Both made a big difference, although I wouldn't claim Trenton did a good job on Parker--just a hell of a lot better than Cassell would have.
levi (not verified)09:49am
Nov 5
SA is beatable, even with Manu. However, without him, the Spurs had no answer for the speed of Dallas on the wings (Terry, Howard) in combination with the floor generalship of Kidd (10 assists). And like so many teams, SA doesn't have anyone who can effectively slow down Nowitski. Alas, the Wolves don't bring speed, floor generalship, or a deadly accurate 7-ft tall outside shooting threat to the court, so they'll have to try something else, I guess. I did notice a new face for the Spurs, Roger Mason Jr., a free agent pickup off the Wizards, presumably getting floor time because of Manu being out.. I got the impression that Popovich is really going to be able to develop this young man into a championship caliber player, maybe even at PG. It should be interesting to watch him vs McCants in tonight's game.
Andy G (not verified)11:35am
Nov 3
Iverson to Detroit for Chauncey and McDyess. Ballsy move by Detroit. I can hardly wait for Iverson vs. KG in the playoffs.
antonymous (not verified)12:05pm
Nov 3
Wow. This trade actually has potential to be win-win. The Nuggets, who are in win-now mode, just got a real PG and some depth behind a perpetually injured K-Mart. The Pistons give their young guns the ultimate vote of confidence by shipping off their reliable role players in favor of a spark. Gotta credit Dumars for having the guts to pull this off. I really hope Detroit's young bench can keep up their high level of play.
Britt Robson02:35pm
Nov 3
The best take I've read thus far is by Henry Abbott at True Hoop, who doesn't receive nearly as much love from me as he should, given the comprehensive quality of his site and how often he's linked my stuff. It's a pleasure to return the favor: http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-36-1/Joe-Dumars-Strikes-Again.html And someday I've got to reinstitute my own links again as in the old days...
antonymous (not verified)01:03am
Nov 5
My first reaction of trades relates to the players involved. Second is the salary implications. I'm still win-win on this trade, but with some caveats. Stuckey is a great player in the D-Wade mold, but neither him nor Iverson is truly a PG (neither is Afflalo, for those keeping score at home). Obviously, this trade opens up plenty of options, and the resigning of Hamilton tells me they will not involve the SG position. Yes, they've got money, and Bosh is the default target with the upcoming expiration of Rasheed...but this team (and/or the wolves) can be truly great with multiple signings of "non-elite" level players - think Perkins, Howard, Dalembert, Pryzbilla, AK-47, Butler... How wild would this team be to sign a PG like Nash?
Dave is Money (not verified)01:09pm
Nov 3
Put Love in there and keep him in there and let him learn on the job. He seems to have enough basketball instincts to survive. Sure, he will get exposed, but let us see if he got game.
drza44 (not verified)05:27pm
Nov 3
For the stats heads, 82games.com is running a new article on the adjusted +/- scores for the NBA last season. Adjusted +/- is NOT a measure of "who is the best player", but instead is a measure of "what was the effect on the team scoreboard when this player was in the game", with an attempt to correct based on how good your teammates are. On the other hand, I don't think it's a coincidence that the best 5 players in the NBA according to this measure were KG, LeBron, Duncan, Ginobili, and Kobe. http://82games.com/ilardi2.htm Anyway, McCants led the Wolves by a country mile and ranked 21st in the league overall with a solid net positive offensive effect and a smaller net positive defensive effect. The only other then-Wolves player in the top-50 was Gomes, who was an offensive positive but a slight defensive negative. Big Al ranked out as a small offensive positive but a big defensive negative, so he didn't do well in this ranking. But new addition Mike Miller led the Grizzlies, and was in the top-40 overall.
levi (not verified)08:52am
Nov 4
That's a very interesting article. Glen Taylor has got to hate this quote: "Due to their poor defense and (in many cases) inconsistent overall effort, several players with eye-popping boxscore stats appear to be much less valuable than widely believed, among them: Carmelo Anthony (-1.83), Al Jefferson (-4.61), Kevin Martin (-2.16), Richard Jefferson (-2.45), Ben Gordon (-3.37), Jose Calderon (-0.55), Michael Redd (+0.08), and Carlos Boozer (+0.02)." If you look pretty deep down the list, you'll find Foye's numbers were totally negative, both on offense and defense. So was Telfair, but Seb wasn't quite the liability on defense. With only 300 minutes last year (and not playing for the Wolves) Kevin Ollie's almost neutral numbers make it seem like he'll hurt you much less than ANY of last year's PG options. A ray of hope *might* be that Jason Collins was pretty effective on the defensive side (to be fair, his offensive +/- was really bad).
RhinoLove (not verified)11:33am
Nov 4
Nobody is biting on your comment drza44. Small wonder, no one seems to want to face the facts (or the cold hard data in this case). We traded KG for Zach Randolph (or at least his statistical equivalent)and the "ghetto, thug" that everyone loves to hate is probably one of the few keepers on this squad. I am about to give up. I think the people on this blog may be the only remaining TWolves fans in town. Glen Taylor, sell this team or clean house!!! You are embarrassing yourself.
Britt Robson02:15pm
Nov 4
RL-- Now you're just being silly. If you really think Rashad McCants is more valuable to the Minnesota Timberwolves than Al Jefferson, or that Jefferson is no better or worse than Zach Randolph, then we're watching different games out there. I think on balance I've been a fairly consistent Shaddy defender. And I agree that the attitude and drama surrounding McCants frequently blinds people to his virtues. But any measure that considers him the 21st most valuable player in the NBA is suspect, don't you think?
levi (not verified)06:28pm
Nov 4
(shrug) Some people grade out far higher than you'd expect on the +/- rating. A few years ago, Brian Cardinal was the poster boy for this. And by this study, he seems to still be effective -- at least by this metric. It is a bit of an unexplained mystery. On the other hand, that's what statistical analysis (and scientific investigation in general) is supposed to do -- point out things that are counter-intuitive. I would venture to say that a contributing factor to Rashad's "success" is that for the most part, he usually plays against second stringers. Although this study is extremely comprehensive in it's approach, as far as I could tell, it does not account for the quality of opponents. And as a "reality check" one might also consider Rashad's PER number, which for last year came to 16.7 (where 15.0 is "average"), but not anything approaching a Top 25 ranking. On the flip side, I am not surprised by Carmelo Anthony and Al Jefferson's "unexpectedly low" rankings in this study .
RhinoLove (not verified)11:03pm
Nov 4
The term "more valuable" implies that the team is creating value and winning games. I'd term it less harmful or that he is additive to the overall (if fruitless) effort. McCants is, in my opinion, a very nice young player who could have a meaningful place in this rebuilding effort. I don't harbor illusions that he is a great player, but the evidence supports him being part of the solution, not the problem. More importantly, Al Jefferson is hurting us. We are running too much offense through him (with bad results), and allowing him to play terrible defense. He is not what he is purported to be...a leader, a superstar, a difference maker. We need to transform his role, or dump him while his trade value is still fairly high. If he took 5-10 less shots a game and concentrated on playing passable D and grabbing rebounds, then yes, he could be a valuable cog on this team. But he is not, and never will be the best player on a good team. If that isn't clear by now, then 'yes', we are watching different games.
antonymous (not verified)12:35am
Nov 5
I think your comments regarding Al are prescient - we've given Al a free pass on D because he provides so much on the other end. In terms of roles, it only reinforces our lack of a solid C, which our team (and many others in the league) has lacked forever. I don't think that you can "trade" 5-10 shots per game for quality defense from any player, but you can ask for interior help (which folks on this blog have been asking for since Luc Longley's departure - ha). However, I don't place blame on Al for our running too much offense through him - we seem to give him the ball in less-than-optimal situations. As someone mentioned earlier, when was the last time you saw a basic inside-outside game with Al and Miller/Foye/McCants? We allow the defense to give him confounding doubleteams (meaning coming from different defenders each time), and then get upset that he can't pass out of them. I agree that McCants is a quality player - we have no right complaining that he would never start for a championship-caliber team. He'd start on most teams in the West (excepting Warriors, Blazers, Lakers, Kings, and Rockets) or at least play significant minutes. He's a spark plug on what would otherwise amount to an offensively anemic second unit, and that's nothing to scoff at. I know that you're using the "ghetto" term somewhat facetiously and in reference to other threads, but let's try to keep the trolling to a minimum here. I know you post here often and you bring good stuff to the table, but I don't want this great blog to stoop to that. Thanks (but keep commenting!). Oh, and speaking of trolling: what a wonderful day in politics, no? YES WE DID. Vegas Odds are 2-1 that Britt wins a Pulitzer when he smacks down T-Paw during his 2012 campaign ;)
midlife crisis (not verified)06:14am
Nov 5
In response to the trolling... I was a little worried at the beginning of the speech that instead of delivering the speech we were hoping for that Obama was going to just continue thanking his campaign designers. It seemed only about the strategy (ala Rove) and my wife remarked, "Is this going to be the second best speech we hear tonite?" (after McCain's spot on concession). Wow, though. Obama can close out better than 4th quarter Foye. More importantly, the problem with McCants is his +/- and apparent skills only rarely create wins. In OK, the woofies were the more talented team. If McCants played in a way that made better sense, it probably would have made up the three points. McCants isn't in JR RIder's league, crazy wise, but too often his game is overwhelmed by weird decisions. Foye's poor decisions are somewhat tempered because he is likely not as talented and still (and probably forever) playing out of position. Let's hope Telfair brings better decisions along with ball movement (and a year ago, could anyone imagine we would be saying and thinking that about Sebastian Telfair?)
Caerochren (not verified)01:23pm
Nov 5
I think it's fair to say McCant's isn't in JR Rider's league in any sense. Rider had the basketball ability to be a top 5 player in the league, had he been sane the combination of him and KG would have been unmatched. The wolves were one defective brain away from dominating the league. Too get back to the current wolves, I agree with the posters who feel Jefferson is being miscast as the best player on the team who simply needs complementary players around him. He is a good enough front court player that the requirements for center are pretty clearly defined (e.g. a young Marcus Camby sounds ideal), the best player is going to be a point guard or wing player. Or the wolves will continue to struggle, perhaps the more likely possibility.
drza44 (not verified)11:23am
Nov 5
I'm reading these comments and replying in real-time, when perhaps I should have read all of them before responding. Because I find that you say a lot of what I just got done typing, and in many cases more succinctly. I have nothing against Big Al, and think he is a great young player. I think referring to him as Zach Randolph is inflammatory because of the negative connotations that Randolph brings, so I prefer to be a bit more positive about Big Al. That said, I do think he is miscast as the superstar, when in fact his game is not quite diverse enough to deserve that label. He is an excellent interior scorer and a great rebounder...let him be that, and bring in someone else to be the engine of the team. I think that if the Wolves continue to market him and "build" around him as the focal point franchise player, they are doing both he and the fans a disservice because they are setting him (and the team) up to fail in the long run.
drza44 (not verified)11:15am
Nov 5
Wow. The last time I looked there were no responses to me, and today there's a bunch. I'll stop and address this one, though, since it comes from the head honcho around here. Particularly that last line about the measure being "suspect" because McCants ranks 21st in the whole NBA. As I tried to emphasize in my original post, adjusted +/- isn't a "best player" measurement, it is a "who's presence has the most positive impact on the team" measurement. This takes into account things besides talent, for instance team role and whether the player's skillset/role are conducive to success. I don't think anyone would argue that McCants is a better player, or a more valuable player than Big Al. But what this (and other measures) tells me is that McCants has performed his particular TASK better than Jefferson has. Jefferson is being cast as the centerpiece, the focal point, the entire offense is built around him and (almost by definition) the big man is the key piece to the defense. And the early returns are that his skillset is just not conducive to being the focal point. Still an outstanding player, and of course the team could hide his shortcomings better with a floor general point guard on offense and a defensive-minded big cohort on defense. But with him cast as the main guy, the team doesn't seem to do well. McCants, meanwhile, is cast as a secondary player with defined roles: score, penetrate, long-range threat, disruptive on-ball defense. And the numbers suggest that McCants does that very well, that in fact he fulfills his role better than any other Wolves player fulfills their role. And perhaps, just perhaps, he could do more if given the chance. It suggests that the knocks on his attitude, his complaints to the refs, his scowls, his "lazy D", whatever the knock might be...are overblown, because despite those perceived faults he still does his job on the court at a high level. Could he be better if he didn't have those faults? Absolutely. But at the same time, don't miss the forest for the trees...don't sleep on the fact that he is doing his job well because his mannerisms and persona rub the wrong way. Bottom line: I'd like to see numbers like this used intelligently by the coaching and management. Don't try to fit Big Al into a hole that he isn't built to fulfill. At the same time, do a better job utilizing the strengths/weaknesses of the players that are producing. Nobody is saying that McCants is the 21st best player in the NBA, but at the same time, he must be doing something right so maybe pay more attention to how to make the best use of him.
Tim (not verified)06:54pm
Nov 3
Randy Foye is not a point guard and he never will be. He has a shooter's mentality. He wants to jack up the three pointer whenever he is slightly open, even if there are 18 seconds left on the shot clock. He has very limited dribble penetration skills in terms of finding the open man or getting himself a shot that he can actually finish. I actually look forward to seeing Telfair come back. At least, he tries to run the offense and use his speed to draw a double-team in the lane and dish to Al or whoever is open for easy points. Play Foye at the two-guard with Telfair or Ollie or don't play him. It's too painful to watch him try to run the offense. When he is hot shooting, go with him. When he is cold, sit him down. Admit that it was a very bad draft. Admit that we gave away the Mario Chalmers pick. Fire the front office and get some real basketball minds in here. I'd rather give Wittman a chance than keep giving McHale, Stack, etc. more chances.
Andy G (not verified)08:42am
Nov 4
I'm trying to get as much out of my free preview of League Pass, as possible, and caught a little of the Clips-Jazz, last night. Dunleavy is still running the CONSTANT one-on-one, isolation, back down stuff, with Cat Mobley and Tim Thomas. Thornton hardly touches the ball and Gordon doesn't get off the bench. They lost to a Deron-less Utah team by about 15. Anyway, Baron Davis doesn't help them much, in that system, and Kaman-Camby is the only bright spot on the team. It made me feel a little better about the Wolves, since they looked more hopeless than us--and with a much more veteran ballclub.

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