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On the Ball

The Three-Pointer: 3rd Quarter Fold

Game #74, Road Game #36: Minnesota 100, Utah 117

Season Record: 19-55

 1. One-Way Jefferson

Those who check the box score will surmise that Al Jefferson had one of his worst games of the season tonight as the Wolves were routed by Utah, who turned a close and enjoyably contested first half into a blowout with a 38-22 pasting in the third quarter en route to a 117-100 final. I'm posting this quickly and thus am unaware if Jefferson was benched for the entire 4th quarter because he was ailing, or Wittman was displeased with his performance, or merely because it was the frustrating back end of a two-nighter that the Wolves weren't going to pull out in the final 12 minutes anyway.

The line shows Jefferson with a remarkably anemic two rebounds, zero assists and 12 points on 5-13 FG and 2-2 FT in 27:49 of action. What the box score doesn't reveal is that Big Al had one of his more dedicated and effective defensive performances of the year, limiting Carlos Boozer to 5-12 FG and just 12 points (although Boozer did grab 7 rebounds and pass for 4 assists). There weren't any of the gaudy blocked shots that have raised the shoddy reputation of Jefferson's defense in recent weeks (although he had a beautiful block that Joey Crawford, a once-great ref who had another in a series of bad nights in recent years, ruled a foul). But there was a stauch commitment to preventing points by the opposing team's top scorer. For all the times I ripped Jefferson's D while he was posting 24 and 15 in a mid-winter Wolves loss, I owe him the nod that he did himself proud on one end of the court once again tonight.

And there's the rub: Although not to the dramatic extent we saw tonight, there seems to be a correlation between the improvement in Jefferson's defense and a slight dropoff in his points and rebounds. I remember two or three years ago when the Wolves started asking Trenton Hassell to play a larger role--a #2 or #3 option--on offense, and he told me in the locker room that quality defense took so much out of him that he wasn't sure he could step up like that. (Hassell's scoring did improve fairly significantly during that experiment and his defense dipped slightly.)

The point is, Jefferson expends an enormous, and underappreciated, amount of energy getting his points. He's scoring in the toughest part of the court, the paint, against teams whose top defensive priority is to stop him, usually with two players and/or specific schemes. And being an undersized center all year long, he's also had to battle folks as big or bigger than him for rebounds. Throw in the bump and grind of deterring a gritty and wily low post scorer like Boozer on the tail end of a home-road back-to-back and it's not surprising that the man came up short.

2. Foye or McCants

I am becoming convinced that there are Foye people and McCants people. Both players have really excitable and excreable aspects to their games and honest appraisals of both should resemble a roller coaster, given how inconsistent both players have been and how capable they are of engendering hope and disgust not only from game to game but stint to stint within games. I know I've lauded and lambasted each one with a yo-yo regularity.

I confess that Foye has genuinely raised my ire more often this season, despite the fact that he's played fewer games than Shaddy, and I think it's because I believe Foye is more a part of the future firmament for this franchise than is McCants. I don't imagine the Wolves are going to keep both players around for the next two or three years and if a choice is made, McCants will be the one packing his bags.

The reason I feel this way is because when the team wiped the slate clean with the KG trade, much was made internally about getting high character guys who mesh in the locker room and on the court and foster the kind of synergy required to be a perpetual playoff team. And Shaddy's volatility doesn't fit that definition as well as Foye's comparative "maturity" and magnanimity. Now there is a good chance this intuitive thinking on my part is inaccurate (for example, the entire dynamic may change if a stud point guard falls to the team in the draft or another ballclub likes Foye or McCants enough to make an attractive trade offer). That's why I haven't raised it before, and wouldn't be talking about it now, except that I have to acknowledge that Foye's foibles are more irksome to me than Shaddy's.

Like his complete inability to guard his man. A night after rook Rodney Stuckey showed him up, he stepped up in class in a major way going against Deron Williams, and Williams toyed with him. Sure, as happened last night, Foye posted decent numbers, and finished with 15 points and 6 assists. But after three quarters, Williams was a perfect 7-7 from the field, and had 13 assists and no turnovers. Can a defender be undressed any more thoroughly than that? D-Will's dribble penetration consistently broke down the Minnesota defense, setting up a large advantage in points in the paint *and* better than 50% shooting from behind the arc. That's why after three periods, Williams had a game-best plus +21 and Foye had a game-worst minus -21.

Given that Foye is more the rugged type of point guard at 6-4, 213, and is coming off a significant knee injury, one might think a quick opponent like Stuckey would give him trouble. But then he should be a better matchup for Williams, who is 6-3, 205, and quicker of thought than he is of foot. Nope, resoundingly nope. So if Foye can't guard Stuckey (27 points last night) and Williams, who can he guard?

Now folks who are aggravated by McCants were probably throwing things at their televisions when Shaddy was ignoring his teammates and jacking up treys, or coming up a step slow on defense himself on occasion. It certainly felt that way on occasion. But the thing is, McCants made more than half his shots (6-11 FG), including his treys (3-5 from 3pt), and, as usual, posted a plus/minus (minus -5) that was relatively better than most of his teammates, an ongoing phenomenon that has occurred whether he's starting or coming off the bench. Announcers Tom Hanneman and Jim Petersen frequently mentioned that McCants had a bad game last night against the Pistons--and he did shoot 1-9 FG. But I thought Foye's performance was more injurious in the loss, and there was no mention of Foye's bad game versus Detroit. Maybe Hanny and Pete are "Foye people."

3. And As For the Small Forwards...

Kirk Snyder has taken a step back since Wittman's decision to reinsert Corey Brewer into the starting lineup. Tonight, defending Matt Harpring (the matchup that prompted Witt to give him more minutes early in his Wolves tenure), he was outhustled in the paint and in transition more often, and just didn't have that spark he showed in his first few appearances off the bench and then always as a starter.

Meanwhile, Brewer continues to be a high energy, high IQ performer who is a suspect shooter, to put it charitably, and physically overmatched on many occasions. Tonight he popped for a decent 4-9 FG and got to the line 4 times (albeit three of them in garbage time), but had just one rebound and zero dimes in 24:24.

Bonus fourth point: J-Pete noted how Jefferson was being bodied by Mehmet Okur on D, who was also able to wrest rebounds away from Gomes down low, and called for a little Jefferson-Chris Richard tandem on the front line. It was a temporary plea to short-circuit the smallball. But I've talked about that enough already.

38 Reader Comments

Captain America (not verified)05:10am
Apr 3
I've been all over the place on Foye and McCants. My enthusiasm for Foye was based more on hope than fact coming out of his rehab. He seems to be an erratic, slow afoot shooting guard rather than a point guard. Opposing players regularly get by him with their first step on his defense. Britt, your good/bad Shaddy is a good analogy. Shaddy has a larger tool box than Foye by far, and he can create offense for himself and his team mates. The question is: which side of Shaddy will prevail? Personally, I grow more skeptical on these players by the game and question whether either of them will be serviceable players for Wolves Future, Inc. Brewer looks more frail by the game. If there is a legitimate case to be made for steroids, Brewer would be Exhibit A. As for his shooting, Brewer seems to make his first three or four shots and then clanks the rest. It's all about stamina, emotional maturity, and physical growth for him. A well thought out regimen that doesn't deter him from the capabilities he does have while equipping him to become a more formidable NBA player. The entire Wolves team seems to be composed of 60% players. Good at certain skills while deficient and detrimental at others. If this season is an audition, I'm ready to vote all but Jefferson off the island.
RhinoLove (not verified)02:13pm
Apr 3
The toolbox analogy is a good one. It is basically a fact that McCants is more athletic, more skilled, and has better two guard size than Foye. I really don't see how anyone could honestly argue these points. It's also true that Randy Foye was a much better player last year. We are ripping Foye when he's playing at what appears to be much less than 100% of his peak condition. Ideally, the Wolves face the facts and realize that Foye can be a good bench contributor at both the 1 and 2, and stop trying to cover their asses on the botched pick by pretending he is a starting point. And as long as we are on the ideal kick...we draft Rose, move McCants to the starting 2, run the ball more and stop pounding it into Al so often. Everybody else scores more, Al scores less and plays better defense, and maybe we attain a respectable record in the near future.
Wim (Belgium (not verified)05:23am
Apr 3
Damn, it seems like we do need some more pieces before the puzzle will be complete. The most obvious need is at the center as mentioned many times before and it's very simple there: we need a defensive center. The other thing is a lot harder, add a stud PG and then what. Foye and Mccants both at SG? It's gonna be interesting to see how that develops. Anyway, I guess I must be one of the Foye people 'cuz I think he still deserves some more time. It's especially disturbing to hear he's struggeling so much at the defensive end. It sounds like that's also one of his tweener probablems, too slow for PG's to small for SG's. Though I'm still believing in Foye.
Peter Weinhold (not verified)07:08am
Apr 3
According to an AP report published yesterday, the average time of optimal sexual intercourse is around 7.3 minutes, with the range being anywhere from three to 13 minutes. Based on those figures, the Jazz--with their 12 minutes of relentless penetration in the 3rd quarter--hit the top end of the scale. I believe Jerry Sloan is indeed the coaching equivalent to Viagra. Foye, McCants, Jaric...those guys can't really stop anybody off the dribble, period. Jaric gets into passing lanes and makes occasional steals; his length presents problems for the opposition, but can't stay in front of anyone quicker. Since Marko's contract still probably precludes him getting easily dealt to anyone, we are now at a similar place between Foye and McCants that we were to Green and McCants. If Derrick Rose were to drop in our laps, my solution would be the same to the Gerald/Shaddy conundrum....deal both Foye and McCants for a quality big, if possible. I realistically think that would never happen, because then the howls would come from people like myself who would have the list of failed draft picks at the ready. Right now at least, the Wolves either have to find a shot-blocking interior player who can buffer the lack of perimeter defense finesse a bit, or find folks who can stop the ball penetration better, and continue the smallball experiment. If next year they could have a better functioning, sharing offense with a defense that could make an occasional stop in the second half when necessary, that might get them to the 30-40 win plateau. It's not old school, but it would be clear progress to fans and observers alike.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)07:16am
Apr 3
Consider me a Shaddy guy: http://www.canishoopus.com/blogs/stopnpop/2008/04/02/preparing-death-match How's that for timing? I put it up last night during the game. Outside of the fact that Foye can neither play the 1 at an above average level or guard the 2 with anything approaching proficiency, he has been the team's worst regular performer at the off guard spot. As a group, the Wolves are out-performed at the 2 by a PER of -4.8 while getting outscored by nearly 4 points/game. When Foye lines up at the 2, he's getting blasted by a -7.8 PER while giving up 3.7 ppg. Shaddy comes in at -2.0 with the PER and +3.3 with the ppg. Clicking on the link above, you can see I list of stats I've compiled comparing their 2 games. From PER to eFG to Roland Rating to bad passing turnovers to net production (and on and on), Shaddy is the better performer. Even in a team setting, his cooperative numbers (+/-, on/off) indicate that the Wolves' offense (and defense) perform at a higher clip than Foye. Even the 5 man unit stats show this to be a trend. Even without Derrick Rose landing in their laps, they have a tough decision to make with Foye. Marko aint going anywhere and if they decide that Bassy is a good backup option at the point, the status quo remains and they'll still be left with a backup who runs the point better than the starter and a high-scoring 3 guard coming off the bench. Yuck. If Mr. Rose happens to make it up to the frozen tundra, then...well, Foye absolutely has to go as he is a clearly inferior 2 guard compared to McCants. The sad thing about all of this is that I don't think the Foye vs. Shaddy death match will be decided by on court play. Britt, you mentioned the make-believe locker room stuff (I say make-believe because fans have no way of verifying it and I personally don't think volatility is a bad thing), but I think more of the decision will be based on marketing and the fact that Foye is the meat in a Brandon Roy/Rudy Gay sandwich. He's our very own Sam Bowie and the team won't give up on him quickly enough to actually move forward in a way that would truly get everyone beyond the KG era...which I believe Foye's selection is a perfect indicator of the type of bone-headed moves made during that period of time. If the team really wants fans to know that things have changed around there, do the right thing and make the most out of the Foye mistake by either trading him or making him the 3rd guard. Not only has he cost the squad Roy and Gay, but he's well on his way to costing them their only legit perimeter threat/off-guard. Also, let's say the Wolves have an opportunity to draft Derrick Rose and they pass because they already have a point in Foye. Now, don't get me wrong: this is a position I advocated earlier in the year, but it should not be forgotten that if such a scenario should play out, Mr. Foye would be the reason for yet another player getting passed up. Worst. Wolves. Pick. Ever.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)07:18am
Apr 3
Correction of typo: Foye gives up 3.1 points at the 2 while the team gives up 3.7 as a whole. All stats from this post taken from here: http://www.82games.com/0708/0708MIN.HTM
Andy b (not verified)10:52am
Apr 3
S&P, Although I do think part of Foye's problem can still be attributed to his sitting out a half season, I am not positive he is the PG the Wolves need. Someone mentioned the idea of drafting Mayo this spring and having him play alongside Telfair. WIth Jaric able to back up either player, the Wolves could trade Foye (or McCants) for a big to someone who is willing to take a chance that Foye still has a big upside and this season was an aberation caused by his knee injury. What do you think of a Mayo pick and trading Foye [or McCants] and who could we get for him if we did.
Anonymous (not verified)04:31pm
Apr 3
A few things: 1- I know there is a lot of talk in this comment section about Foye's ability to just switch over to the off guard spot and be effective. There is nothing in his track record to suggest that this is a reasonable possibility, let alone that he would be more proficient at the spot than Shaddy. Foye was a poor shooting, penetrating undersized guard on a gimmicky 3 guard college offense. His size, shooting percentages, assist/to rates, and age were all clear red flags at the time of his drafting. Even more troubling is that unlike Memphis' non-pro style offense (which I'm a big proponent of...I hope it catches on in the pros...it's a great way to teach b-ball), Villanova's offense doesn't translate well to the pro game. While Foye has had fairly average production (which I note in my post at Canis Hoopus), it comes at a cost...the cost being subpar defense, below-average point play and an inability to really play the off guard spot. 2- Please take a look at Foye's off-guard postitional stats. He's not even in the same ballpark as Shaddy when it comes to playing the 2. Granted, he is coming off an injury and his production at the 2 is almost equal in terms of PER/ppg differential to Shaddy's injury season, but Foye hasn't matched Shaddy's net production/40 numbers over the same period of time. The team simply does better with Shaddy on the court. 3- Age, age, age, age, age. As if their redundancy couldn't be any more glaring, they were practically born on the same day a year apart. Shaddy is a year younger than Foye with a year's more experience in the league. If one has to go, you take the younger guy with better numbers...plain and simple. 4- I don't know where everyone is getting the idea that any team in their right mind would swap a decent big for Foye or Shaddy. Shaddy maybe, but Foye has played 1/2 the season while compiling less than astounding numbers. Last year he had a 14 PER while getting 16 points and 4.4 assists per 36 minutes. What team would look at the upcoming draft and decide that a potential 2nd rounder like Courtney Lee + their own big man is worth less than Randy Foye? I don't know either. He'd have to be packaged with some picks or with Toine's silly salary. Foye is going to be a supremely average player in this league. While he's not going to be as bad as I thought he would be coming out of college, he's a servicable pro who has many good years ahead of him in the NBA if he stays healthy. My point here (and over at Canis Hoopus) is that the Wolves shouldn't lose sleep over deciding which average 6'4" combo/shooting guard they should keep when it is clear that a) neither can really run the point and b) one of them is younger and with better numbers. Even if Foye hits his high end (17/5/5), it will likely come at the cost of bad defense, so-so shooting and slightly below average point play.
Anonymous (not verified)04:50pm
Apr 3
Ooops, I forgot to answer Andy B's main question. As much as I like Mayo's game and I think he'll be a good pro (I've mentioned it here before), I don't think the Wolves wouldn't be doing themselves any favors by taking Mayo. Outside of the two must have players (Rose, Beasley), the talent in this draft is all pretty similar in terms of the top prospects and I think they need to address one of their most glaring needs: a center or a perimeter proficient 3/4. There are many reasons why the Wolves lose a ton of basketball games. Outside of a general lack of talent, their 2 most glaring weaknesses are 3 point shooting and free throw shooting. These two items create problems on both ends of the court. From spacing to a low eFG to a built-in 8 point disparity at the free throw line, the Wovles need a wing player who can hit the 3 and put the ball on the floor and get to the rim. I believe they need this more than they do a legit center. I'm talking about players like Danilo Gallinari, CDR, Chase Budinger, and Joe Alexander. Hell, even players like Donte Greene and Anthony Randolph could provide value above and beyond midgets like DJ Augustin, Ty Lawson, Jeryd Bayless, and Eric Gordon. I know those wing players aren't exactly way up high in most mock drafts, but I think the Wolves can't get too crazy with their top pick when considering that the other options are small guards (Bayless, Gordon), unproven centers (Jordan, Hibbert), or Kevin Love. Playing fantasy general manager, if I were in charge of the Wolves and I didn't get one of the top 2 picks, I would do my best to gather 2 picks in the top 15 by offering up some of the small change assets the team has gathered over the past year (2 2nd rounders, Toine's contract, trade exception, Celtics/Heat 2009 1st rounders, Foye) and take (in order) Gallinari, Lopez, Randolph with the top pick and (in order) CDR, Budinger, or Alexander with the 2nd pick. Hell, take Kevin Love if he's still available. Then hope and pray that Jason Thompson of Rider falls to the 1st pick of the 2nd round.
stop-n-pop (not verified)04:51pm
Apr 3
sorry, that was me
Peter Weinhold (not verified)07:35pm
Apr 3
Kind of weird having a discussion with a co-blogger on a different blog, but that's how we roll I guess. I would respectfully take issue with what's Minnesota's major weakness, because to me it's defense, not offense. We stop absolutely no one on the perimeter, and we are undersized in the front court. To add a three point shooter without having a more cohesive offensive strategy--ball movement, or a clear inside out strategy, for example--is fool's gold. However, as I mentioned in the last post, if they want to move up another 10 or 20 games with a run and shoot offense, and hope from time to time they can stop someone in critical second-half situations, well, okay. After what the fans have gone through the last few years, we deserve a few more wins and an entertaining brand of basketball. But the chances to seriously compete for a championship are nearly nil, unless the team develops the type of defensive swagger that the Spurs or Celtics have right now. Ironically enough, the Spurs are a great three point shooting team, but what got them there was their defense, not offense. As for Shaddy/Foye, I think if we were lucky to have Rose drop in our laps, you'd have to create a package where multiple Wolves players were involved to get a big. That might mean both McCants and Foye, or Smith, or some draft choices. Because I haven't been hitting off of a bong since my high school days, I wouldn't expect that to happen anytime too soon. Plus, given McHale's acumen, the big would probably end up the second coming of Mark Blount. However, imagine the buzz a bonafide big with Rose and Big Al would create. Re-sign Telfair, add a mid-level shooter who knows how to play two-way, and I think you've really got something to build on. So really, the question for McHale and crew is: how far do they really want to take this? All during KG's tenure here they talked about championships, but acted like they were happy to make the playoffs and spin championship potential, except for the one year when Ticket pushed them. My contention has been for mid-market teams like the Wolves, Wild and Twins, it's more profitable to promise a championship than to actually deliver one.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)08:42pm
Apr 3
Duking it out Canis-style in the OTB comment section ;) I can go for the defense as a major weakness point. However, I'd argue that the free throw disparity goes a long way towards that. Most defensive numbers are based on a straight points/game or points/possession sort of calculation. FTM plays into that. Right now the Wolves give up about 6 points/game at the line. The NBA median is about a +0.3/game. If the Wolves were an average team in regards to free throws, their -6.6 point differential suddenly becomes a bit more manageable...regardless of their bad d. However, above and beyond the stats, their defensive weaknesses (especially in the paint) are easy to see with even a passing glance. After spending a lot of time worrying about taking 3 6'4" guards in the last 4 drafts (should they have the opportunity to draft Rose), I'm all on board with taking the young guy should they get the chance. If they do, I'm also all on board for doing whatever it takes to get rid of Foye or Shaddy (or both) + a few small change assets to get a big guy to play along side of Big Al. As for style, I'm an absolute homer for up-tempo basketball based on spacing, dribble drives, and 3s. I think there is nothing better than 4 players spread out along the perimeter with 1 big working the middle (always making sure to check himself to the opposite side of the lane as the guy making the dribble drive). Run a few handoffs or backcuts at the beginning of every possession and then space it out for drive after drive after drive. Either get to the rim, pass it to someone close to the rim or kick it out for a 3. I'm really hoping that some of the Dribble Drive Motion sets that Boston is running catches on league wide. Hell, maybe the Wolves could get Rose and CDR and bring Memphis' game to the pros ;) I'd love to see a Rose, CDR, Brewer, Gomes perimeter around Big Al in the center. Even if it were for just 1/2 of each game, it would be a nice change of pace to have that amount of length and athleticism along the perimeter to make up for the lack of it in the middle. Throw in Snyder and McCants as the 1st subs and you have a team that is far more built for up tempo DDM than it is for pound-it-into-Al ball.
Wim (Belgium) (not verified)02:52am
Apr 4
Again discussion orgy out here again. Who would want to buy magazines if you've got this kind of quality for free ... Kudos to you all. It's still to bad we didn't get to see Foye play the whole year. Even if he's not at all improving since he had the injury you could still blame it on fatigue by not having been able to keep the conditioning where it should be. I do think there's something to be said for using Foye as the tweener he is: let him be the first to come of the bench and put him in wherever matchup dictates, sometimes at the 2, sometimes at the 1. Maybe we can create some matchup confusion by switching him over so the other team's coach has to adapt. That would off course mean we need a stud 1. I'm also high on Gallinari because of his getting to the Free throw line. A lot of the names S-n-P mentions are also on my board as ppl who might fill both a positional need (SF, C) and a functional need (FT shooting, spreading the floor because of good shooting, protecting the paint, ...). Hope we'll be able to discuss this more thorougly on draft night chat, hope you'll all chip in.
Andy G (not verified)05:24pm
Apr 3
Foye is currently hitting 39.6% of his threes, which, if he had enough attempts to qualify, would put him tied for 30th (with Chauncey of all players) in the league. Without his slow start after the injury, that number would be over 40. Also, he's not a selective three shooter, so that number is about as low as it could get. I don't like Foye at the 1, because I don't think he has that mentality, or passing ability. However, unless being two inches shorter than MJ and Kobe is a death sentence for a 2-guard, I don't see why his skill set doesn't make for a pretty good off-guard. He can stroke threes and take it hard to the basket. If he can be coached to do those two things, and nothing more, he'll be valuable for somebody.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)06:18pm
Apr 3
A few things: he's hitting for 40/37% over the last 10 games. He had a wicked stretch of 3 point shooting that put him in the 40s and he's since begun to trend back to where he always was. That number is as high as it is *because* of an early hot start shooting from distance. He went 41% from 3 in Feb, 40% in March, and he's going at 33% with a limited sample size in April. You've got it backwards on this one. I don't get where you are coming from on the rest of your take. Foye's numbers don't stack up to even his own teammates while manning the 2. on/off and +/- numbers comparative to position show this to be a pretty clear trend...especially compared to Shaddy. He has been very selective in his 3 point shooting. Check out his hotspots numbers over at NBA.com. The vast majority of his 3 point shots are from 45 degrees on either side of the court; i.e. he's catching and shooting out of set plays and screens. Very few of his 3s come from the corners or the top of the key. Sure his skill set could work at the 2. I'm not doubting that. What I'm saying is that they don't work as well as Shaddy's...who just happens to be younger with better numbers.
Andy G (not verified)07:02pm
Apr 3
Most of my points were based on my own observations since Foye's return. I thought he looked noticeably rusty and out-of-shape in that first stretch of games he played after the injury, so I figured I'd look to see if any stats were out of the norm in that time frame. His first 6 games had him shooting 4-19 from 3. If you take that out, his percentage on 3's jumps up to 43.4%. Our debate is a good example of how stats can be used however you want them, and it's why I try to avoid them when making judgments. As for his being selective as a 3-shooter, again, I'm saying he's not selective because, when I watch, he fires when he catches it and he's open. He never seems to hesitate or wait for a "super-open" shot. I'm not sure what to tell you on the hotspots thing--since he's running the point now, he's probably not in the corners much, and since no point shoots right away at the top, he probably ends up shooting from the wing. I don't see how "where" he shoots has to do with "how frequently he shoots when open." I like Shaddy as much as anyone--(at least I thought I did until I read today's comments)--but I don't trust him as a key starter on a good team. He's a ball-stopper and consistently gets distracted by stupid shit like fans, cheerleaders, refs, etc. However, his ADD can survive short stretches of hot shooting, and I think he serves an important role as 6th man. I'd prefer Foye as a starter, since he shows much of Shaddy's talents, with ten times his focus. His "fourth quarter foye" moments that take away touches for Big Al would worry me less if he were the two guard and doing less of the ball-handling/play-making.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)07:35pm
Apr 3
"Our debate is a good example of how stats can be used however you want them, and it's why I try to avoid them when making judgments." ...we'll have to agree to disagree on that one ;) I think I've shown a 3 month downward progression on the 3 ball and...well, I think the stats more than speak for themselves on his proficiency at the off guard. With the type of offense the Wolves run, the guards will see most of their 3 points attempts from the 2 zones where Foye takes the majority of his shots. It's how their sets are run and where the kickouts are aimed. Look at Shaddy's and you'll see the same thing. When they reverse or kick out the ball to the perimeter, it typically never makes it all the way around to the 3 or 4 in the corner. I'd love to find a site to confirm it, but I'd be willing to be a lot of money that these are selected 3s in specific sets. As for the whole stat vs. perception thing, I agree that there is a lot of the game that can't be picked up by stats. I coach 4th grade girls and 7th grade boys and stats never come into play with the girls and only team stats are used with the boys. Yet, they still get by and I have a pretty good handle what is going on. However, I think basketball has a pretty solid set of advanced stats that are useful when describing the pro-level game. I disagree that basketball stats can be used however you want them. Take the little example here. Foye's 1st full month of ball saw him shoot 3s better than the proceeding month. His last 10 games continue the downward trend. I'm not sure how that shows how that shouldn't be taken into consideration when talking about Foye's game or how it is evidence that stats can be manipulated to proof text any given opinion. I'd love to see what sorts of internal stats the Wolves rely on. I'm sure they have all sorts of metrics worked out for the types of performance that fit their specific sets. Stats are a very important tool for evaluating basketball...especially as the players get closer and closer to the professional level. For my 7th grade team I keep points/possession, FTA/possession, turnovers forced/offensive rebounds given up, rebound rate, pace, and a few others. I try to have them limit non-3 point jumpers to less than 15% of the offense (layups/5 foot push shots or 3's are optimal). I try to have them hit a certain amount of FTA's game...stuff like this can really tell you a lot about the team and help you guide them to a specific type of performance. There's very little ambiguity in this if you set a clear sample size and use multiple data sets. Yeah, you can pick any given 6 game set in a season but that has nothing to do with trends unless you can place it in a greater context and hopefully show prior examples. I think you need about 500 minutes before you can start drawing any conclusions about a player's game. He played about 130 minutes in those first 6 games back. In his 7th game he went 4-7 from range. 2 games later he went 3-4. In a 6 game stretch between Feb 13th and 27th, he went 14-26 from range. Without this stretch, he's shooting 35% from 3 for the year. Are these useful glimpses into his game? No. Stats are just a tool and I think there is something to be said about proficiency and selection when discussing how they can be used (supposedly) to support anything. The preponderance of evidence with Foye suggest that he doesn't have the chops at the 2 as does Shaddy. They also suggest that he will likely end up as a 40-42% shooter from the field while shooting 35-37% from 3. I suspect that over a span of 82 games he'll end up with those numbers.
Andy G (not verified)11:51pm
Apr 3
I don't think there's anything wrong with searching for answers in stats, if that's your thing, but for me, it's easier to convince myself (if that's worth anything) of basketball truths by just watching the games, and maybe checking out some box scores and basic averages. Part of the reason I enjoy these comments, though, is some of the statistical analysis that I don't do myself. I don't usually read much into them, if I've already formed an opinion, but it makes for interesting perspectives. I think you and I had a back and forth debate a month or two ago about Foye's shooting--at that time, I was defending him based on his rookie numbers, which were around 37% from downtown. Regardless of whether he started slow, started hot, or how he'll finish, he's upped that to 39%, and I see that as improvement, which should be expected for a 2nd year player with good mechanics and attitude. Just like Shaddy has, I expect Foye to be a 40+% 3 shooter from here on out. It seems that just about everybody has seen enough Derrick Rose in the NCAA's to hope we land that Top-2 pick and grab him. If we are so lucky, I wouldn't mind keeping both Foye and McCants, as two guys that would clearly benefit from a dynamite setup guy like that. Both could become more "standing shooters" and expend more energy on defense.
Stop-n-Pop (not verified)06:58am
Apr 4
Fair enough. I get what you're saying. I enjoy the comments for pretty much the same reasons...I take a mostly stat-based approach and it's nice to see something else.
Cheezy B (not verified)12:23pm
Apr 3
I don't think it's fair to say that Foye cost the wolves Gay and Roy, he didn't pick himself. I think you are getting ahead of yourself, this team is still at least two losing seasons away from the playoffs. Don't write Foye off yet.
Andy G (not verified)01:49pm
Apr 3
Between Brandon Roy and Rudy Gay, which is MJ and which is Hakeem?
W+ Will (not verified)10:22am
Apr 3
Randy Foye CAN play better than he is now. He has really been disappointing this year. But, to be consistent - let's see how he does next season. That was sort of said about the time came back anyway. Remember Justin Morneau's nightmare season (the year before we won the MVP)? Imagine if the Twins had written him off early and traded him to Tampa Bay as was the rumor that particular offseason. You would have another David Ortiz situation. I don't think Foye has that upside, but the guy has talent. I remember before the draft he was up there in terms of hype with Roy. Roy has just been clearly the better player. If Derrick Rose can't be had - more than likely Foye will be given another chance next year or the Wolves will move Foye to 2 and start Marko at 1. Jaric played 42 minutes last night and had another good box score. Is this to set up an off-season trade or are the Wolves willing to revisit the Marko Jaric era at point guard (minus KG up in his grill all the time)? He really hasn't done it when the games count, but more than likely they won't move that contract any time soon.
College Wolf (not verified)11:44am
Apr 3
This was another one of the games that eventually became painful and boring to watch. We were kinda in it the first half since the score was close, but Utah looked like the infinitely superior team. You had to know it was only a matter of time before they blew the game open. While watching the game, I had thought to myself that Foye actually looked pretty good... until I see his boxscore this morning. Another 4 of 11 shooting night with 6 assists to 4 turnovers. I tried watching his perimeter defense and its still not very good at all, not counting on pick and rolls which aren't completely his fault. Its amazing how "good" he is at losing his man. The thing about Foye is that he can score a lot of points and in bunches, but he gives up as many (or more) points on defense. If anyone thinks he will be able to hang with Deron Williams, CP3, Tony Parker, or Baron Davis the next few years.... then I don't know what to tell you. Honestly, Marko probably had the best all-around game of anyone tonight. He's been playing very well lately. Its not his fault he has a big contract... anyone here would have signed it if someone offered that to us as well. Gomes was solid again, and pretty much the only reason it was close in the first quarter. Does anyone else think we should just play Brewer and Richard a ton of minutes? How can it hurt their development at this point unless they are completely overmatched (but it doesn't seem like they are.) Why are we playing Snyder at all unless the Front Office is intent on re-signing him? If they are going to re-sign him, fine, play him. I don't mind because he's been playing better than most guys recently. Still, I would hope they don't resign him for much more than a minimum amount, since he only adds to the logjam on our roster. This was definitely one of Big Al's bottom few games of the season. 5 of 13 shooting and 2 rebounds is inexcusable. We've got to have (much) more than that from the leader and best player on the team. I'm not sure if we'll ever win a game where Al has less than 15 points and only 2 rebounds. Everyone else was just "ehhhh." I guess McCants shot well, so that was good to see. I'm not sure why Doleac played at all. Was it because he maybe has friends and/or family in Utah? Weird. P.S. As everyone probably knows, I'm not a Foye *or* McCants guy. We can trade them both as far as I am concerned.
Just a Fan (not verified)12:04pm
Apr 3
CW, Count me in as one wanting to see a ton of Brewer and Richard and no Synder. I hate being redundant, but if Synder was under contract for next year, then I would play him. He (or Brewer, or others) becomes a tradeable asset whose value could be improved by showcasing him. But now? We either drive up his value higher than what we would be willing to pay (based on our log jam) or we develop him for someone else. And let's cut the crap about playing to win, developing a winning attitude, etc. If that were the goal, could some one explain why Wittman and his 27 different starting lineups is still our coach? This season is about 1 thing - who stays, what skills they the have, what potential they have, what weaknesses does that leave on the team, so we know what to pursue in the draft/FA.
Snyder (not verified)01:20pm
Apr 4
It's S-N-Y-D-E-R! Not Synder. The logic displayed here kind of astounds me. If you trade for a guy, how do you know whether he has any value to you unless you play him and see how he fits in with the rest of your roster? If you're not going to do that, why did you bother trading for him? You could've just cut Gerald Green or let him sit there and sulk. It's not like anyone's going to listen to him. Why does it have to be Brewer OR Snyder? Why can't Snyder and Brewer be on the court at the same time in certain situations with one playing SG and one playing SF? I like both players, so I'd personally like to see the Wolves look for ways to utilize them together if possible.
Wim (Belgium) (not verified)03:03pm
Apr 4
If you just cut Green you get nothing. If you trade him to Houston, you get a player with a contract that also expires this season, so that makes it status quo PLUS you get a FREE future 2nd round pick. If you can't use him anyway you might as wel get that 2nd round pick. Plus you'd also get a little more experience and proven player (with so called less potential, that's why Houston made the deal, the higher potential on Green) that you could use in case Brewer is getting fatigued, injured, ... So that was to answer your question "why would you bother if you're not gonna look at the guy". Obviously, that's not how it went down. Witt seemingly agnoliged (damn that's not how you spell that) that we need some kind of versatile SF that can a.) get to the free throw line b.) still play some defense (because he's gonna be subbing in for brewer and we don't want that other team's best wing player to be cut loose) c.) Offer some more spreading the floor. For that, I agree with you and I do also KINDA like Snyder. He does seem to get to the free throw line, is able to defend properly, not entirely sure about his shooting. If he's a keeper or not, nobody can tell at this point if you ask me. A lot depends on the draft (Rose, Lopez, Gallinari?), how much interest he gets from other teams, if we do other trades, is his overall talent enough, .... Don't mean to be a wise ass by replying this much...
Nate (not verified)11:45am
Apr 3
File under Foye Apologist If Foye is not the point guard of the future, then I do think there must be some decision regarding Foye or McCants. This quote from Wittman suggests that Foye, in the mind of the head coach, is a combo guard: --------------------------------------- Wittman said he believes Foye's future in the NBA rides on playing point guard and shooting guard. "I think that's what he is," Wittman said. "He's got to hone his skills more at the point." source: pioneer press ----------------------------- I think, however, that while evaluating Foye we need to keep both his inexperience and his injury in mind. I think Foye has looked much worse this year than he did last year. He doesn't seem to be able to get to the basket as easily, he's takes may more three pointers, and his mid range game seems to have disappeared. Now, I don't think he has an excellent midrange game last year,but I remember him taking and hitting the 15 foot jump shot with more regularity. Something just seems off this year. Also, while McCants has frustrated wolves fans all year, I think most of us would agree that Rashad in the last 20 games represents a huge improvement over Rashad in the first 20 games. McCants has improved this year. After missing almost all of his second year, extensive playing time this year has advanced his game. Hopefully playing out the rest of this season and next season will yield similar improvements in Foye's game. But trading one of these players may be helpful if garners the wolves something else they really need, like a decent defensive minded center.
Andy G (not verified)12:20pm
Apr 3
Utah showed last night why they're the league's toughest to beat at home--once we gave them something in the 3rd--(a few turnovers trying to get Jefferson the ball, and a few open 3 attempts for Okur)--they jump on it and deliver a resounding knockout punch. As for Foye and McCants, I've been saying all year that I like Shaddy as a 6th man type, and that hasn't changed a bit. He's an oddball personality, but with Jefferson assuming a stronger leadership role--(backed by consistent performance on the court)--I worry less and less about Shaddy's mental/emotional makeup hindering his play. I'd be ok with trading him, but only if it's for significant value--a bigtime scoring punch off the bench isn't something to give up for another Kirk Snyder/2nd Round Pick deal. As for Foye, I agree with other posters who say that next year will be a better barometer of his ability and potential, since he missed about 50 games with a knee injury. I don't have any doubt that he's a two-guard in everything but size. However, I don't think he'll always struggle to defend--some of it can maybe be attributed to injury and the rest to inexperience. With Brewer out there, we can at least rest assured that the other team's best wing scorer will be competently defended. Once Foye gets bumped over to the two, he'll be relieved from Chris Paul/Deron Williams/Baron Davis/Tony Parker duty. If matchups ever present major problems, they can always sub accordingly. Since it's impossible to have a meaningful discussion about the future of these two guys without mentioning draft possibilities, I'll just say that Derrick Rose would certainly bump Telfair from the roster, but not necessarily Foye or McCants. Foye can play the 2 and Shaddy can keep his spot as 6th man gunner. This is especially true since Rose shows great perimeter defense, and the pressure on Foye would be reduced. If we don't get Rose, it's a decision between putting faith in Foye to carry us to where we want to go--(and taking a 7-footer)--or taking somebody like Mayo, with a plan in place to ship Foye or McCants for something in return. I admit that a Telfair/Mayo backcourt sounds intriguing (maybe because they are 2 of the most hyped high school players in the history of the world) but it would bring a lot more question marks. However, question marks are better than what is becoming evident, which is Foye is not the type of player you build a championship around. He's gotta be complimentary and not a primary option.
JPFnotJPK (not verified)02:25pm
Apr 3
It's taken me awhile to figure Foye out, and I think I finally got it. It came to me, just now, as I was snorting peyote. Foye = a worse shooting Cuttino Mobley. Undersized-combo-tweener-euphemism for not good enough to play point and not tall enough to be an all-star 2. Decent enough, but no savior. KG, Gay, Noah would be a pretty good frontline. I'm gonna go snort more peyote and imagine that's our frontline.
john dough (not verified)02:37pm
Apr 3
long time reader, first time poster. and i gotta say, i'm getting very close to making this sucker my home page. love your work, Britt, and to everyone else, the polite and erudite comments are always a pleasure to read as well. if only the Wolves games were anywhere close. i just wanted to throw a coupla things out there. i wonder if perhaps the brain trust thinks going out and getting a shot-blocking/rebounding center is not the answer (either financially and/or quality) and that Big Al can be effective as a 5- considering his game, while maybe not his physique, is more of a traditional 5 anyways. not saying i agree, but i wouldn't be surprised. which leads me to draft speculation, everybody's favorite. i started thinking about my above speculation after i watched Beasley for a couple of games. seems to me he duplicates a lot of Big Al's skills, and i went through some serious shudders imagining a Jefferson/Beasley 4/5 combo. sure they can score and rebound, but not much help to a team that seems to let a lot of dribble drive penetration from the perimeter. draft thought part two: why no mention of Danilo Gallinari/Donte Green? to me, a dynamic SF (i know, i know, Rudy Gay) would be a much better addition to the Wolves. not sold on Green, but Gallinari looks like a stud. anywho, thanks for lettin' me ramble, and even moreso, thanks for all the good work!
PMAC (not verified)04:53pm
Apr 4
Im also a bit astonished that Danilo Gallinari doesn't get talked about more often by wolves fans. If we don't get the one or two pick, he would without any doubt be my number 3. Definitely a stud.
TVDave (not verified)05:03pm
Apr 3
Corey Brewer seems to be shooting better lately. He clanked the ball so often during the beginning of the season that my head is still ringing. But is it possible he's learning? Corey's .439 in March to Foye's .441 (Brewer was only .338 in February) As for Foye, he has me worried about the future. Foye is a small 2, so I don't think you can really draft the PG and comfortably move Foye to shooting guard full time. Plus watching Rose play in the tournament, he seems to be a scoring PG and his game is probably redundant with Foye's. Britt, your points about McCants vs. Foye are spot on. Shaddy has improved his game this year, and despite his occasional outbursts, seems to have matured as well. Yet he still seems to have a screw loose somewhere, and isn't the kind of player you build around (despite his appearance on some of the "Let's Build It" swag). I agree with the poster who says Foye looked a little better last year, at least driving the lane. This year he just seems tired and tentative -- which may be why he doesn't expend the energy to defend either. I hope that gets better next year. But as long as Foye is here, I feel like the backcourt situation will be muddy.
Underdog (not verified)11:58am
Apr 4
I will go with the wisdom of Ryan Gomes as expressed in an interview with Steven Litel: "With the guys we have here already, we're gelling together and becoming a team. I think when you look at the teams that are really, really good, they had the players they had on their team for a significant amount of years. It was four or five years before they really started taking off into that next direction." http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=8121 via the Twolvesblog http://www.twolvesblog.com/ Draft the best player available. Drafting by position based on need clouds judgment.
Andy G (not verified)09:23am
Apr 4
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=3327660 Here's a fun story for Wittman-bashers. I doubt Brown feels like rebuilding, but you never know. Maybe if we landed a top pick and had a slightly more promising future.
McCleak (not verified)01:06pm
Apr 6
God, I hope he doesn't even think about joining the Timberwolves. Considering that he screwed with the Pistons postseason by dancing around the New York job, and once he got to New York he spent the entire time complaining that it wasn't what he expected (as if he hadn't seen the hundreds of news stories about how insanely disfuctional MSG has been this decade) until he finally pouted his way out of the contract, I don't see how anyone would expect different here. If he came to Minneapolis, he'd spend the offseason complaining to the media about the team, demand unnecessary or impossible changes, and openly solicit jobs in bigger markets while he was with the team. He should be kept away from the Target Center with a whip and a chair.
Jim (not verified)10:49am
Apr 4
McCants gets a bad rap a lot of times, or at the least a lot less slack from fans than other players would. For example, when Jefferson cussed out Foye for not getting him the ball against Detroit, it indirectly led to a turnover when Foye telegraphed a pass to him. If Shaddy does that he's an out of control head case poisoning the locker room, but since it's Jefferson, it's just a passionate competitor in battle and the incident isn't mentioned. When Shaddy tried a stupid behind the back move on a break away and was called for traveling, he's called a selfish punk street ball show off. If Brewer did that people would have marveled at his effort and ability to run the floor and say he just needs a little confidence. Shaddy may be a bit volatile but I haven't gotten the impression he has major character issues, as many people seem to think. From what I see he's got three major negatives to his game: He spaces out on D, commits far too many stupid fouls and holds onto the ball too long and/or doesn't hit the open man enough on offense. Compared to the fundamental problems most guys on this team have with their games (Foye's lack of a true position, Brewer's lack of strength or any offensive game to name a couple) McCants seems farther along than the rest yet gets the least slack when he screws up.
Dr.K (not verified)10:44am
Apr 5
A most interesting post -- thank you. If this wonderful blogspace has a flaw, it's that it is overbalanced toward statistical analysis. A post like this leavens the discourse a bit by bringing some elements of the psychology of both players and fans into the mix. This post gives me food for thought, since I'm one who grinds his teeth more at McCants' ball pounding than at any other aspect of this team's performance. Jim's thoughtful comments make me take a step back.
gjk (not verified)02:01pm
Apr 5
I agree about McCants. His main flaw as a player is a lack of focus and discipline on the court. However, he's young, and there have been plenty of young players who've been that way (even guys who used to be on this team like Bobby Jackson, Chauncey Billups, and Wally Szczerbiak). But as far as we know, he hasn't had a run-in with this coaching staff. He hasn't had significant legal problems. His reputation seems to be based more on his number of tattoos and his interest in writing poetry. I don't see the point in judging people for harmless off-the-court interests.

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